China is also in the about-to-be-bursting phase of a massive property bubble, whole tower blocks empty but owned for investment. That's a disaster waiting to happen.

 

Having banking as your main earner also leaves you massively exposed to the self-interested tosspots investing the cash they generate. The history of banking is a history of greed and only a complete moron (like Thatcher) could believe for one second that people attracted to an industry that swims in cash don't get hard-ons at the thought of getting away with making themselves rich at the expense of the greater economy. They're doing it right now. Last year too look at all the fines. Still, even after all of the misery they have wreaked.

 

Banking is necessary and can provide a perfectly good regulated industry. Megacorporation gambling isn't required by society at all and that's the dangerous seductive part of investment banking. A reasonable rate of return ahead of inflation should be enough for anyone paid for by borrowers. The current perverse banking market is just the reverse, there are no signs it's changing for the forseeable future so a decade of misery for the frugal and a decade of support for the careless. That is sending the wrong message to everyone....

 

The countries doing well are those that export goods, and a variety of services, on the whole.

The events of the last few days have shown the reality of the increase in the number of self-employed. It has become apparent that a lot of the delivery drivers. supposedly working for City Link are, in fact, self-employed. They have to pay for their own van and, earlier this year, they had to pay for their own new uniforms when it was redesigned. These drivers will be at the back of the queue when the administrators start to pay the creditors (assuming there is no rescue package forthcoming). They will probably get precisely nothing. As they are self-employed, they will also not be able to claim money from the government scheme. In other words, the so-called boost in self-employment is simply a way for large employers to transfer the risk from themselves to the individuals working for them.

 

 

Precisely! Growth in the delivery sector with the growth in online retail is booming and yet this company was unable to become viable and make a profit. But that is ultimately what the coalition stands for (as can be seen by Vince Cable's relatively recent privatisation of Royal Mail), privatising the profit but at the same time nationalising or delegating the risk. We were told in the 1980s that the tax payer cannot and should not prop up failing nationalised companies', yet here we are in 2014 under a Conservative coalition where the notion of propping up a failing fully private company is being entertained - whilst at the same time our 'failing nationalised companies' have been replaced by foreign nationalised companies who provide an inefficient service that is not only more expensive but fails to provide workers with a sufficient living wage/working conditions and then is required to be supported by our Government. My irony-o-meter just exploded by the way.

Small change compared to rescuing LLoyds RBS & co and the law needs changing to stop firms hiring non-employees individually. One can understand companies bidding for a franchise but an employee is an employee unless the company is one of several companies the individual works for and they are free to turn down a job (like taxi drivers).

 

 

On a separate whinge, Politicians can't accept financial facts of life in public when exposed as useless, misguided and more expensive as it means they will risk losing forthcoming elections. They have to instead bang on about how marvellous they are despite evidence to the contrary. My own local authority has a very efficient way of dealing with anyone who dares to hint at anything other than toeing the party line. It's called "garden leave". In the same way that being hung drawn and quartered is "taking a break a-part from the stresses of life". What bugs me is that official local opposition politicians are so crap at bringing up the facts for the general public to find out about, when that's their job. Ditto local newspapers. At least employees have it in their contract that they must not under any circumstances divulge information under threat of legal action and job loss.

 

 

Small change compared to rescuing LLoyds RBS & co and the law needs changing to stop firms hiring non-employees individually. One can understand companies bidding for a franchise but an employee is an employee unless the company is one of several companies the individual works for and they are free to turn down a job (like taxi drivers).

On a separate whinge, Politicians can't accept financial facts of life in public when exposed as useless, misguided and more expensive as it means they will risk losing forthcoming elections. They have to instead bang on about how marvellous they are despite evidence to the contrary. My own local authority has a very efficient way of dealing with anyone who dares to hint at anything other than toeing the party line. It's called "garden leave". In the same way that being hung drawn and quartered is "taking a break a-part from the stresses of life". What bugs me is that official local opposition politicians are so crap at bringing up the facts for the general public to find out about, when that's their job. Ditto local newspapers. At least employees have it in their contract that they must not under any circumstances divulge information under threat of legal action and job loss.

Companies often need to hire contractors to cater for short-term peaks so a blanket ban would be impractical. However, arrangements like those at City Link are a different matter.

 

As for our local "newspaper", it is pretty poor at reporting council matters. Various local authority blunders only ever make the news when they become too big to ignore.

Companies often need to hire contractors to cater for short-term peaks so a blanket ban would be impractical. However, arrangements like those at City Link are a different matter.

 

As for our local "newspaper", it is pretty poor at reporting council matters. Various local authority blunders only ever make the news when they become too big to ignore.

 

very much so. more often than not just rewriting official blurbs. I could suggest a dozen or so pertinent questions they should be asking, if I was looking to retire early. Though I was fairly happy to see an actual spot-on bit of FOI gathering last week in relation to the council costs on objecting to the proposed far off windfarms. I was on holiday in Gran Canaria last week where everyone was not moaning about, or mentioning, or noticing the teeny tiny almost invisible windmill thingies on the far sea horizon, being as they were on a beach full of noisy holidaymakers with sunshine, wind, sand, shops, and very noisy children to distract them far more. As opposed to elderly well-off local residents with sea views clinging to every dubious claim they can muster backed up by voter-chasing local councillors.

Yes, I was interested in that piece on wind farms. It's very noticeable that the comments on Facebook attached to stories about the wind farm are generally broadly in favour. Anyway, we are drifting slightly :offtopic:

Inflation at 0.5% now and likely to go negative in the next month or two. Turning Japanese, I think we're turning Japanese, I really think so. Zombie banks and zombie corporations - oh dear.

 

But don't worry, George Osborne has it all under control.

On the plus side, petrol is nearly under £1 a litre. Great stuff, especially for those of us who can claim for mileage.

The oil price actually climbed today from $46 to $48. A little bit below what Alex Salmond had expected*. :D

 

 

* He based the plans for an independent Scotland on $113 per barrel. Oops!

Osborne is, naturally, trying to claim the credit for low inflation even though this month's fall is almost entirely due to oil prices.

 

At the moment, I don't think negative e inflation is a serious threat. It may well drop below zero briefly, but it is only a real problem if people expect it to stay below zero. Then, people start to put off spending in the expectation that they can get the same thing more cheaply if they wait. Of course, we've been used to negative inflation for some products (computers being an obvious example) for many years.

Deflation did happen didn't it in 2009? I seem to remember my student loan repayment went to 0% as it was tied to the RPI. Really unfair that they wouldn't let it go negative. Bunch of killjoys. : (

 

Not that my loan was that much as I was educated when you didn't need to run a crystal meth empire in Arizona in order to fund it.

Yes, the RPI went negative briefly (a couple months I think) but CPI always stayed above zero. Until around the 1960s, negative inflation was not unheard of. It is only in more recent decades that it has become a rarity.

Honestly, a bit of deflation wouldn't be all that bad in the short term.

Inflation due to go negative in March and April.

 

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/PublishingImages/inflationreport/cpimktfeb15.gif

 

#TurningJapanese

In this case though it'll mainly be down to the oil price collapse rather than anything hitting the fan with our economy. And to be honest deflation hasn't happened in so long I can't see it having the massive effects that it's had in the past - I think it'll be treated as more of a pleasant novelty rather than getting a lot of people putting off purchases, at least for all but the most expensive of things. And on that front, it might be nice for a bit of the heat to be taken out of the housing market for a bit.

Inflation was falling BEFORE the oil price dropped away, our trade deficit is at the largest value in well over 30 years and that isn't because of imports increasing - they have been falling too. The world economy is flatlining, I can't believe you cannot see that.

At what point did I say the world economy was going gangbusters? My point was entirely to do with deflation. Inflation was falling anyway, that doesn't mean deflation itself isn't down to the oil price collapse.

funny, i just been watching 'some mothers do av em' on youtube, and even that far back in one episode they were talking about an economic situation...

 

also there was an episode of 'are you being served' and it mentioned the same thing...

 

the truth is we always seem to be having them every now and then so obviouslly they never really do actually fix the problem...

 

and a friend of mines daughter who studied for economics told me that learning about an economic downturn was in the corriculam, its as if they just expect one to happen regardless...

hmmm, doesnt bother me too much now though...

just my thoughts...

Economic downturns happen every so often because a lot of the time you'll have things like bad weather or bad yields which affect things like commodities trading (so bad crops, bad oil yields, etc), which in turn affects population, budgeting, and scares confidence amongst investors (which is the main cause of downturns these days given how much of the economy is based on lending and investment).

 

It's not a problem that can be 'fixed' permanently for really obvious reasons - that doesn't mean governments shouldn't do anything when there is a downturn, because much as you aren't bothered by it, it doesn't mean downturns don't hurt people.