January 27, 201115 yr What are the chances of JLS overtaking Katy B and climbing back into the Top 10? They are higher than her on iTunes I believe Slim I would say as Katy B had a decent lead over JLS when they were iTunes #11 and she was iTunes #10 as she still had the iTunes top 10 effect that they'd lost. They'll need to reverse that over the next few days; but given that they're both now out of the iTunes top 10 I don't see that happening.
January 27, 201115 yr Maybe when it's released as a single in the future? But it is already quite high on iTunes.
January 27, 201115 yr But it is already quite high on iTunes. Yeah. So it's good bets it'll be the 3rd single, and it will probably enter the top 40 then. However, in terms of this week, I doubt it, although I hope she does. I mean, we've seen album tracks go top 20 on iTunes and miss the top 40 before. I don't know why, but album tracks that a cherry-picked always chart insanely lower officially. Like Blah Blah Blah got to #3 on iTunes, got #11 officially. Love the Way You Lie got to #2 on iTunes, charted #7 officially. Airplanes got to #12 on iTunes, charted #20-something officially. Telephone got to #15 on iTunes, charted #30 officially. The worst was Ridin' Solo, which got to #19 on iTunes, and charted #44 officially. Album tracks would have a much higher chance of charting top 40 if they were released on Sundays, for starters. However, I reckon Adele might still climb a little bit from her current mid-week position. I'd guess if we had the top 75 midweeks, she might be #48 or something, and even though she's dropped to #33 on iTunes now, that's still higher than he mid-week. Like some people think, if you fall on iTunes, you fall in the mid-weeks, but depending on the situation, falling on iTunes might just mean you climb more slowly. To sum up, I don't think Adele will make top 40, although I think she'll be close (maybe #44 or something?), and I hope she does make it. EDIT: I've just heard Adele on Radio 1, and now all her album tracks are climbing, so maybe she will make it!! Edited January 27, 201115 yr by Eric_Blob
January 27, 201115 yr Yeah. So it's good bets it'll be the 3rd single, and it will probably enter the top 40 then. However, in terms of this week, I doubt it, although I hope she does. I mean, we've seen album tracks go top 20 on iTunes and miss the top 40 before. I don't know why, but album tracks that a cherry-picked always chart insanely lower officially. Like Blah Blah Blah got to #3 on iTunes, got #11 officially. Love the Way You Lie got to #2 on iTunes, charted #7 officially. Airplanes got to #12 on iTunes, charted #20-something officially. Telephone got to #15 on iTunes, charted #30 officially. The worst was Ridin' Solo, which got to #19 on iTunes, and charted #44 officially. Album tracks would have a much higher chance of charting top 40 if they were released on Sundays, for starters. However, I reckon Adele might still climb a little bit from her current mid-week position. I'd guess if we had the top 75 midweeks, she might be #48 or something, and even though she's dropped to #33 on iTunes now, that's still higher than he mid-week. Like some people think, if you fall on iTunes, you fall in the mid-weeks, but depending on the situation, falling on iTunes might just mean you climb more slowly. To sum up, I don't think Adele will make top 40, although I think she'll be close (maybe #44 or something?), and I hope she does make it. EDIT: I've just heard Adele on Radio 1, and now all her album tracks are climbing, so maybe she will make it!! Yep, there are 2 primary reasons for this:- 1. Album tracks are not released until the album is available at 00:01 on Monday. Therefore they miss a whole day of sales on Sunday, putting them at an immediate disadvantage.A nice simple pro-rata method to illustrate this is because they are only available 6 days out of 7, multiply their average iTunes position at 11:59pm Monday-Saturday by a factor of 1.17 (7 divided by 6). So e.g. if they were at positions 30, 20, 15, 15, 20 and 35 on Monday-Saturday 11:59pm, their average iTunes position would be 22.5. But because they're only available 6 days out of 7, multiply this by 7/6 and you get a "revised" average of 26.25. In actual fact, this pro-rata factor of 1.17 is higher, because Sunday is the biggest sales day, therefore probably resetting the factor to around 1.30, assuming a sales distribution of 23%, 16%, 12%, 10%, 10%, 13% and 16% Sunday-Saturday. That would reset an iTunes average Monday-Saturday position of 22.5 for an album track to 29.22 as an estimate for the average chart (i.e. down 6 or 7 places). 2. Similar to the above, album tracks are generally at their lowest position at 11:59 on any week day on a Saturday, therefore their Saturday sales are lower than e.g. established songs that have been charting for 1-2 months. As their "weighting" on a Saturday is high (e.g. 16% of the full week's sales using the above distribution) compared with e.g. Wednesday/Thursday (10%) when album tracks are generally highest on iTunes, they are getting "pulled down" as a result, or as you've explained Eric, they're not climbing as fast (depending on where they are in the midweeks at that point) or even being overtaken by other tracks that get the weekend effect. Using the above method at the end of the week would generally put an album track "revised average" iTunes position about 3-6 places above their actual chart position; with the residual differential being made up by the absence of physical sales for that track, and also that album tracks generally tend to chart higher on iTunes that other sites (with these other sites therefore pulling their revised average iTunes position downwards).
January 27, 201115 yr Yep, there are 2 primary reasons for this:- 1. Album tracks are not released until the album is available at 00:01 on Monday. Therefore they miss a whole day of sales on Sunday, putting them at an immediate disadvantage.A nice simple pro-rata method to illustrate this is because they are only available 6 days out of 7, multiply their average iTunes position at 11:59pm Monday-Saturday by a factor of 1.17 (7 divided by 6). So e.g. if they were at positions 30, 20, 15, 15, 20 and 35 on Monday-Saturday 11:59pm, their average iTunes position would be 22.5. But because they're only available 6 days out of 7, multiply this by 7/6 and you get a "revised" average of 26.25. In actual fact, this pro-rata factor of 1.17 is higher, because Sunday is the biggest sales day, therefore probably resetting the factor to around 1.30, assuming a sales distribution of 23%, 16%, 12%, 10%, 10%, 13% and 16% Sunday-Saturday. That would reset an iTunes average Monday-Saturday position of 22.5 for an album track to 29.22 as an estimate for the average chart (i.e. down 6 or 7 places). 2. Similar to the above, album tracks are generally at their lowest position at 11:59 on any week day on a Saturday, therefore their Saturday sales are lower than e.g. established songs that have been charting for 1-2 months. As their "weighting" on a Saturday is high (e.g. 16% of the full week's sales using the above distribution) compared with e.g. Wednesday/Thursday (10%) when album tracks are generally highest on iTunes, they are getting "pulled down" as a result, or as you've explained Eric, they're not climbing as fast (depending on where they are in the midweeks at that point) or even being overtaken by other tracks that get the weekend effect. Using the above method at the end of the week would generally put an album track "revised average" iTunes position about 3-6 places above their actual chart position; with the differential being made up by the absence of physical sales for that track, and also that album tracks generally tend to chart higher on iTunes that other sites (with these other sites therefore pulling their revised average iTunes position downwards). Yeah, that all makes sense (unlike everything I write :lol:). Especially missing out on the Sunday sales, I think that must hurt the most. I should just quote that post everytime I need to explain this to anybody. :lol: Edited January 27, 201115 yr by spiidey
January 27, 201115 yr I'm really hoping P!nk can get top 10 with FP. It's #16 on iTunes and the video's only been out a couple of days and just added to R1 too. It's fantastic and far better than RYG [which has sold over 200k despite missing the top 10 so all's rosy].
January 27, 201115 yr Thursday Update Top 40 Only Singles 1 Ke$ha 2 Bruno Mars 3 Adele 4 Chase & Status/Liam Bailey 5 Diddy - Dirty Money/Skylar Grey Top 15 12 Martin Solvieg/Dragonette Hoorah for Martin Solvieg/Dragonette, I can't get over it's ascent! Seems to have been hovering around 14 to 18 on iTunes all week and the other version seems to be dropping, currently #92. The bundle is 46 on iTunes "albums" Although it's the 11th on amazon (taking out the free songs) Not in the Top 20 on 7 digital 13th on Play I hope Dragonette get a UK deal out of this!
January 27, 201115 yr Yep, there are 2 primary reasons for this:- 1. Album tracks are not released until the album is available at 00:01 on Monday. Therefore they miss a whole day of sales on Sunday, putting them at an immediate disadvantage.A nice simple pro-rata method to illustrate this is because they are only available 6 days out of 7, multiply their average iTunes position at 11:59pm Monday-Saturday by a factor of 1.17 (7 divided by 6). So e.g. if they were at positions 30, 20, 15, 15, 20 and 35 on Monday-Saturday 11:59pm, their average iTunes position would be 22.5. But because they're only available 6 days out of 7, multiply this by 7/6 and you get a "revised" average of 26.25. In actual fact, this pro-rata factor of 1.17 is higher, because Sunday is the biggest sales day, therefore probably resetting the factor to around 1.30, assuming a sales distribution of 23%, 16%, 12%, 10%, 10%, 13% and 16% Sunday-Saturday. That would reset an iTunes average Monday-Saturday position of 22.5 for an album track to 29.22 as an estimate for the average chart (i.e. down 6 or 7 places). 2. Similar to the above, album tracks are generally at their lowest position at 11:59 on any week day on a Saturday, therefore their Saturday sales are lower than e.g. established songs that have been charting for 1-2 months. As their "weighting" on a Saturday is high (e.g. 16% of the full week's sales using the above distribution) compared with e.g. Wednesday/Thursday (10%) when album tracks are generally highest on iTunes, they are getting "pulled down" as a result, or as you've explained Eric, they're not climbing as fast (depending on where they are in the midweeks at that point) or even being overtaken by other tracks that get the weekend effect. Using the above method at the end of the week would generally put an album track "revised average" iTunes position about 3-6 places above their actual chart position; with the residual differential being made up by the absence of physical sales for that track, and also that album tracks generally tend to chart higher on iTunes that other sites (with these other sites therefore pulling their revised average iTunes position downwards). Thanks, I hope it does make it eventually, it's too pretty not to be a single.
January 27, 201115 yr There's a chance but its close to zero - unless she performs it somewhere (unlikely) its probably got a 0.001% chance of being top 40 officially this week as its already dropping on iTunes from its peak of approx #24 (down to #32 now) - it would have needed to have got into the top 20 on iTunes and stayed there for a few days Wednesday-Friday to stand ANY chance unfortunately. p.s. Love the music on your shuffle chart. :) It's now back up to a new peak of #20 so hopefully it still has a chance. Edited January 27, 201115 yr by ★BlindFaithBray★
January 27, 201115 yr It looks likely it will go top 40 now! It was #33 earlier today, so I thought it was going to keep falling. Adele was on Radio 1 today, so that's the only thing I can think of that caused the boost.
January 27, 201115 yr Hooray for Pink being top 40, hoped Adele's "Someone Like You" would get top 40 as well, is there any chance of this happening? I'd say the chances are really high as its now #20 on iTunes and has been top 40 on iTunes since Monday! :D
January 27, 201115 yr It's now back up to a new peak of #20 so hopefully it still has a chance. Yeah I reckon it could make it - to do so it will probably have to stay around the #20 mark well into Saturday.
January 27, 201115 yr Like Blah Blah Blah got to #3 on iTunes, got #11 officially. No way!! I don't remember that - was it the week that Animal was released ? :) It peaked at #7 in America in it's first week :)
January 27, 201115 yr No way!! I don't remember that - was it the week that Animal was released ? :) It peaked at #7 in America in it's first week :) Here you go!! :D http://i83.photobucket.com/albums/j313/predicta/iTunes/iTunes2010Feb6.jpg That was from just before/after it got to #3. It just goes to show though, how disadvantaged album tracks are, for the reasons explained above. :( To be that high on iTunes and miss the top 10! I do think Adele should make top 40 this week, however. :)
January 28, 201115 yr Do we know if Adele's album has been released in America this week too? I wonder if she'll get to number 1 there?
January 28, 201115 yr Do we know if Adele's album has been released in America this week too? I wonder if she'll get to number 1 there? It's been out since like October in America.
January 28, 201115 yr It's been out since like October in America. Uhmmm, no it's out in February in America.
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