And just to reinforce the point about there being a massive bias towards the south east... apparently, "money is no object" as soon as the Home County middle-class south-easterners have to finally face a bit of hardship, yet the regions of the UK that otherwise face devastation are told that the top priority is satisfying "the markets" and they'll just have to suffer.

Edited February 12, 201411 yr by Danny

As much as I get your point, you could hardly claim that a similar incident up north wouldn't have had the same reaction.

And just to reinforce the point about there being a massive bias towards the south east... apparently, "money is no object" as soon as the Home County middle-class south-easterners have to finally face a bit of hardship, yet the regions of the UK that otherwise face devastation are told that the top priority is satisfying "the markets" and they'll just have to suffer.

 

There are a lot of tory constituencies in the south west and some lib dem ones that we are hoping to gain in 2015

 

Your post is a tin foil hat job Danny tbh

The irony being that your post has a tinfoil hat theory in it itself!

The irony being that your post has a tinfoil hat theory in it itself!

 

I just don't see a situation where a tory government would shaft a whole region of tory voters and potential tory voters when the 2015 election is too close to call, it would be political suicide

 

We have dithered and been slow off the mark but I don't for a moment believe that we would have screwed over south western voters who would almost certainly not vote for us in 2015 if we did

Problem is 'too many cooks'

 

Is the crisis an environment dept problem? a transport dept problem? a home office problem? a local authorities (Eric Pickles) problem?

 

That is 4 government departments dealing with the 1 issue and each one is saying 'have a word with him in x department, its not down to us', so confusion has reigned as to who should be running the show

 

Now Cameron has taken personal charge things are speeding up

As much as I get your point, you could hardly claim that a similar incident up north wouldn't have had the same reaction.

 

Hmm, I'm not totally convinced. Hell, there's been some damage here in the northwest by strong winds today (not as much - yet - as down south admittedly), but I somehow doubt we're going to hear "money is no object".

 

There are a lot of tory constituencies in the south west and some lib dem ones that we are hoping to gain in 2015

 

Your post is a tin foil hat job Danny tbh

 

I'm not actually suggesting the Tories give the south-east special treatment purely because it's where their supporters are. In fact, I'm not even saying it's just Tory politicians who do it. Pretty much the entire media (even ones who are left-wing) feel the south-east is most important and somehow deserves special treatment. I'm not saying they're deliberately being heartless, but they all move in such narrow circles, pretty much all of them only have the south-east as their frame of reference, all their family and all the people they talk to on a daily basis live there, so most of them are genuinely unaware of what happens in the rest of the country or how people in other parts of the country feel about things. They think things that happen in the south-east are a bigger deal simply because all the people they talk to are also from the south-east, and same for thinking popular opinions in the south-east take precedence over popular opinions everywhere else.

Edited February 12, 201411 yr by Danny

As much as I get your point, you could hardly claim that a similar incident up north wouldn't have had the same reaction.

As somebody pointed out on another site - Cameron only got his wellies on when the waters started to lap the playing fields of Eton.

 

Now that Eric Pickles (just seen him now and this man truly does make me feel quite ill) has said that we are suddenly a rich country - that the government will pay to put the roof back on my house tonight after it blows off! Of course not - our house is north of Watford.

So, despite the supposedly "booming" economy and "miraculous" unemployment figures, the Conservatives are still well behind, now just a few weeks away from it being 2 full years since they last had a lead in any poll.

 

Never fear though, even if you can't win on the issues, the Tories have a plan on winning by accusing Labour of being paedophile apologists and reviving the hilarious "Marxist" attack on a politician who has a more right-wing economic policy than Tony Blair. You couldn't make it up.

So, despite the supposedly "booming" economy and "miraculous" unemployment figures, the Conservatives are still well behind, now just a few weeks away from it being 2 full years since they last had a lead in any poll.

 

Never fear though, even if you can't win on the issues, the Tories have a plan on winning by accusing Labour of being paedophile apologists and reviving the hilarious "Marxist" attack on a politician who has a more right-wing economic policy than Tony Blair. You couldn't make it up.

 

I do think Harman has a case to answer, while I do not for one moment think she supports paedophilia this does rightly question the judgement of someone who could possibly be deputy pm in 2 years time.

 

I am not too worried about the polls atm, they are stubborn but there is 15 months to go nearly till next election

 

2 potential giveaway budgets

15 months of falling unemployment

5 quarters of strong growth

15 months of low inflation and low interest rates

 

Good news is not a trickle now it is a flood

I do think Harman has a case to answer, while I do not for one moment think she supports paedophilia this does rightly question the judgement of someone who could possibly be deputy pm in 2 years time.

 

I am not too worried about the polls atm, they are stubborn but there is 15 months to go nearly till next election

 

2 potential giveaway budgets

15 months of falling unemployment

5 quarters of strong growth

15 months of low inflation and low interest rates

 

Good news is not a trickle now it is a flood

So fifteen months of hammering the same message which has failed to get through over the last six months - not exactly a game changer, especially given Labour's gameplan is so obviously to keep throwing out populist policies in order to keep that lead.

 

And let's not even get onto the seat implications of the polls.

All the points that Craig raises are massively negated by the fact that wages continue to lag behind inflation, despite inflation being at its lowest for 5 years. People don't feel wealthier, and won't until longer after the election in May '15 even if this growth continues at the rate it has managed since mid-2013.

 

As for the Daily Mail; if they want to forever live in the past, it is worth once again reminding people that they supported fascism in the 1930s.

The key to everything is UKIP, we are haemmoraging supporters to UKIP compared with 2010, if they return to the fold in 2015 like i suspect many of them probably will, then we have a chance of outright power or being the largest party in a coalition. One of the top people in my local association reckons we have lost about 7% of our supporters to UKIP since 2010, if we can get say 5% of those 7% back then we have a fighting chance

 

To win the next election:

 

Osbourne has to cut taxes, particularly for the lower paid, he has to carry out his alleged promise to up the minimum wage to £7 an hour, both of those would be popular with lower earners

 

Crosby has to bang the drum repeatedly about how a vote for UKIP is a vote for Labour by the back door

 

IDS has to keep lowering the benefit cap, strike while the iron is hot post Benefits Street

 

I am still confident that most of our UKIP people will return

Apart from the fact that a massive chunk of the people who've gone to UKIP couldn't care less about who wins out of Miliband or Cameron - they think the current Conservative Party is little better than the Labour Party. Indeed, a lot of them actively WANT a Miliband victory, as they think the impact of a Labour government would be so bad it would force the Conservatives to return to 'traditional values' and a more right-wing economic message.

Anyway, the Harman-PIE thing is hilarious desperation. It's old news - it's been public knowledge since the 1970s, and the world hasn't fallen in by having Harman in her position. It's a little like screaming 'HOW CAN WE TRUST ANYBODY WHO WAS IN THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY AT THE SAME TIME AS THE RACIST MONDAY CLUB WAS AFFILIATED TO THEM' - old, irrelevant news which smears people who had little to do with affiliated organisations.

I agree Labour shouldn't be pretending spending cuts can lead to improved public services (and I'd disagree that it's 'happy-clappy New Labour fantasy' - the national insurance increase to pay for the NHS was very much a message that if people want good services, they should expect to have to pay for them. New Labour never made out that you could magically deliver better services and cuts at the same time, at least without reform alongside).

 

Cuts could improve services, say Labour !!!

 

Come on, you can't seriously tell me you think this is a believable (or indeed "credible") message? :lol:

Labour have reached their glass ceiling, 38% or so, that is the absolute most they can expect in an election but they will not get that, i would be surprised if they get more than 34%, probably nearer 32%

 

Plus Shapps has announced plans to rebrand us as the 'workers party' so the battle lines are drawn, we will focus hard on working people, probably bribe them with a few tax cuts and an increase in the minimum wage and paint labour as the benefits party, expect a constant drip drip effect in the right wing media of continual stories of benefit cheats and employers being wheeled out to say they cant fill a vacancy

 

Crosby's 'dog whistle' in full effect, and it will work

Yeah, but no one will actually believe that the tory party is the 'workers party'. It's an ACTUAL FACT (I know you hate those, but it's about time you f***ing used some) that pay is desperately lagging behind inflation leading to real terms wage cuts of massive proportions. In the Higher Education sector (Using my sector here as I know the actual facts on it as opposed to just generalising the UK based on my experience) the unions are currently pushing for a larger pay increase than the stingy 1% that has been offered (and implemented by my Uni). They argue that 5 years of below inflationary increases has seen University staff suffer a 13% pay cut in real terms. That is predominantly over the life of the coalition government. This is a reality across the whole country and until wages start to rise faster than inflation and until people are better off than they were in 2007, there will not be a chance in hell of a tory government.

 

 

Sorry craig but facts are facts. They can not be manipulated to a tory agenda. It's why they are very careful about what stats they shout about because they pick the only positive indicator in a swarm of negative indicators. Consumer confidence is low, sales are low, but YAY house prices have risen.

Labour have reached their glass ceiling, 38% or so, that is the absolute most they can expect in an election but they will not get that, i would be surprised if they get more than 34%, probably nearer 32%

 

Plus Shapps has announced plans to rebrand us as the 'workers party' so the battle lines are drawn, we will focus hard on working people, probably bribe them with a few tax cuts and an increase in the minimum wage and paint labour as the benefits party, expect a constant drip drip effect in the right wing media of continual stories of benefit cheats and employers being wheeled out to say they cant fill a vacancy

 

Crosby's 'dog whistle' in full effect, and it will work

 

Please tell me you're joking. This is exactly the same as the laughably lame "One Nation Labour" (which thankfully seems to have died a death). It really is quite amusing and insulting at the same time that these people think some vacuous slogan/soundbite is going to change people's minds, rather than actual policies.

 

With that said, despite my constant sneering at your posts, I am starting to increasingly think the Conservatives might get a majority, on a shockingly low turnout, because with the best will in the world I really can't see already-disillusioned Labour supporters flocking to the polling booths to vote for a party promising more cuts and endlessly prattling on about "zero-based spending reviews" and "public service reform". Frankly I'm starting to think it's probably in Labour's interests for them to lose - if we're going to get Tory policies eitherway after 2015, it may as well be a Tory government carrying them out, and then maybe when they see that a Tory-lite policy platform doesn't even work in getting them votes then there'll be a SLIGHT chance of a Labour Party reverting to being....an actual Labour Party, the kind which was so successful for so many years, rather than "New Labour" which succeeded electorally for two elections but then started bombing at an alarming rate.

Edited February 25, 201411 yr by Danny

That Marxist poster is hilarious. Surely they could have learnt a lesson from the Daily Mail to NOT attack Miliband!