I wouldn't be surprised if Coldplay did get it really, but this new Leona Lewis song is climbing fast up iTunes - so I think that has a chance too as its much newer than Paradise (and better imo)

 

I highly doubt it'll hold up well enough to still even be top 10 in 2012, let alone a #1 contender.

Don't underestimate Taio - It's literally the only new release with the potential to sell well, so it might get number one with 35k or something.

Don't underestimate Taio - It's literally the only new release with the potential to sell well, so it might get number one with 35k or something.

 

I don't think Taio will do well enough for number one unless sales are massively low - he should have released Hangover feat Flo Rida instead of Troublemaker as Hangover is doing very well in some places in Europe

I can't see Troublemaker getting to #1, low sales or not.

I don't think Taio will do well enough for number one unless sales are massively low - he should have released Hangover feat Flo Rida instead of Troublemaker as Hangover is doing very well in some places in Europe

 

I thought that was the song he's releasing. :lol: I heard it on the radio a few times.

 

I also think T-Pain is out of the running. The song is not radio friendly, so it's not going to get airplay like Moves Like Jagger to keep it up the chart for ages.

Think: Coldplay - Paradise

 

Hope: Leona Lewis - Hurt

 

Outside thought: Beyonce - Love On Top (may benefit from gift-card effect...hopefully...)

Think: Coldplay - Paradise

 

Hope: Leona Lewis - Hurt

 

Outside thought: Beyonce - Love On Top (may benefit from gift-card effect...hopefully...)

 

If any song goes to #1 off the gift card effect it'll be "Moves Like Jagger" :P I can actually see it returning to the top 10...

If any song goes to #1 off the gift card effect it'll be "Moves Like Jagger" :P I can actually see it returning to the top 10...

 

More like We Found Love since that's much closer to #1. That and Moves Like Jagger will definitely be the biggest beneficiaries anyway. Of the current iTunes top 20 I expect 'Sexy And I Know It', 'Lego House' and maybe 'Earthquake' and 'Good Feeling' to get big boosts too, not so much the others. The gift card effect mainly affects songs that have already been big hits. Wishful thinking Paradise might get another boost from it too but I don't think it's been big enough to benefit.

 

Actually I wouldn't be that surprised if WFL returns to #1 again with the gift card boost now I think about it. It wouldn't be the first new number one of 2012 though.

Edited December 11, 201113 yr by Bré

I'm beginning to get less confident in Coldplay/Lloyd's chances of getting #1 in the new year, I have a bad feeling Military Wives are going to hold on for three or four weeks and the first new #1 will be a new release... :( Wishful thinking Swedish House Mafia could be in with a shot, released in what will be Military Wives' fifth week.

I still think Coldplay are in prime position to take it considering all who are above it will plummet next week, the Christmas effect and the fact its their debut week will be helping the Wives a lot

I'm beginning to get less confident in Coldplay/Lloyd's chances of getting #1 in the new year, I have a bad feeling Military Wives are going to hold on for three or four weeks and the first new #1 will be a new release... :( Wishful thinking Swedish House Mafia could be in with a shot, released in what will be Military Wives' fifth week.

 

I was thinking the same actually. I really do think they will get a new boost in the new year, especially as there isn't an obvious new release #1 for weeks in January IMO but don't know if they will gain enough momentum.

 

I think MW will definately get a second week but it wouldn't surprise me if they get a third. I guess its hard to judge at the moment because its the Xmas #1 hype, its in the news etc. I can see them losing the itunes #1 next week at some point but I reckon their physicals will hold them up to be honest. I guess we will know more at the end of next week.

I've got a horrible feeling Maroon 5 or Lana Del Rey (Video Games) might just go to #1 in the new year, well, that's wishful thinking. :teresa:

I think Military Wives will hold on or Little Mix was climb back for 1 week!

You can never underestimate the power of the public when they get behind a single and buy it in bucketloads.

 

If Military Wives goes to #1 this week selling 600k, it'll definitely sell over 100k next week, maybe even 200k. The following week with the general sales lull of early Jan, they might hold up reasonably well so even another 60k might be enough to spend three weeks at #1.

You can never underestimate the power of the public when they get behind a single and buy it in bucketloads.

 

If Military Wives goes to #1 this week selling 600k, it'll definitely sell over 100k next week, maybe even 200k. The following week with the general sales lull of early Jan, they might hold up reasonably well so even another 60k might be enough to spend three weeks at #1.

 

Yes, this is my exact thought process - I think its sales will tail off quickly but they'll need to tail off REALLY quickly for it to not get #1 for at least 3 weeks. Most likely nothing else is going to be selling more than 50k or so by then.

 

(It's more like the sales lull of mid-January, the first week of January is now always the highest sales week of the year thanks to gift cards :P)

Edited December 20, 201113 yr by Michael Bubré

Yes, this is my exact thought process - I think its sales will tail off quickly but they'll need to tail off REALLY quickly for it to not get #1 for at least 3 weeks. Most likely nothing else is going to be selling more than 50k or so by then.

 

(It's more like the sales lull of mid-January, the first week of January is now always the highest sales week of the year thanks to gift cards :P)

 

Yeah I agree although it wouldn't surprise me if something like Coldplay manage itunes #1 but may never be the official #1? What I find odd about January 2012 so far is there is literally nothing out. This time last year we knew of potential big hits from Bruno Mars, Adele, Kesha etc for the new year but the schedule looks dead, I can't think of anything in the first 3 weeks that could be #1 at all (unless I am missing something obvious). Seems odd the labels aren't taking more advantage of the quiet period TBH.

Again, my wishful thinking tells me Swedish House Mafia could challenge for #1 - it would fit the mould of 'big Jan/Feb dance hit', an event which was a yearly occurrence until this year.

 

Other than that, no, there doesn't seem to be anything released in January that will challenge for #1. Taio Cruz's new one could I suppose but I doubt it.

 

Very slow start to the year then, I do hope things pick up. I can see overall singles sales starting to decrease in 2012 and I doubt we'll see 10/11 songs selling 700k+ again (I know it's really far too early to say this but it's just my hunch).

Edited December 20, 201113 yr by Michael Bubré

Sales seem to be getting lower (at the higher end of the chart at least) in the US too over the past year, so this could happen in the UK too. It's certainly looking to head that say.

 

The Swedish House Mafia song is very good, except it's only got a few weeks until it's released, and I don't think it's being promoted much. I haven't heard it on the radio yet.

 

At the moment, I think Coldplay are most likely to be #1. Or maybe Flo Rida. Or possibly Lloyd if Heart FM starts playing it now.

At the end of the day, its a song. Reading through these posts its as though people are losing sleep over MW. Its a number one single, it doesnt matter. Children dying in Africa because they have nothing and then there are people worried that a charity song will the Christmas number one.

I don't know how soon into the new year it's out, but I could feasibly see that hideous Will.I.Am/J-Lo/Mick Jagger song being a #1.