Poll result released for Clegg's seat. Hope he's a goner. Will be worth staying up all night for.

 

Survation on behalf of Unite interviewed 1,011 residents of the Sheffield Hallam constituency from 22-26 January 2015.

 

Key findings were:

 

Voting intention (with change in brackets since the 2010 general election):

 

LAB 33% (+17), LD 23% (-30), CON 22% (-2), GREEN 12% (+10), UKIP 9% (+7)

 

Hmm, an opinion poll, commissioned by Unite, one of the Labour Party's biggest donors, discovers that Labour are the most popular party by an overwhelming majority? Yay, I get to post the clip!

 

 

(Although I do agree that it's likely that Nick Clegg will lose his seat, I just imagine it'll be a lot closer run on the night).

Hmm, an opinion poll, commissioned by Unite, one of the Labour Party's biggest donors, discovers that Labour are the most popular party by an overwhelming majority? Yay, I get to post the clip!

 

 

(Although I do agree that it's likely that Nick Clegg will lose his seat, I just imagine it'll be a lot closer run on the night).

Having actually done the fieldwork for the poll, there's very little within it that would actually make it suspicious. It prompted for party voting intention before the TTIP questions.

However, there very much are grounds to be suspicious of the Liberal Democrats' private polling, for similar reasons of question ordering.

a week is a long time in politics, someone once said.

 

Did the polls 2 months before the last election reflect the final vote well? I ask only because I don't know, as I don't really care about polls much...

I think the ones two months before were quite accurate in 2010, but that obviously doesn't necessarily mean they'll be just as accurate this time around.

The polls at this point before 2010 underestimated the Lib Dems a bit, but otherwise were fairly accurate.

a week is a long time in politics, someone once said.

 

Did the polls 2 months before the last election reflect the final vote well? I ask only because I don't know, as I don't really care about polls much...

Polling in individual seats rarely moves a lot this close to polling day. It's just that a small swing in a lot of seats will make a big difference nationally.

 

Having actually done the fieldwork for the poll, there's very little within it that would actually make it suspicious. It prompted for party voting intention before the TTIP questions.

Did you?!

 

In Hallam we didn't take the Survation one quite as seriously as Ashcroft's, which when he finally got the numbers right read:

 

LAB 30%

LIB 27

CON 19

UKIP 13

GREEN 10

 

Either way, it's going to come down to 1) how much Clegg will be able to encourage Tories to vote tactically (from what we've seen, that'll be mixed), 2) how much talking to students will enable us to squeeze the Greens and 3) how many students will actually be registered to vote. The national polling has minimal effect here.

Did you?!

Yep - hence the related messages (though some stuff went down so I couldn't get as much as I liked!)

Either way, it's going to come down to 1) how much Clegg will be able to encourage Tories to vote tactically (from what we've seen, that'll be mixed), 2) how much talking to students will enable us to squeeze the Greens and 3) how many students will actually be registered to vote. The national polling has minimal effect here.

Also, from anecdotal fieldwork, you might need to let a few people know that Labour's the challenger these days - a fair few still think Labour don't stand a chance in Hallam because of historical trends.

Also, from anecdotal fieldwork, you might need to let a few people know that Labour's the challenger these days - a fair few still think Labour don't stand a chance in Hallam because of historical trends.

 

Time to copy the Lib Dems themselves and whip out some bar-chart leaflets...

Edited March 12, 201510 yr by Danny

:D

I've just had a thought. If Clegg loses his seat and the Lib Dems needed to negotiate with another party about a possible coalition, would he lead those talks? He'd still be party leader until he resigned. Maybe someone else like Vince may lead the discussions.

I don't have the Lib Dem rulebook to hand, but I sense someone who isn't an MP couldn't be party leader. Tim Farron would probably take over ex officio as President of the Lib Dems.

Time to copy the Lib Dems themselves and whip out some bar-chart leaflets...

Most of the Lib Dem bar-charts have been based on the previous election result and are, therefore, perfectly legitimate. The more dodgy ones are the ones that add up the most recent council elections in the constituency. They are still factually correct, but of doubtful relevance.

I don't have the Lib Dem rulebook to hand, but I sense someone who isn't an MP couldn't be party leader. Tim Farron would probably take over ex officio as President of the Lib Dems.

Tim Farron isn't president any more. The current incumbent is not an MP and, as far as I know, isn't standing. The deputy leader is Malcolm Bruce who is retiring at the election.

Tim Farron isn't president any more. The current incumbent is not an MP and, as far as I know, isn't standing. The deputy leader is Malcolm Bruce who is retiring at the election.

Oh, I'd forgot they'd put Sal in. It probably goes to the most senior Lib Dem remaining then, which won't necessarily be Cable as Danny Alexander's been given the economic portfolio for the election (though he's definitely losing so that's a non-starter).

 

Cable, Farron and Laws maybe?

Clegg will still be DPM until a new government is formed (unless he formally resigns). He could still take some part in discussions. My gut feeling is that he will hold his seat anyway. Vince Cable is bound to play a major part in the discussions as well.

 

Of course, the day after polling day is the 70th anniversary of VE Day. All three leaders are due to attend a commemoration. That will be fun for them.

 

 

I think he may just scrape in too, though it may be moot he'll resign before long anyway as leader as he's not an asset to the party's long-term chances, unless he gets invited into government again.

 

There's been murmurings that the new system of registering to vote has disadvantaged a proportion of lethargic students who haven't bothered registering now mummy and daddy don't do it on their behalf. Not sure how true that is, but bound to be some....

Clegg will still be DPM until a new government is formed (unless he formally resigns). He could still take some part in discussions. My gut feeling is that he will hold his seat anyway. Vince Cable is bound to play a major part in the discussions as well.

 

Of course, the day after polling day is the 70th anniversary of VE Day. All three leaders are due to attend a commemoration. That will be fun for them.

 

 

Wonder what time that is as both Cameron and Miliband may be visiting The Queen if Labour win outright!

Wonder what time that is as both Cameron and Miliband may be visiting The Queen if Labour win outright!

I think that is highly unlikely. It has already been announced that the Queen will be in Windsor Castle at the time. They have assumed that nobody will be anticipating a visit to Buck House on the Friday.