Indications are Labour have won by atleast 10%. Pretty solid. It would be their biggest margin of victory EVER in the constituency, bigger even than the 1997 landslide!

I'm going to hazard a guess of a majority of 3,000 for Labour. Not spectacular but enough.

That's roughly what the BBC are suggesting. If the Tory vote has been squeezed that may mean the Lib Dem share of the vote has gone up.

I've been following byelections for over 30 years. The party representatives and BBC correspondents are coming a lot closer to calling the result before it's announced than they have in the past.

The Guardian are reporting Labour have got 45% of the vote - which would be 13% up on their election result. That would suggest what we've all confirmed - that, even if the margin of victory is quite tight, it's only because the Lib Dems have been artificially propped up by tactical Tories.

The Guardian are reporting Labour have got 45% of the vote - which would be 13% up on their election result. That would suggest what we've all confirmed - that, even if the margin of victory is quite tight, it's only because the Lib Dems have been artificially propped up by tactical Tories.

If that is true and the majority is approx 3000 the Lib Dems will have got roughly the same number of votes as in the General Election and, given the lower turnout, a larger share of the vote.

Tim Farron claiming a Labour win would be a score draw. Oh dear...

Having watched the coverage on BBC News, I'm starting to reach the conclusion that politics would be a lot better without any politicians.

 

On a slight side note, if the BNP do poorly in this election (ie. they lose their desposit), it could as well be the final nail in their ill-shaped coffin.

Tim Farron claiming a Labour win would be a score draw. Oh dear...

His point was that both Labour and Lib Dems can claim to have done reasonably well. After all, if the votes had reflected national opinion polls, the Lib Dems would have finished a poor third. If the result is as expected Labour will be pleased, Lib Dems will be relieved and Tories will shrug it off.

Having watched the coverage on BBC News, I'm starting to reach the conclusion that politics would be a lot better without any politicians.

 

On a slight side note, if the BNP do poorly in this election (ie. they lose their desposit), it could as well be the final nail in their ill-shaped coffin.

The BNP have had some success in Oldham so it will indeed be good news if they do very badly.

Yeah, if the BNP can't get a decent showing in a by-election in Oldham (which is one of the biggest, if not THE biggest, hotbetds of racial tensions in the country), they're finished thankfully.

There's been talk about the BNP being in financial pressure & the structure of the party is causing problems, so a decrease in their vote would cause a lot of problems.

 

And now the BBC is advertising a political betting site. Thankfully my days of complaining to Ofcom are over.

 

 

Yeah, if the BNP can't get a decent showing in a by-election in Oldham (which is one of the biggest, if not THE biggest, hotbetds of racial tensions in the country), they're finished thankfully.

 

Although if the BNP does fold, another party will probably fill in their void. Every political system needs a party that everybody loves to hate, and the BNP played that role spectacularly.

 

Seeing the attitudes of the Labour party, giving their candidate a bouquet of flowers so publically in front of the Conservatives, is really rubbing salt in their wounds.

I think I just spotted Dennis Pennis wearing a Labour rosette. Takes all sorts, I suppose.

And here's a preview of what to expect at the announcement:

 

I'm going to hazard a guess of a majority of 3,000 for Labour. Not spectacular but enough.

^_^

Labour have won with a majority of 3500. Decent!

Labour JUST missed outpolling the combined Coalition vote. That shows just to what extent the Lib Dems depended on the patronising soft-peddling of the Tory campaign.

As looked likely the Lib Dem share of the vote was almost unchanged. Tory voters switched to the Lib Dems and Lib Dem voters switched to Labour.

As looked likely the Lib Dem share of the vote was almost unchanged. Tory voters switched to the Lib Dems and Lib Dem voters switched to Labour.

 

Seems like a complex version of musical chairs then.

 

The BNP's vote was halved, so bad times for them.

 

Two more by-elections in the next few months, plus the Northern Irish Assembly and council elections. It's going to be an exciting few months in politics.

All in all, a very satisfying night for Labour. The fact this was a three-way marginal 8 months ago and has now been transformed into a safe Labour seat for the first time shows how the political landscape has changed. While it's not a vote of great enthusiasm for Labour, it's certainly a vote of disgust in the Coalition, in an area that isn't anything like a Labour heartland (at general elections, their support in this constituency has usually been a bit BELOW their national percentage), and it indicates that national opinion polls that put Labour firmly in the lead are broadly correct.

 

Bad night for both Coalition parties. It's getting increasingly clear for the Lib Dems that, assuming AV doesn't pass and that they stay in the Coalition for the full 5 years, they'll depend on Tory tactical voters to even have a chance of their vote holding up - and the fact that, even in spite of a concerted effort on the Tories' part to prop up the Lib Dems (some Oldham residents were claiming Tory activists had abandoned all pretences on the night before the poll and were actually knocking on doors telling people to vote Lib Dem), the Lib Dems STILL couldn't come remotely close to taking the seat in the tightest Lib-Lab marginal in the country, shows that strategy is doomed to failure. It's clearly not going to be anymore effective in any other Lib-Lab marginals, and obviously, in southern Tory-Lib marginals, Tories will vote for their own party while Labour supporters will no longer be willing to lend their vote to the Libs - meaning they'll be slaughtered there too.

 

Obviously a catastrophic night for the Tories, and will increase the fury backbenchers have towards Cameron. If they ever want to get a substantial majority again, this is really the type of northern seat they need to win (some affluent areas mixed with a history of working-class Protestantism), considering this seat is one that even John Major managed to take in his wafer-thin majority of 1992, and the fact they've failed so miserably should be an alarming sign.

 

Overall, like I say, a good night for Labour, although it's definitely more a vote of disgust at the Coalition parties than it is a vote of enthusiasm for Labour and Ed Miliband. Labour have pretty much won the "are the Coalition's cuts fair?" argument, which I think was the driving force behind this win; now they need to decontaminate the Labour government's economic record (driving home the fact the deficit was primarily caused by the global banking crisis, not overspending) and Ed needs to present himself as a Prime Minister-in-waiting. And I do think they need to do it relatively quickly, because I'd still be willing to wager the next election will come before the London Olympics.