Really interesting article from YouGov on this (very long and detailed though so you might get bored reading it unless you're a real political geek!):

 

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/10/21/why-no...dont-vote-tory/

 

Many people (myself included) sometimes still assume that Labour's and Conservatives' "dividing lines" are still based on wealth and class. But this data shows it's geography that's by far the biggest factor: in fact, shockingly imo, working-class southerners are on average more likely to vote Conservative (and less likely to vote Labour) than middle-class northerners are.

 

Thoughts on why this is? I've never seen specific stats to prove it, but I imagine the country is more geographically polarised even than it was in Thatcher's time.

Edited October 21, 201311 yr by Danny

My basic theory would be that the concept of working-class solidarity isn't really much of a thing in the South anymore, whereas in the North community is still a fairly strong concept (even if it is nowhere near as strong as it used to be). That's just me thinking aloud though, I haven't got anything solid to back that up.

That and the perception that the Tories are anti-Northern. It's a party that still looks and sounds Southern, be it Shire Tory or metropolitan. Not much for Northern voters to identify with, whereas when Labour doesn't sound Southern and metropolitan (which is admittedly the dominant representation for both parties) it does at least have some prominent Northern working-class representatives.

Really interesting article from YouGov on this (very long and detailed though so you might get bored reading it unless you're a real political geek!):

 

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/10/21/why-no...dont-vote-tory/

 

Many people (myself included) sometimes still assume that Labour's and Conservatives' "dividing lines" are still based on wealth and class. But this data shows it's geography that's by far the biggest factor: in fact, shockingly imo, working-class southerners are on average more likely to vote Conservative (and less likely to vote Labour) than middle-class northerners are.

 

Thoughts on why this is? I've never seen specific stats to prove it, but I imagine the country is more geographically polarised even than it was in Thatcher's time.

It's in the cities where the polarisation is most pronounced. In 1979 the Tories won seats in Liverpool, Manchester, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Leeds, Sheffield and Newcastle, some of them very comfortably. Now they are nowhere near winning a seat in any of those cities. In many of them they haven't even got a single councillor.

That and the perception that the Tories are anti-Northern. It's a party that still looks and sounds Southern, be it Shire Tory or metropolitan. Not much for Northern voters to identify with, whereas when Labour doesn't sound Southern and metropolitan (which is admittedly the dominant representation for both parties) it does at least have some prominent Northern working-class representatives.

 

William Hague and Eric Pickles are born and bred yorkshiremen, Esther McVey is from Liverpool

 

Thats 3 off the top of a semi drunk head

It's in the cities where the polarisation is most pronounced. In 1979 the Tories won seats in Liverpool, Manchester, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Leeds, Sheffield and Newcastle, some of them very comfortably. Now they are nowhere near winning a seat in any of those cities. In many of them they haven't even got a single councillor.

 

You're right that it's particularly pronounced in the cities, but it's definitely still true to some extent even outside of them. For example, my own seat ( Ellesmere Port and Neston ) was held by the Conservatives all through the 1980s, and certainly Labour activists round here really thought the Tories had a chance of taking it in 2010, but in the end they didn't even come close. Obviously there's still pockets of very rural, super-wealthy parts of the north in for example parts of Yorkshire and Cheshire where the Tories still win, but there really are huge numbers of suburban, moderately well-off constituencies in the north which are far less likely to vote for them than demographically-similar seats in the south.

William Hague and Eric Pickles are born and bred yorkshiremen, Esther McVey is from Liverpool

 

Thats 3 off the top of a semi drunk head

I'm well aware the Conservatives have Northern MPs. You can't really dispute that the Conservatives don't have an image of being a party of the North though.

 

Additionally, I doubt many people would really describe William Hague and Esther McVey as working-class. Eric Pickles is a toss-up.

Edited October 21, 201311 yr by Cassandra

I'm well aware the Conservatives have Northern MPs. You can't really dispute that the Conservatives don't have an image of being a party of the North though.

 

Additionally, I doubt many people would really describe William Hague and Esther McVey as working-class. Eric Pickles is a toss-up.

That's not how I spell tosser.

William Hague and Eric Pickles are born and bred yorkshiremen, Esther McVey is from Liverpool

 

Thats 3 off the top of a semi drunk head

None of them represent the area where they were brought up though. Hague is from Rotherham but represents the rather posher Richmond. McVey's constituency is in the Wirral, the posh bit of Merseyside. Pickles' constituency is in Essex.

I'm well aware the Conservatives have Northern MPs. You can't really dispute that the Conservatives don't have an image of being a party of the North though.

 

Additionally, I doubt many people would really describe William Hague and Esther McVey as working-class. Eric Pickles is a toss-up.

 

I don't know too much about McVey although when i remember her as a tv presenter she didn't seem the sharpest tool in the box and Hague went to a comprehensive so Hague is definitely not one of the upper middle class Eton types like Cameron/Osborne etc

None of them represent the area where they were brought up though. Hague is from Rotherham but represents the rather posher Richmond. McVey's constituency is in the Wirral, the posh bit of Merseyside. Pickles' constituency is in Essex.

 

That shows then that none of those 3 hail from traditional tory heartlands?

people dont always vote labour in the south cos they know its a wasted vote, they instead vote liberal cos they have a chance of beating conservatives and there's a south-west tradition of it which spills over to south central. I come from a staunch mining labour community background where Tory = posh, party for the rich, labour = standing up for the poor, and those values might have been watered down by yuppie or self-employed types in the 80's but it remains fairly strong a perception. Even when the parties themselves are all quoting the same "hard-working family" bollocks to try and grab the increasingly cynical voter who's seen all of them bugger up the economy after living in fool's paradise policies.

 

just a thought.

I don't know too much about McVey although when i remember her as a tv presenter she didn't seem the sharpest tool in the box and Hague went to a comprehensive so Hague is definitely not one of the upper middle class Eton types like Cameron/Osborne etc

'Didn't seem the sharpest tool in the box' = working-class? Charming. And just because Hague isn't an Eton type doesn't make him working class, for the same reason as Ed Miliband going to a comprehensive doesn't make him working class. It isn't a binary.

'Didn't seem the sharpest tool in the box' = working-class? Charming. And just because Hague isn't an Eton type doesn't make him working class, for the same reason as Ed Miliband going to a comprehensive doesn't make him working class. It isn't a binary.

 

Not at all, she just seemed to be the stereotypical blonde bimbo/eye candy on the TV AM sofa, she didn't strike me as a woman of great intelligence, nothing to do with class, look at the Ecclestone sisters, everything handed to them on a plate, best education going yet both come across as thick as pig shit

Then in that case why did you bring it up in a discussion over whether she was working class or not?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/01/a...kusaolp00000009

 

So why isn't this happening in the UK?

Polling in the Times shows 39% of northerners say they would NEVER (under any circumstances) even consider voting Tory (and, less surprisingly, 54% of Scots say they would never consider voting for them). By contrast, Labour's problems in the south are still significant but less - 30% of southerners say they'd never vote for them.