http://www.escnation.com/index.php?section=15

 

One of my favourite things about the season is predictions for how the results are going to me. Despite, or maybe because, they're always wrong... Post your simulations here :)

Current odds and diaspora:

 

 

1. France (251)

2. Estonia (215)

3. Russia (202)

4. Azerbaijan (174)

5. United Kingdom (155)

6. Sweden (120)

7. Hungary (119)

8. Bosnia Herzegovina (117)

9. Italy (106)

10. Germany (104)

11. Austria (98)

12. Slovenia (95)

13. Norway (90)

14. Denmark (87)

15. Serbia (83)

16. Turkey (81)

17. Armenia (72)

18. Ireland (63)

19. Poland (55)

20. Romania (49)

21. Belgium (37)

22. Switzerland (35)

23. Ukraine (33)

24. Spain (32)

25. Georgia (21)

Edited April 10, 201114 yr by Cal

Wow, clearly it's wide open this year! I just did the same and got this...

 

1. Estonia (218)

2. Hungary (214)

3. Bosnia Herzegovina (156)

4. Croatia (131)

5. Norway (125)

6. Turkey (124)

7. Germany (122)

8. Israel (119)

9. Ukraine (118)

10. Armenia (105)

11. Moldova (103)

12. Denmark (101)

13. France (101)

14. United Kingdom (94)

15. Azerbaijan (88)

16. Poland (86)

17. Spain (80)

18. Russia (76)

19. Austria (68)

20. Greece (59)

21. Ireland (51)

22. Romania (51)

23. Slovenia (48)

24. Georgia (31)

25. Italy (25)

 

SHOCKING stuff. Ukraine were actually winning early on believe it or not, but Estonia and Hungary were top 3 throughout, and Estonia literally snatched it in the last vote when San Marino gave them 12 and gave Hungary nothing :o No Sweden in the final, guess he isn't THAT popular :kink: And poor brave Italy bringing up the rear :snif:

 

Semi results:

 

SF1

 

1. Hungary (163)

2. Croatia (115)

3. Norway (109)

4. Armenia (93)

5. Georgia (89)

6. Turkey (87)

7. Russia (83)

8. Poland (81)

9. Azerbaijan (77)

10. Greece (64)

11. Finland (59)

12. Switzerland (53)

13. Albania (46)

14. Serbia (35)

15. Lithuania (20)

16. Iceland (16)

17. Portugal (11)

 

SF2

 

1. Estonia (163)

2. Israel (122)

3. Bosnia Herzegovina (120)

4. Slovenia (111)

5. Ireland (107)

6. Ukraine (92)

7. Moldova (90)

8. Austria (90)

9. Romania (79)

10. Denmark (63)

11. Latvia (55)

12. Slovakia (50)

13. Netherlands (31)

14. Sweden (30)

15. Cyprus (24)

16. Belgium (17)

17. Belarus (15)

Chances Of Winning // Completely Random

Neighbour/Diaspora Votes // On

 

OOOOOOOOH at them having a running order now, interesting!

 

1. Netherlands (218)

2. United Kingdom (207)

3. Germany (187)

4. Bosnia Herzegovina (183)

5. France (171)

6. Lithuania (156)

7. Belarus (153)

8. Portugal (125)

9. Russia (114)

10. Serbia (110)

11. Azerbaijan (110)

12. Norway (101)

13. Armenia (98)

14. Poland (93)

15. Ukraine (78)

16. Hungary (75)

17. FYR Macedonia (59)

18. Iceland (58)

19. Slovenia (49)

20. Moldova (43)

21. Sweden (28)

22. Bulgaria (25)

23. Italy (23)

24. Austria (17)

 

Last vote, and Netherlands got the 12 to win.

How long does the bloody thing take. It's been going on 'faster' speed for 10mins, not even half-way through :(

 

Might not post my results, as I assigned the chances

With current odds and diaspora;

 

1. Estonia (206)

2. Russia (177)

3. Azerbaijan (174)

4. United Kingdom (159)

5. Armenia (151)

6. Hungary (148)

7. Ireland (144)

8. France (142)

9. Denmark (123)

10. Germany (119)

11. Israel (119)

12. Sweden (118)

13. Italy (102)

14. Bosnia Herzegovina (79)

15. Turkey (74)

16. Romania (70)

17. Croatia (69)

18. Poland (59)

19. Norway (50)

20. Moldova (48)

21. Finland (45)

22. Switzerland (37)

23. Austria (33)

24. Latvia (29)

25. Spain (19)

 

Estonia and Azerbaijan were top 2 from about a quarter of the way in, with Estonia only becoming a clear winner 3 votes from the end, and Russia becoming second on the very last vote.

 

Might not post my results, as I assigned the chances

 

You might as well, it won't be any more random than Rob's :kink: Netherlands winning :lol:

 

By the way am I the only one who thinks Hungary will be the fan favourite to underperform this year? It's very good, but her live vocals haven't been perfect and Hungary don't have much of a diaspora...

You might as well, it won't be any more random than Rob's :kink: Netherlands winning :lol:

 

By the way am I the only one who thinks Hungary will be the fan favourite to underperform this year? It's very good, but her live vocals haven't been perfect and Hungary don't have much of a diaspora...

 

I've readied myself for Hungary failing to qualify. It could so easily do a Selma 2005 :(

WOW WOW WOW i just set odds/diaspora and run this thing. Was VERY interesting. Romania and UK fought for DEATH with each other in the Top 2 in the first 3/4 of the voting. But from the halfway Estonia appeared in the 3rd place and gradually step by step decreased the distance to the Top 2. With 2 votes left they jump onto 2nd place and with the last vote and the Israeli 12 points win the whole thing. It'd be SO AMAZING if it actually happened. That's what i call nerve-wrecking results show a la 2003. :wub:

 

1. Estonia (216)

2. Romania (207)

3. United Kingdom (176)

4. Sweden (153)

5. Azerbaijan (146)

6. Slovenia (124)

7. Germany (122)

8. Russia (117)

9. Greece (113)

10. Norway (107)

11. Turkey (97)

12. Armenia (92)

13. Hungary (86)

14. Italy (86)

15. Finland (82)

16. Bosnia Herzegovina (78)

17. France (76)

18. Austria (70)

19. Denmark (70)

20. Poland (68)

21. Moldova (55)

22. Ireland (46)

23. Israel (46)

24. Spain (39)

25. Switzerland (22)

 

Semi results

 

1. Azerbaijan (180)

2. Greece (122)

3. Norway (114)

4. Russia (113)

5. Finland (96)

6. Hungary (90)

7. Turkey (76)

8. Switzerland (58)

9. Poland (50)

10. Armenia (48)

11. Malta (44)

12. Georgia (44)

13. Serbia (43)

14. Portugal (38)

15. Croatia (34)

16. San Marino (29)

17. Lithuania (14)

18. Albania (14)

19. Iceland (11)

 

1. Sweden (157)

2. Estonia (146)

3. Israel (128)

4. Slovenia (117)

5. Austria (114)

6. Bosnia Herzegovina (111)

7. Romania (106)

8. Denmark (77)

9. Ireland (74)

10. Moldova (62)

11. Latvia (49)

12. Ukraine (48)

13. Belarus (41)

14. Bulgaria (22)

15. Netherlands (9)

16. Slovakia (8)

17. FYR Macedonia (6)

18. Belgium (1)

19. Cyprus (0)

 

HIDEOUS results in the bottom 5 of the Semi 2 :mellow:

Tbh that bottom five is all deserved. About the exciting voting, apparently this is deliberate, because it's rumoured that the EBU will dynamically create the voting order to make it most exciting. Not sure how I feel about that tbh...

Odds/Dispora

 

1. Estonia (223)

2. Azerbaijan (199)

3. Norway (176)

4. Bosnia Herzegovina (158)

5. Bulgaria (152)

6. Sweden (145)

7. Armenia (130)

8. Denmark (129)

9. Finland (112)

10. Germany (111)

11. Portugal (107)

12. Russia (105)

13. Cyprus (98)

14. Slovenia (94)

15. France (92)

16. Hungary (73)

17. Switzerland (65)

18. United Kingdom (63)

19. Serbia (51)

20. Italy (48)

21. Austria (45)

22. Romania (41)

23. Georgia (37)

24. Israel (28)

Tbh that bottom five is all deserved. About the exciting voting, apparently this is deliberate, because it's rumoured that the EBU will dynamically create the voting order to make it most exciting. Not sure how I feel about that tbh...

 

Really? So we won't know the voting order until after the votes have come in and the EBU have fiddled about to make it 'exciting'?

 

In one way I find that very offputting because if say the UK are leading until halfway I'd start to worry that something's going to come behind to knock us off and I'd give up hope. I'd rather they stuck to doing it randomly. That said, ever since the rules changed in 2004, most year's it's been painfully obvious who the winner is from about the halfway point, which is fairly boring.

I actually wouldn't want the order to be altered. It'd just not feel real, even if the whole thing is exciting. :(

1. France (251)

2. Estonia (248)

3. Slovenia (213)

4. Russia (165)

5. Spain (144)

6. Italy (140)

7. Armenia (132)

8. Azerbaijan (117)

9. Ireland (117)

10. Poland (116)

11. Sweden (112)

12. Malta (109)

13. Bosnia Herzegovina (108)

14. Latvia (73)

15. Denmark (73)

16. Israel (63)

17. Finland (58)

18. Germany (48)

19. Switzerland (48)

20. Georgia (47)

21. Hungary (34)

22. Romania (32)

23. Serbia (19)

24. Austria (17)

25. United Kingdom (10)

 

The UK's points came from Ireland :manson: France came in to contention after about half of the votes had happened. It was mainly Slovenia and Estonia throughout, but I :lol:'d at Belarus giving their 12 points to Spain!

 

SF1

 

1. Malta (168)

2. Russia (134)

3. Poland (128)

4. Azerbaijan (106)

5. Armenia (81)

6. Switzerland (75)

7. Hungary (75)

8. Georgia (73)

9. Serbia (71)

10. Finland (67)

11. Lithuania (54)

12. Norway (44)

13. Turkey (43)

14. Croatia (26)

15. Greece (23)

16. Iceland (21)

17. Albania (21)

18. Portugal (7)

19. San Marino (1)

 

SF2

 

1. Estonia (157)

2. Bosnia Herzegovina (141)

3. Austria (140)

4. Denmark (129)

5. Sweden (117)

6. Slovenia (115)

7. Latvia (79)

8. Romania (75)

9. Israel (75)

10. Ireland (72)

11. Moldova (60)

12. Ukraine (47)

13. Slovakia (44)

14. Netherlands (14)

15. FYR Macedonia (5)

16. Bulgaria (3)

17. Cyprus (3)

18. Belgium (0)

19. Belarus (0)

Malta winning the semi. LMAO.

Also :o at Austria coming 3rd in the semi-final, but second last in the final!

 

They were first in the running order, and I think Malta were 2nd?

 

Started it again, with the random city option ticked. Belgium's votes said 'calling from Waterloo' :wub: And the UK called from Rushden! :D

Edited April 10, 201114 yr by Klumzee

Mine is blatently right - and Netherlands are gonna win so SHUSH.

I've never understood the problem people had with making voting exciting rather than having a set order. If the victory margin is less than 24 points, it only makes sense to make it look like both of them are in it at the penultimate vote - otherwise what's the appeal of the voting supposed to be?

I agree with Nick Tyron.

 

One thing I was worried about was them simply saving all of the high points for the winner until the end, which would be very contrived, but if they are simply generating the voting order so that the 2-3 leaders are as close as possible to each other for as long as possible then I'm all for it. The simulator seems to have been able to do it fairly effectively, so I'm sure the EBU will have been able to find a way. The only potential issue is the satellite link-ups, but if they've got that sorted out then good for them.

I got some random results even with odds and diaspora turned on! Estonia came last in SF2, Portugal won SF1, while Macedonia came top 10! France and UK battled in the top 2 throughout the voting! I really hope that Estonia do qualify in the real thing, they are my adopted country for this year along with the UK of course :)

 

FINAL

 

1. France (271)

2. United Kingdom (222)

3. Bosnia Herzegovina (216)

4. Azerbaijan (181)

5. Sweden (154)

6. Russia (150)

7. Spain (141)

8. Armenia (128)

9. FYR Macedonia (120)

10. Denmark (115)

11. Norway (112)

12. Ireland (90)

13. Turkey (89)

14. Germany (78)

15. Portugal (58)

16. Slovakia (57)

17. Austria (53)

18. Slovenia (46)

19. Italy (45)

20. Cyprus (45)

21. Israel (40)

22. Malta (32)

23. Serbia (29)

24. Finland (12)

25. Poland (10)

 

 

SEMI 1

1. Portugal (138)

2. Norway (133)

3. Azerbaijan (121)

4. Russia (105)

5. Armenia (95)

6. Turkey (82)

7. Serbia (59)

8. Malta (58)

9. Finland (58)

10. Poland (52)

11. Georgia (47)

12. Hungary (44)

13. Switzerland (42)

14. Croatia (41)

15. Albania (40)

16. Greece (37)

17. Iceland (35)

18. Lithuania (20)

19. San Marino (11)

 

 

SEMI 2

1. Sweden (194)

2. Bosnia Herzegovina (172)

3. Denmark (129)

4. FYR Macedonia (117)

5. Ireland (107)

6. Slovakia (76)

7. Slovenia (74)

8. Cyprus (66)

9. Austria (58)

10. Israel (52)

11. Romania (50)

12. Bulgaria (42)

13. Moldova (34)

14. Latvia (30)

15. Ukraine (29)

16. Netherlands (16)

17. Belarus (16)

18. Belgium (9)

19. Estonia (5)