The issue is that any Ukip gains above 12% come proportionally more from Labour than the Tories.

 

Ok, I wasn't really aware of that. I think UKIP will poll around 13-14% - but it will vary considerably of course, from near 0 in LDN to maybe 50+ in some UKIP friendly places such as Boston, "Great" Yarmouth etc.

 

I guess the only thing we can be fairly certain of is that it is very likely to be a hung parliament!

It's too late now to get rid of Ed. Too near to the election. It would look to the voters, like panicking, which is what it would be really. Ed will fight the GE then either be PM or resign as leader.

 

I think they would have until the end of the year to do it. It would be worth it even at the risk of a few weeks of negative headlines about panicking.

 

The only problem is who to go for. Ed's main problem (not being able to speak normally or come across as...a humanbeing) is shared by all the potential "contenders" with the exceptions of only Alan Johnson and Andy Burnham.

Are you taking into account split Tory/UKIP voting which may allow Labour to pick up quite a few seats?

 

I just don't agree with that. So many "working-class" Labour voters are sick of the party and will be tempted either to vote UKIP or not vote at all, which means the Tories could hold onto many of their marginals even if their vote falls.

Edited October 13, 201410 yr by Danny

I think they would have until the end of the year to do it. It would be worth it even at the risk of a few weeks of negative headlines about panicking.

 

The only problem is who to go for. Ed's main problem (not being able to speak normally or come across as...a humanbeing) is shared by all the potential "contenders" with the exceptions of only Alan Johnson and Andy Burnham.

 

I'm guessing that Luciana Berger would have no chance either? Probably one of the current Labour MPs that I'm most fond of at the moment.

OH MY LIFE at Luciana Berger being suggested as a leadership contender!

 

If there's a leadership election next year, the runners will be Chuka Umunna, Yvette Cooper, Andy Burnham, Rachel Reeves and Stella Creasy, plus possibly somebody from the hard left. Aside from those, Alan Johnson is the only under the bus candidate. We're too late in to have a leadership election now (it can only be done at a conference), so any replacement would have to be agreed upon and uncontested.

OH MY LIFE at Luciana Berger being suggested as a leadership contender!

 

If there's a leadership election next year, the runners will be Chuka Umunna, Yvette Cooper, Andy Burnham, Rachel Reeves and Stella Creasy, plus possibly somebody from the hard left. Aside from those, Alan Johnson is the only under the bus candidate. We're too late in to have a leadership election now (it can only be done at a conference), so any replacement would have to be agreed upon and uncontested.

 

LOL, if any of Chuka Umunna, Rachel Reeves or Stella Creasy are chosen, it will show that not a damn thing has been learnt about the fiasco of the last few years.

OH MY LIFE at Luciana Berger being suggested as a leadership contender!

 

Is that an OH MY LIFE of agreement or an OH MY LIFE of utter disbelief? My liking of Luciana Berger is somewhat selfish, given that she was able to help out my brother with some issues he was having in her constituency.

LOL, if any of Chuka Umunna, Rachel Reeves or Stella Creasy are chosen, it will show that not a damn thing has been learnt about the fiasco of the last few years.

What's wrong with Stella? I know you've got your political reasons for being against her, but she's worked absolute wonders in Walthamstow for reconnecting people to politics locally. She's one of the few people in Labour who's actually made community organisation work.

Is that an OH MY LIFE of agreement or an OH MY LIFE of utter disbelief? My liking of Luciana Berger is somewhat selfish, given that she was able to help out my brother with some issues he was having in her constituency.

Disbelief. Look her up on Guido for a litany.

Unfortunately Alan Johnson has ruled himself out so many times in the last few years, including in the last few days, that he would find it hard to explain why he had suddenly changed his mind. Unless, of course, he can claim an overwhelming clamour within the party for him to stand. The former postman who became a Cabinet minister has a far better story to tell than the toff whose future mother-in-law got him the only job outside politics he has ever had.

Alan Johnson spoke with heart and sense at the QT I watched him on over the summer (think it was July), I personally think he would have made a great leader.

 

Need more people like him in politics.

Unfortunately Alan Johnson has ruled himself out so many times in the last few years, including in the last few days, that he would find it hard to explain why he had suddenly changed his mind. Unless, of course, he can claim an overwhelming clamour within the party for him to stand. The former postman who became a Cabinet minister has a far better story to tell than the toff whose future mother-in-law got him the only job outside politics he has ever had.

 

Plus he can actually speak English. I'm not sure I'd like his policies, but I think he'd easily be worth another few percent on Labour's vote compared to Ed even with all other things being equal.

Alan Johnson spoke with heart and sense at the QT I watched him on over the summer (think it was July), I personally think he would have made a great leader.

 

Need more people like him in politics.

He was even one of Labour's better performers on QT when he was a minister and still had the constraint of having to toe the party line on everything. It's not just that he speaks English, he speaks human.

Surely it'd be a leadership election too soon for Stella Creasy? I think she's smart enough to bide her time and maybe set up a contest with Lisa Nandy some time in the next decade.

 

If Danny thinks Ed is bad, I'm pretty sure Rachel Reeves would be the end of us.

Rachel's playing a very, very clever game behind the scenes at the moment. MPs votes don't mean as much in a leadership contest post-Collins Review, but keep an eye out.

What question on earth would Rachel Reeves be the answer to?

Don't ask me, like hell am I backing her.

He was even one of Labour's better performers on QT when he was a minister and still had the constraint of having to toe the party line on everything. It's not just that he speaks English, he speaks human.

 

 

and these are the sort of people desperately needed in front-line politics - those that can speak human, seem human and take an interest in human.

 

What we don't need:

 

arrogance

gloss

mediaspeak

woolliness

flip-flopping

insincerity

arse-lickers

callousness

self-aggrandisement

 

Have I missed out anyone who's been in power..?

and these are the sort of people desperately needed in front-line politics - those that can speak human, seem human and take an interest in human.

 

What we don't need:

 

arrogance

Be fair, a person has to be fairly arrogant to think they are capable of playing a part in running the country. No democracy will ever have a government made up of shrinking violets.

I can see them picking up a lot of the Lib Dem seats. Suedehead's made the point before that the Lib Dems are holding up better in the Tory/Lib Dem seats, and that might be right, but even so the Lib Dems only need to fall by about 10% for a whole load to flip over to the Conservatives.

 

In the main Labour/Tory marginals, I think it'll be pretty much no change from last time except Labour might pick up a few in London. This is all on the assumption that they stick with Ed and stick with their current terrible policies, obviously (if they changed both those things then who knows since the Tories remain so unpopular).

 

Your beginning to sound like Dan Hodges now Danny :P!

 

Is that an OH MY LIFE of agreement or an OH MY LIFE of utter disbelief? My liking of Luciana Berger is somewhat selfish, given that she was able to help out my brother with some issues he was having in her constituency.

 

The fact she's an absolute stunner helps too ;)