Very amusing to see that, after the latest round of Conservatives' and the media's increasingly desperate attempts to try and drag Labour down .... the latest poll tonight from YouGov still has Labour at 40% with a 7-point lead.

 

I hope for more meltdowns like this from Tory media cheerleaders who are incredulous at the peasants not being grateful for all the wonders that the supposed economic recovery is bringing.

Edited November 24, 201311 yr by Danny

Brogan's quite balanced as a Tory commentator so I don't think that article's that bad as Tory analyses go. I forget who it was but the guy the other day on Telegraph Blogs who refute the lead with the sole anecdote of a Thatcher comment about not being far enough behind at this point was far worse as stuck out bottom lip Tory commentary goes.

Brogan's quite balanced as a Tory commentator so I don't think that article's that bad as Tory analyses go. I forget who it was but the guy the other day on Telegraph Blogs who refute the lead with the sole anecdote of a Thatcher comment about not being far enough behind at this point was far worse as stuck out bottom lip Tory commentary goes.

 

He might not be that bad in an ideological sense, but he seems to have that typical Westminster-journalist incapability of admitting he's wrong -- in this case, he refuses to concede his assumptions that the economy recovering would benefit the Conservatives or that Labour were destined to lose this election, and instead says it's the public's fault for not realising how good they have it ("Yet to judge by the public’s indifference to the detail of the economic policy argument, a policy that is fundamentally wrong can be made to look good if it is founded on opportunism").

There've been a couple of cracking pieces on why the Tories are doing so badly currently given they've shown they can hit 40 in the polls by one of my favourite writers, Hopi Sen. It's definitely one of the more interesting oddities around at the moment.

The comments about not being far enough behind were made by Jim Messina who won the 2012 election for Obama

 

One of the worlds most respected strategists

 

 

There've been a couple of cracking pieces on why the Tories are doing so badly currently given they've shown they can hit 40 in the polls by one of my favourite writers, Hopi Sen. It's definitely one of the more interesting oddities around at the moment.

 

We are not doing badly at all

 

We are generally 6 or 7 points behind, we have an economy that is gaining a head of steam and homeowners are getting richer by the day, we have nearly 18 months till polling day

 

That is 18 months worth of house price rises, 6 quarters of continued growth, 18 months of falls in unemployment

 

We also have the incumbency effect which can add 2-5 points to us

 

It is a near certainty we will have a tory government after the next election, its only a question of whether it is an outright one or a coalition

Change the record. Homeowners are not "getting richer by the day". If they don't sell their house then its current value is meaningless for most people. Besides, if they wish to move, the cost of their next property is also going up.

 

It has been explained to you many times that the "incumbency effect" is not as strong as you seem to think. Perhaps if you are told enough times (100? 1000?) the message will finally get through.

 

But the biggest flaw of all in your tedious argument is that the recovery is very limited. Most people do not feel better off for the very simple reason (one surely simple enough for even you to understand) that they are not better off. Most people have had three years or more of below inflation pay rises (if they have had a pay rise at all) and that is set to continue.

It is a near certainty we will have a tory government after the next election, its only a question of whether it is an outright one or a coalition

 

Lol.

 

I won't go through the whole debate again, but my main point this time was mainly to gloat about how the Conservatives' attempts to smear Labour with the whole Paul Flowers thing and the Falkirk thing (which also feeds into another Westminster delusion-- the idea that the trade unions are still a big 1980s-style bogeyman) are failing miserably. The Tories might win the next election, but if they do it will be on the issues, not based on trivial gossip like Ed Miliband meeting someone a couple of times, or by David Cameron mindlessly chanting "trade unions!!! Len McCluskey!!!!111" at Prime Minister's Questions every week.

Edited November 24, 201311 yr by Danny

Craig continues to talk absolute rubbish - house price increases will price more people out of the market and NOT make households richer, because funnily enough having to pay more on your monthly repayments doesn't make you richer.

 

Oh and from the Land Registry

Our October HPI shows a monthly change of -0.2%

 

House prices actually FELL in October, a bit shocking given the government are trying to throw absolutely EVERYTHING at it to prop up prices. Looks like they are failing.

Edited November 24, 201311 yr by Doctor Blind

The comments about not being far enough behind were made by Jim Messina who won the 2012 election for Obama

 

One of the worlds most respected strategists

They weren't, they were by Margaret Thatcher. It's a pretty well documented anecdote by this point. Messina just said that the Tories were doing fine at the moment.

We are not doing badly at all

 

We are generally 6 or 7 points behind, we have an economy that is gaining a head of steam and homeowners are getting richer by the day, we have nearly 18 months till polling day

 

That is 18 months worth of house price rises, 6 quarters of continued growth, 18 months of falls in unemployment

 

We also have the incumbency effect which can add 2-5 points to us

 

It is a near certainty we will have a tory government after the next election, its only a question of whether it is an outright one or a coalition

- You're right, you aren't doing that badly. But you aren't doing anywhere near well enough to look like you're winning.

 

- An economy which is gaining a head of steam...and mostly passing on its gains in the South, to people who in likelihood are voting Tory anyway. Hence why the recovery has seen no great boost in Conservative fortunes. Stop going on about house price rises - property owners are on balance far, far more likely to vote Conservative anyway. Hence, house price rises mainly preach to the converted. Also, the big risk for Osborne is that the economy starts doing so well that the Bank of England raises interest rates - at which point all those people with mortgages don't feel quite so well off anymore.

 

- The incumbency effect can add 2-5 points, yes. But 2-5 points in local constituency elections where the MP has a good reputation. The incumbency effect doesn't add points nationally.

 

- I don't really know how you expect anybody to take you seriously when you throw around exaggerations like it being a 'near certainty' that there'll be a Conservative government after the next election. To get to where you'd need to be to win, you will need:

 

: the vast majority of UKIP supporters to come back (which will happen for some, but there's a substantial number of them who don't care if Ed or Cameron get in because they see little difference. Some would probably even prefer Ed to get in for revenge purposes as they imagine a Conservative Party which lost to Ed Miliband would inevitably go more right wing under Gove or Boris and become more attractive to them)

 

: to start actively winning over Labour voters in seats you did not win at the last election - or to start winning more Liberal Democrat votes than Labour in those seats, whilst at the same time not having that nullified by UKIP losses

 

: to lose no more than 25/30 seats to Labour - which will be incredibly difficult given how good the organisation is for Labour in a lot of marginals.

 

And more. It's doable. It's just blowhard pundit commentary to say a Conservative government is a near certainty, especially based on things like house price rises which are at best a corollary for other things that far more accurately decide elections.

Edited November 24, 201311 yr by Cassandra

I never understood the assumption that an economic recovery would automatically benefit the Conservatives anyway. We saw in the 1990s that the Tories won in '92 when the economy was in a huge slump, then got thrashed in '97 when it was booming. As much as all the political journalists parrot "it's the economy stupid" to eachother and obsess over GDP figures, there's little historical evidence that the economy has ever had much direct effect on elections in this country (unemployment rates always used to be a much more reliable indicator of how elections would go than GDP stats, but obviously since the 80s unemployment has stopped being much of a guide as well).

 

Actually, if most people do pick up on the recovery in the official economy (which I'm doubtful that they will), it could backfire if people think the crisis is over and there's now no need for misery. If the Conservatives had gone into the 2015 election saying we were still in crisis and that there was still huge danger, people might have accepted the need for endless austerity purely because of fear of the unknown (even though the Tories always exaggerated that "unknown"). But if they go in saying it's mission accomplished and we're out of the woods, then people are going to say "OK, well it's time for our rewards then". The idea that people were ever going to treat the Conservatives as some "war heroes" just because they supposedly saved us, and that people would vote them back in purely out of gratitude irrespective of what their plans for the future were, was always laughably delusional.

Edited November 24, 201311 yr by Danny

It is a near certainty we will have a tory government after the next election, its only a question of whether it is an outright one or a coalition

 

 

None of the bookies agree with you Craig!!! :) They all have Labour majority or labour led coalition.

Edited November 24, 201311 yr by Common Sense

Change the record. Homeowners are not "getting richer by the day". If they don't sell their house then its current value is meaningless for most people. Besides, if they wish to move, the cost of their next property is also going up.

 

It has been explained to you many times that the "incumbency effect" is not as strong as you seem to think. Perhaps if you are told enough times (100? 1000?) the message will finally get through.

 

But the biggest flaw of all in your tedious argument is that the recovery is very limited. Most people do not feel better off for the very simple reason (one surely simple enough for even you to understand) that they are not better off. Most people have had three years or more of below inflation pay rises (if they have had a pay rise at all) and that is set to continue.

 

They may not but they FEEL richer which is an important factor when it comes to consumer confidence

 

And most people dont feel the recovery atm because its relatively early days for the strong recovery to be felt, if workers start getting good pay rises in 2014 and 2015 then they are more likely to feel the recovery

They weren't, they were by Margaret Thatcher. It's a pretty well documented anecdote by this point. Messina just said that the Tories were doing fine at the moment.

 

Didn't know that, interesting fact, but given she won 3 elections she was kinda right

- You're right, you aren't doing that badly. But you aren't doing anywhere near well enough to look like you're winning.

 

- An economy which is gaining a head of steam...and mostly passing on its gains in the South, to people who in likelihood are voting Tory anyway. Hence why the recovery has seen no great boost in Conservative fortunes. Stop going on about house price rises - property owners are on balance far, far more likely to vote Conservative anyway. Hence, house price rises mainly preach to the converted. Also, the big risk for Osborne is that the economy starts doing so well that the Bank of England raises interest rates - at which point all those people with mortgages don't feel quite so well off anymore.

 

- The incumbency effect can add 2-5 points, yes. But 2-5 points in local constituency elections where the MP has a good reputation. The incumbency effect doesn't add points nationally.

 

- I don't really know how you expect anybody to take you seriously when you throw around exaggerations like it being a 'near certainty' that there'll be a Conservative government after the next election. To get to where you'd need to be to win, you will need:

 

: the vast majority of UKIP supporters to come back (which will happen for some, but there's a substantial number of them who don't care if Ed or Cameron get in because they see little difference. Some would probably even prefer Ed to get in for revenge purposes as they imagine a Conservative Party which lost to Ed Miliband would inevitably go more right wing under Gove or Boris and become more attractive to them)

 

: to start actively winning over Labour voters in seats you did not win at the last election - or to start winning more Liberal Democrat votes than Labour in those seats, whilst at the same time not having that nullified by UKIP losses

 

: to lose no more than 25/30 seats to Labour - which will be incredibly difficult given how good the organisation is for Labour in a lot of marginals.

 

And more. It's doable. It's just blowhard pundit commentary to say a Conservative government is a near certainty, especially based on things like house price rises which are at best a corollary for other things that far more accurately decide elections.

 

Conservative voters are a more determined bunch than other parties, their supporters tend to go out and vote whereas many labour supporters tend to stay at home

 

I am not concerned about UKIP tbh, mid term protest party thats it as far as i am concerned, i think the absolute majority of people who vote UKIP will return to the fold on election day, i really dont see UKIP getting double figures nationally, Farage may win a seat because of his fame but thats it imho

 

Plus also first time house buyers are more likely to vote tory than labour, the more first time buyers between now and 2015 the better for us

 

Plus we have another secret weapon, Boris Johnson, by far the most popular politician in the country, Messina wants to use him extensively on the campaign trail, the Boris effect will help win over people, especially younger voters

They may not but they FEEL richer which is an important factor when it comes to consumer confidence

And where is your evidence for that? Or have you just made it up?

And where is your evidence for that? Or have you just made it up?

 

Anecdotal evidence having spoken to friends / acquaintances / family who have bought property

 

House prices rise people can borrow off the equity, they feel comfortable to because house prices continue to go up

Plus we have another secret weapon, Boris Johnson, by far the most popular politician in the country, Messina wants to use him extensively on the campaign trail, the Boris effect will help win over people, especially younger voters

 

You're making the mistake of thinking popularity = guaranteed votes. I mean, don't forget Boris himself barely won re-election last year, so the idea that his popularity would somehow win over votes for a set of other people is a bit fanciful.

 

And I think you're a bit too optimistic about UKIP melting away - anti-establishment parties have been doing well in virtually EVERY election over the past few years, the mainstream parties have become that unpopular. Plus, if the immigration figures from Romania and Bulgaria are anywhere near as high as is being suggested, that would probably help them. Not to mention, as I've said before, the Tories completely misunderstand that a huge proportion of UKIP voters are actually people who hate the Tories, and some "vote UKIP, get Miliband" message would have no effect since they hate all mainstream parties equally.

You're making the mistake of thinking popularity = guaranteed votes. I mean, don't forget Boris himself barely won re-election last year, so the idea that his popularity would somehow win over votes for a set of other people is a bit fanciful.

 

And I think you're a bit too optimistic about UKIP melting away - anti-establishment parties have been doing well in virtually EVERY election over the past few years, the mainstream parties have become that unpopular. Plus, if the immigration figures from Romania and Bulgaria are anywhere near as high as is being suggested, that would probably help them. Not to mention, as I've said before, the Tories completely misunderstand that a huge proportion of UKIP voters are actually people who hate the Tories, and some "vote UKIP, get Miliband" message would have no effect since they hate all mainstream parties equally.

 

UKIP are the most establishment out of all the parties, the public do not realise that yet because they are caught up in the cult of Farage but come the sharp end, the general election, there will be a lot more scrutiny and UKIP will come unstuck imho

 

Farage is a public school educated investment banker who wants Lord Sugar and his cleaner to be paying tax at the same rate, cant get much more establishment than that

 

Just most of the public dont know that yet