Which just about sums up the Tory attitude - "It doesn't matter how reckless or disastrous a policy proves to be in the medium term as long as it gets us elected."

 

Labour have been guilty of it too not just us

 

But there is a big difference this time, Carney, maybe the worlds most respected economist, he will have a financial discipline that others in the past haven't, Carney is no tory puppet

There isn't that many of them though, assuming Lib Dems get about 10% at next election there is about 5%? that are going begging

 

Labour bound to pick up a good few students etc but many lib dems are right wing so good % will switch to tories, not as many as switch to labour but enough to minimise a labour gain

Yet again, your ignorance knows no bounds. The Lib Dems got 23% of the vote at the last election, not 15. I still think the Lib Dems will do a lot better than current polls predict. If there is a chance of a Tory majority at the next election, many would-be Labour voters will probably hold their noses and vote Lib Dem if that might help prevent that nightmare.

Labour have been guilty of it too not just us

 

But there is a big difference this time, Carney, maybe the worlds most respected economist, he will have a financial discipline that others in the past haven't, Carney is no tory puppet

They never did anything as reckless as Osborne in an attempt to win votes.

Yet again, your ignorance knows no bounds. The Lib Dems got 23% of the vote at the last election, not 15. I still think the Lib Dems will do a lot better than current polls predict. If there is a chance of a Tory majority at the next election, many would-be Labour voters will probably hold their noses and vote Lib Dem if that might help prevent that nightmare.

 

I know ;)

 

I am talking about the ratings of the Lib Dems NOW, not 2010

 

In the polls they are consistently polling at 10-15%

They never did anything as reckless as Osborne in an attempt to win votes.

 

Surely it is entirely possible Osborne has called this one right and it will not turn to bust

 

If he has it is a stroke of genius, time will tell

Yet again, your ignorance knows no bounds. The Lib Dems got 23% of the vote at the last election, not 15. I still think the Lib Dems will do a lot better than current polls predict. If there is a chance of a Tory majority at the next election, many would-be Labour voters will probably hold their noses and vote Lib Dem if that might help prevent that nightmare.

In certain seats (like Hallam, boooo). The Independent's 2010 wet dream of a red and yellow wave keeping the Tories out entirely isn't inconceivable in 2015, but in the Labour/Tory marginals the Lib Dems will sink without trace.

 

I'd imagine their vote % will be far more representative of their seat % in two years than it was last time.

Well, that depends on what you'd define as right-wing. Economically, not very many at all. Socially...

Implying that we were propped up by social conservatives?

I think the 2015 election will be something like

 

Tory - 37%

Labour - 34%

Lib Dem - 12%

UKIP - 10%

Others - 7%

Surely it is entirely possible Osborne has called this one right and it will not turn to bust

 

If he has it is a stroke of genius, time will tell

But why should a housing boom now be any different from previous booms? Nobody has even attempted to explain that.

But why should a housing boom now be any different from previous booms? Nobody has even attempted to explain that.

 

Carney would put up interest rates in a heartbeat if he thought things were getting out of control

 

Previous BOE governers have been pretty much stooges of the ruling party but this guy is different

Exactly

 

As long as Crosby keeps on with the message about 'f***ing muslims' (his words not mine) and 'layabouts' (again his words not mine) then people will vote tory as that is what the Sun and Daily Mail have told people are what matters in the UK

 

Those people (anti-immigration poor people) are not going to vote for the Conservatives no matter what they say on immigration though. They're much more likely to go to UKIP purely because they're not controlled by a posh clique who seem alien to working-class people (plus, UKIP are becoming very Lib Dem-esque in that they radically change their message depending on what part of the country they're in -- I've actually seen UKIP posters in the north slamming the government scrapping the 50p tax rate, even though UKIP want even lower taxes for the rich).

 

With that said, I don't agree that the 29% Labour got in 2010 is necessarily the bare minimum that they could possibly get, since much of that 29% is constituted of the kind of people that Labour have been screwing over in recent years, by agreeing with the government attacks on them in an attempt to get the fantasy "centre-ground" voters. They seem to be rowing back on it a bit now, but I worry that it's too late in the day for people to believe them. Although virtually none of Labour's 2010 voters are going to vote Conservative, I do think it's possible many of them will stay at home... overall turnout could even drop below 50% next time imo.

There isn't that many of them though, assuming Lib Dems get about 10% at next election there is about 5%? that are going begging

 

Labour bound to pick up a good few students etc but many lib dems are right wing so good % will switch to tories, not as many as switch to labour but enough to minimise a labour gain

The Lib Dems got 23% at the last election. And in any case, 5% is about the difference between Labour's result in 2005 and their result in 2010.

Those people (anti-immigration poor people) are not going to vote for the Conservatives no matter what they say on immigration though. They're much more likely to go to UKIP purely because they're not controlled by a posh clique who seem alien to working-class people (plus, UKIP are becoming very Lib Dem-esque in that they radically change their message depending on what part of the country they're in -- I've actually seen UKIP posters in the north slamming the government scrapping the 50p tax rate, even though UKIP want even lower taxes for the rich).

 

With that said, I don't agree that the 29% Labour got in 2010 is necessarily the bare minimum that they could possibly get, since much of that 29% is constituted of the kind of people that Labour have been screwing over in recent years, by agreeing with the government attacks on them in an attempt to get the fantasy "centre-ground" voters. They seem to be rowing back on it a bit now, but I worry that it's too late in the day for people to believe them. Although virtually none of Labour's 2010 voters are going to vote Conservative, I do think it's possible many of them will stay at home... overall turnout could even drop below 50% next time imo.

 

I think UKIP are a busted flush, sure they will probably get about 10% in the next election but they are pretty much the BNP without the shaved heads and the thuggery, plus Farage being an ex very successful banker is hardly going to appeal to the 'banker bashers' who traditionally support labour

 

UKIP will pick up a % of tory dinosaurs (the racist and homophobic element who are still living in the 1970's) from the very far right and a few centrists who think Farage is a bit of an alright bloke

 

I would be surprised if they win a single seat in 2015

Implying that we were propped up by social conservatives?

Well, pretty much anybody we had on board could be described as propping us up given our result in 2010. In any case, I think it's indisputable that there are a substantial chunk of people in our core vote with some pretty socially conservative views. Just look at Gillian Duffy et al.

The Lib Dems got 23% at the last election. And in any case, 5% is about the difference between Labour's result in 2005 and their result in 2010.

 

A lot of floating voters who voted Lib Dem in 2010 will vote tory in 2015, not as many as will vote labour admittedly but I see labour gaining maybe 3% thanks to lib dems switching to Labour

I know ;)

 

I am talking about the ratings of the Lib Dems NOW, not 2010

 

In the polls they are consistently polling at 10-15%

Well, you are saying that Ed is 'talking to the already converted'. He has a lot of Lib Dem converts already banked. You can't then go on to just take them away in the same breath in your analysis of the next election - 34% would imply he'd lose a lot of those Lib Dem votes he already has, let alone the ones you're saying he could possibly still take from the Lib Dems.

Carney would put up interest rates in a heartbeat if he thought things were getting out of control

 

Previous BOE governers have been pretty much stooges of the ruling party but this guy is different

Thus immediately causing problems for people who were already over-stretching themselves with current low interest rates. Are you really too stupid to realise how utterly irresponsible this policy is?

Those people (anti-immigration poor people) are not going to vote for the Conservatives no matter what they say on immigration though. They're much more likely to go to UKIP purely because they're not controlled by a posh clique who seem alien to working-class people (plus, UKIP are becoming very Lib Dem-esque in that they radically change their message depending on what part of the country they're in -- I've actually seen UKIP posters in the north slamming the government scrapping the 50p tax rate, even though UKIP want even lower taxes for the rich).

Precisely. There aren't many people in Labour's core vote who are socially conservative who'd ever vote Tory. There are a surprising number out there who say they'd only ever vote Labour or UKIP.

Carney would put up interest rates in a heartbeat if he thought things were getting out of control

 

It is already out of control. People who earn over £30,000pa are priced out of the market and Help To Buy will only cause prices to go up further.

 

Carney is not going to raise interest rates above 0.5% before the next election whatever happens - he has a vested interest (no pun intended) in keeping it low so that these ridiculous 95% mortgages remain affordable. A jump up to 2% will double a lot of hardworking families' repayments on mortgages they've already taken against a spending budget which has been squeezed to breaking point by flat wages, a flat economy and rising inflation.

Edited October 5, 201311 yr by Doctor Blind

Although virtually none of Labour's 2010 voters are going to vote Conservative, I do think it's possible many of them will stay at home... overall turnout could even drop below 50% next time imo.

This I disagree with. We're talking about what is almost certainly going to be the biggest polar difference between two major parties on offer since the 80s, and you think turnout would be below 2001?!