May 26, 201411 yr An interesting set of results in terms of the next general election. Labour did lacklustre but not as disastrous as I thought they might. The Tories also did mediocre; even if they came close to Labour, 23% is still not a very good result for any governing party with the exception of Labour in 2009 (which was probably dragged down by the expenses scandal) and doesn't seem to indicate there's any "feelgood factor" from the supposed economic recovery. Labour are still in with a chance (whereas a distant 3rd place would've legit killed off their chances I think), but they're going to need to make changes, starting with the main faces of their campaign, as I said in another thread. And - dead horse time - I'm assuming even the first-class blinkered morons like Caroline Flint and Ed Balls will have realised that the deficit is quite clearly not one iota of a factor holding Labour back; the big winners of these elections stand for the exact opposite of "credibility". I expect UKIP to hold onto about half of their vote from last night in 2015, and win up to 10 MPs, since Farage has said they will be focussing all their resources on a small group of target seats.
May 26, 201411 yr The Greens got edged out of a seat in Dublin by about 1,000 transfers. :( Gotta love STV. Sinn Féin being elected en masse to most county and city LEAs is terrifying though.
May 26, 201411 yr Whereas it is excellent that the BNP have been wiped out, three gueses where all those BNP votes went instead! If you assume that most of the lost BNP votes went to UKIP - not an unreasonable assumption - then that accounts for around 40% of the increase in the UKIP vote.
May 26, 201411 yr The Greens got edged out of a seat in Dublin by about 1,000 transfers. :( Gotta love STV. Sinn Féin being elected en masse to most county and city LEAs is terrifying though. It's often been assumed by advocates of STV - including myself - that STV encourages parties to put up a more diverse range of candidates. Do you think that happens in Ireland?
May 26, 201411 yr No blame? think we've been over this ground many times. Lib Dems didn't create the Recession and the reasons for it, they were merely the first to give warning on it (along with Newsnight and the BBC a few years earlier). The warnings were all there and they were all ignored by the party in power at that time. No brakes were put on the housing market, no checks were put on lying bankers and self-certifying. These were not big secrets and shocks it was blatantly obvious to me and many commentators what was coming years before it happened and the longer it went on the worse it was going to be.... I seem to recall some arrogant politician announcing an end to boom and bust. What we actually got was BOOM! then BUUUUUUUST! Apparently, though, the Libdems are pure evil for trying to ASSIST in sorting out the financial aftermath (overall policies of cutbacks pretty much identical in all parties election strategy give or take a year or two in pacing). So, no, they weren't just waiting for the moment they could get into power and hammer all those bast*rd students and the poor, it's the cards they were dealt. Labour may yet need to do a deal to keep out the Tories, so that should make for an interesting chat after the next election (presumably minus Nicky-boy)
May 26, 201411 yr Yay at BNP being completely wiped out. Shockingly poor for the Lib Dems, even lower than I anticipated. At one point I thought they might end with 0 seats! One is very bad still. Calls for Clegg to go but he won't imo until after next May. I sincerely hope he loses his Sheffield Hallam seat but actually think he'll just hold on as he has a good majority. Anyway he'll have a god job lined up in Brussels whatever happens. Edited May 26, 201411 yr by Common Sense
May 26, 201411 yr One is very bad still. Calls for Clegg to go but he won't imo until after next May. How perceptive of you to echo the views of just about every political commentator. Clegg has two main things in his favour - the huge risk involved in changing leader less than a year before the election and the fact that Lembit Opik has called for him to go.
May 26, 201411 yr One is very bad still. Calls for Clegg to go but he won't imo until after next May. I sincerely hope he loses his Sheffield Hallam seat but actually think he'll just hold on as he has a good majority. Anyway he'll have a god job lined up in Brussels whatever happens. The chances of him losing his seat, always slim, have been made even more remote by the fact that the Lib Dems easily "won" his seat in the local elections on Thursday.
May 26, 201411 yr I expect UKIP to hold onto about half of their vote from last night in 2015, and win up to 10 MPs, since Farage has said they will be focussing all their resources on a small group of target seats. Can't see them getting more than 3 at the most myself. If Farage stands in Kent he'll probably be elected but he'll probably be the only one. If I were him I'd stand in Clegg's seat and take a real fight to him.
May 26, 201411 yr The chances of him losing his seat, always slim, have been made even more remote by the fact that the Lib Dems easily "won" his seat in the local elections on Thursday. As I said, I think he'll hold on with a much reduced majority.
May 26, 201411 yr I read somewhere this weekend that someone, Ashcroft maybe, has drawn up a list of constituencies that UKIP should focus on next May, as being potentially winnable. One was my birth one of Barnsley Central but can't see them overturning an 11,000 Labour majority there.
May 26, 201411 yr Farage standing in Hallam would be hilarious. It's full of socially liberal Tories who defected to the Lib Dems in '97 (and will probably stay because the Tories have apparently been ordered on pain of death not to campaign there) and students. I can't think of many places he'd bomb in more. think we've been over this ground many times. Lib Dems didn't create the Recession and the reasons for it, they were merely the first to give warning on it (along with Newsnight and the BBC a few years earlier). The warnings were all there and they were all ignored by the party in power at that time. No brakes were put on the housing market, no checks were put on lying bankers and self-certifying. These were not big secrets and shocks it was blatantly obvious to me and many commentators what was coming years before it happened and the longer it went on the worse it was going to be.... I seem to recall some arrogant politician announcing an end to boom and bust. What we actually got was BOOM! then BUUUUUUUST! Apparently, though, the Libdems are pure evil for trying to ASSIST in sorting out the financial aftermath (overall policies of cutbacks pretty much identical in all parties election strategy give or take a year or two in pacing). So, no, they weren't just waiting for the moment they could get into power and hammer all those bast*rd students and the poor, it's the cards they were dealt. Labour may yet need to do a deal to keep out the Tories, so that should make for an interesting chat after the next election (presumably minus Nicky-boy) Coalition doesn't mean voting through almost everything the senior partner proposes. That's exactly why they're so far up the shitter. Aside from the morally questionable nature of voting through a whole host of things you're supposed to despise, the sheer electoral suicide of it all has been unbelievable. I read somewhere this weekend that someone, Ashcroft maybe, has drawn up a list of constituencies that UKIP should focus on next May, as being potentially winnable. One was my birth one of Barnsley Central but can't see them overturning an 11,000 Labour majority there. They didn't win a single seat on Barnsley council. They did get three in Sheffield which border it and form Penistone and Stocksbridge along with three Barnsley wards, but he surely has far easier targets. And he's already said he wants to have a constituency by the sea.
May 26, 201411 yr :D They didn't win a single seat on Barnsley council. They did get three in Sheffield which border it and form Penistone and Stocksbridge along with three Barnsley wards, but he surely has far easier targets. And he's already said he wants to have a constituency by the sea. Oh I know Farage wouldn't stand there. It's been one of the safest Labour seats for many many years.
May 26, 201411 yr The chances of him losing his seat, always slim, have been made even more remote by the fact that the Lib Dems easily "won" his seat in the local elections on Thursday. The Lib Dems came 3rd in that seat in the Euros though :P
May 26, 201411 yr The Lib Dems came 3rd in that seat in the Euros though :P How do you know? They were counted by local authority, not parliamentary constituency. In any case, it is clear that some people voted differently in the two elections. The Lib Dems gained council seats in Sutton to strengthen their hold on the council but came third in the Euros.
May 26, 201411 yr And the Euros have never shown any sign of being accurate predictors of subsequent general elections.
May 26, 201411 yr How do you know? They were counted by local authority, not parliamentary constituency. In any case, it is clear that some people voted differently in the two elections. The Lib Dems gained council seats in Sutton to strengthen their hold on the council but came third in the Euros. I think they do release a breakdown of the exact results going by council wards, which some political experts compile to find out how they relate to parliamentary constituencies. That said, I don't know for sure in the case of Sheffield Hallam, I'm going off this from Labourlist: 23.28: Lib Dems come fifth in Sheffield, with Labour first, as predicted. Lib Dems have come THIRD in Nick Clegg’s seat of Sheffield Hallam, behind Labour and UKIP. That European strategy went well for them then. – CP http://labourlist.org/2014/05/european-and...-liveblog-2014/
May 26, 201411 yr Author Northern Ireland have finally finished the 1st round of counting. Sinn Fein topped the poll and beaten the quota. DUP 2nd and very likely to get a seat, with UUP and SDLP well behind on about the same amount of votes. The Conservatives finished bottom and will have their 2nd preferences redistributed. TUV polled 75k, a surprisingly high number.
May 26, 201411 yr What confuses me is Sheffield is full of students who supported Lib Dems. But why would they continue to support Clegg when he broke his tuition fee promise? It's rather odd. I would love to see Nick Clegg lose his seat in the next general election, but it's unlikely. Watching his interview with BBC News today, he looked like a broken man. I'm not sure where Lib Dems can from here until the next election. They need to do something major to regain support, which I can't see happening in a year.
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