March 19, 201411 yr Armenia odds are ridiculous - i hope a song where only half of it is decent does not win! Denmark are starting to do good odds wise now too as well as belgium (wtf?) hoping those 2 will drop down before the contest begins!
March 19, 201411 yr Belgium has a real whiff of Sognu to it, except not as good a song (although admittedly the singer looks far more likely to deliver a competent vocal than Amaury) in the respect that the bookies are probably over-predicting it due to how much of a standout it will be on the night. I don't see people rushing to vote for it though, it's a bit old fashioned.
March 19, 201411 yr Belgium is just something that people are going to laugh at, so in a sense, it could qualify but it's far more likely a non-qualifier.
March 19, 201411 yr I could see Belgium being the annual horror qualifier that bombs in the final. And EVERYONE thought Haba Haba would qualify Robot :angry:
March 31, 201411 yr Author Here are the latest odds using the best odds available according to Oddschecker: (the arrows refer to the country's previous position in the odds) 01. 1/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Armenia.png Armenia 02. 13/2 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Sweden.png Sweden 03. 9/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Norway.png Norway 04. 14/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Denmark.png Denmark 05. 16/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan 06. 18/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Hungary.png Hungary 07. 18/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ukraine.png Ukraine 08. 22/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/United_Kingdom.png United Kingdom 09. 25/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belgium.png Belgium 10. 25/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Romania.png Romania 11. 28/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia 12. 50/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Italy.png Italy 13. 59/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Austria.png Austria 14. 66/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Spain.png Spain 15. 66/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Israel.png Israel Also at 66/1 are Greece, Ireland and Germany but I've just based the order on what Oddschecker have. Armenia are as low as 8/11 with several bookmakers which, looking back on previous odds threads and comments on here around a month before the contest, are even shorter odds than the likes of Alexander, Loreen and Emmelie so Aram MP3 is probably the biggest favourite ever at this stage! Even though the arrows suggest the UK is falling, it has actually climbed recently as it fell to around 11th a week or so ago before reclimbing to where they are now.
March 31, 201411 yr I like Not Alone but I'm struggling to see exactly what makes it a Euphoria/Fairytale type runaway favourite, how baffling... I did think it would do well though. it's probably something like 15th in my personal rankings.
March 31, 201411 yr Author Just for comparison, here are the odds from around a month before the contest in previous years: (I have just copied the top 15 from each set of odds) 2013 Here are the current top 15 countries based on the best odds available according to Oddschecker. The arrow refers to the position of the country in the odds rather than an actual change in the odds. 01. 6/4 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Denmark.png Denmark 02. 8/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Norway.png Norway 03. 12/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ukraine.png Ukraine 04. 16/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia 05. 16/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Sweden.png Sweden 06. 19/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Netherlands.png The Netherlands 07. 25/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Germany.png Germany 08. 25/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Georgia.png Georgia 09. 25/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Italy.png Italy 10. 33/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan 11. 40/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/San_Marino.png San Marino 12. 50/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/United_Kingdom.png United Kingdom 13. 66/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ireland.png Ireland 14. 66/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belarus.png Belarus 15. 75/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Greece.png Greece 2012 Latest odds from Sky Bet: Sweden 9/4 Italy 8/1 Russia 10/1 Serbia 11/1 Denmark 14/1 United Kingdom 14/1 Ireland 16/1 Spain 18/1 Germany 20/1 Norway 20/1 Iceland 22/1 Greece 25/1 Romania 28/1 Turkey 28/1 Cyprus 33/1 2011 Current odds - #1 - France 4/1 #2 - Estonia 13/2 #3 - United Kingdom 7/1 #4 - Hungary 8/1 #5 - Sweden 10/1 #6 - Bosnia & Herzegovina 10/1 #7 - Azerbaijan 12/1 #8 - Norway 12/1 #9 - Germany 12/1 #10 - Russia 20/1 #11 - Ireland 20/1 #12 - Denmark 20/1 #13 - Italy 33/1 #14 - Romania 40/1 #15 - Poland 40/1 2010 Top 10 odds on William Hill currently; Germany 5/2 Azerbaijan 5/2 Denmark 8/1 Israel 8/1 Armenia 14/1 Croatia 16/1 Norway 20/1 Sweden 22/1 Ireland 25/1 Greece 28/1 Weirdly long odds for everything below the top 4, so they seem to think it's a definite two horse race still between the two best songs by far Germany and Azerbaijan :P we'll see, out of everything in the top 10, I'm only absolutely CERTAIN that Azerbaijan and Croatia will actually definitely live up to the hype, or close to it. Everything else could go either way. 2009 PaddyPower Norway 6/4 Greece 9/2 Turkey 8/1 Montenegro 8/1 Azerbaijan 10/1 Sweden 12/1 Malta 14/1 United Kingdom 18/1 Estonia 25/1 Bosnia-Herzegovina 25/1 France 25/1 Spain 25/1 Russia 25/1 Finland 33/1 Iceland 33/1 2008 Latest from Paddy Power. France doing quite well now. :o Russia 7/2 Serbia 9/2 Ireland 5/1 Armenia 11/2 Ukraine 7/1 Sweden 9/1 Bulgaria 18/1 Greece 20/1 Spain 20/1 France 22/1 Bosnia-Herzegovina 25/1 Latvia 25/1 Turkey 25/1 Switzerland 25/1 Romania 25/1 2007 Latest from PaddyPower: Switzerland 5/1 Sweden 7/1 Serbia 8/1 Belarus 8/1 Ukraine 11/1 Bulgaria 11/1 Russia 12/1 Greece 14/1 Romania 16/1 Cyprus 16/1 Slovenia 20/1 United Kingdom 20/1 Malta 20/1 Latvia 25/1 Spain 25/1
March 31, 201411 yr They got it BADLY wrong in 2011 didn't they! I still can't believe how well Armenia is doing in these odds when I'd say it's the most open contest in years.
March 31, 201411 yr Interesting factoid. Most of those Armenia bets are actually from Armenians. So that'll be what's skewing it in their favour.
March 31, 201411 yr Even if Armenia do win, it certainly won't be landsliding to victory, and it won't be much of a hit anywhere as most winners tend to be these days. The 2011 odds make me laugh, none of that predicted top 4 even finished top 10 oops! DJ Bobo vs The Ark in 2007? Whoops. Serbia vs. Ukraine vs. Russia was always a fairly clear cut outcome in my mind.
March 31, 201411 yr #1 - France 4/1 #2 - Estonia 13/2 #3 - United Kingdom 7/1 #4 - Hungary 8/1 lmao 2011 stahhhp
March 31, 201411 yr Interesting factoid. Most of those Armenia bets are actually from Armenians. So that'll be what's skewing it in their favour. Source?
April 6, 201411 yr Author Following Eurovision In Concert last night, Armenia's odds are drifting for what I believe is the first time and are now back out to 5/4 at Sky Bet. Sweden and Norway's odds are shortening across several bookmakers while odds for Denmark and the United Kingdom are also shortening some places but not as many places as Sweden and Norway. The rest of the countries haven't seen much change, the 4 countries I've just mentioned (Sweden, Norway, Denmark and UK) seem to have benefited most from last night.
April 6, 201411 yr I just don't see it happening at all for Sanna, as much as I do really like it - surprised she's a clear 2nd favourite. Although I haven't heard most of the other songs and I get the impression no songs actually sound like winners.
April 7, 201411 yr I think Sanna hasn't a prayer, sadly. No doubt she'll pull off a slick performance but it all seems a little "corporate" and I think she may tank in the televote. Put a gun to my head and I think Ukraine will steal it this year.
April 7, 201411 yr Author Here are the latest odds using the best odds available according to Oddschecker: (the arrows refer to the country's previous position in the odds) 01. 6/4 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Armenia.png Armenia 02. 11/2 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Sweden.png Sweden 03. 12/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Denmark.png Denmark 04. 12/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Norway.png Norway 05. 18/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Hungary.png Hungary 06. 20/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/United_Kingdom.png United Kingdom 07. 20/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ukraine.png Ukraine 08. 20/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan 09. 25/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belgium.png Belgium 10. 25/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Romania.png Romania 11. 40/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia 12. 66/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Italy.png Italy 13. 66/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Greece.png Greece 14. 66/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Israel.png Israel 15. 66/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ireland.png Ireland For countries with the same odds I've just based the order on what Oddschecker have. The odds are starting to change quite quickly now! I don't understand why Sweden's odds are shortening, it will struggle to even make the top 10 in my opinion and I do prefer the ballads from Azerbaijan and Armenia (if that's classed as a ballad). I think Spain is being very underrated, we know Ruth will have a fantastic live performance and I can see her matching Pastora's result with a good draw and in a year as open as this, it could finish higher.
April 7, 201411 yr Sweden will not miss the top 10. I'd be pretty surprised if it didn't make the top 5, but at the same time I don't think it really has a shot at winning.
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