There's a bit of a difference between appealing to non-Labour voters and people who have actively stood against the Labour Party signing up! Not that I think it makes much of a difference either way, it's just utterly annoying that there are people voting on the basis of THAT.

 

But I think your argument doesn't quite hold anyway - there are plenty of people who a centrist message would appeal to but who wouldn't be massively enthused by it to the degree that they sign up specifically (which is why Progress et al tended to advocate open primaries of the type the Tories had, though that model is hideously expensive - I'm quite surprised anyone thought registered supporters would be a gamechanger for moderate candidates, particularly given the message generally appeals to the sorts of people who'd be the last to pay attention to a leadership election). Better a message that 13 million would think is a 7/10 rather than one that 5 million think a 10/10 but everyone else considers a 0.

 

Say all you want about "credibility", but no opposition party has EVER won without atleast some enthusiasm. That the "centrist" message has completely failed to create any in this contest is damning.

 

For all the Blairites might be gnashing their teeth at the paper tiger of "Trotskyists", the fact of the matter is Corbyn's argument is the only one which has chimed any kind of chord with any of the non-politically-obsessed public.

I'm not so convinced it's his policies that's winning adoring fans so much as his style of plain speaking and answering questions directly, and appearing to stick up for the underdog. People in England are just not used to it in a politician, give or take the odd Vince Cable, and it's a bit refreshing.

 

The content of the policies is another thing entirely, unless he's going to be like all the rest and make empty promises he won't deliver on, and blame someone else as an excuse. If he's deadly serious about all his announcements shouldn't be too hard to tear some of them down as pie in the sky so he won't get the chance to put them into practice, assuming he's leader in a few weeks.

Cameron had enthusiasm in 2010?

 

(yes I know it's hardly the most enthusing model but at this stage I'd gladly take a near-miss minority government/coalition in 2020)

I'm not so convinced it's his policies that's winning adoring fans so much as his style of plain speaking and answering questions directly, and appearing to stick up for the underdog. People in England are just not used to it in a politician, give or take the odd Vince Cable, and it's a bit refreshing.

 

The content of the policies is another thing entirely, unless he's going to be like all the rest and make empty promises he won't deliver on, and blame someone else as an excuse. If he's deadly serious about all his announcements shouldn't be too hard to tear some of them down as pie in the sky so he won't get the chance to put them into practice, assuming he's leader in a few weeks.

 

I think there's some truth in that - one of my best friends is not "left-wing" at all, or even THAT political (she almost voted Tory this year before deciding Labour at the last minute), and she's signed up to vote for Corbyn just because generally she thinks he's a breath of fresh air and would speak up for the young more than most politicians, rather than because she's super-ideological about his specific policies.

 

Incidentally, that's also why I think he could do much better with the public than the commentariat think - people are so desperate for some kind of hope that, basically whenever any politician comes along and says "things are going to change drastically", people allow themselves to believe that whatever their own personal hopes are will come about through that one politician promising change. The SNP being the best example of that.

Also, I put £50 on Clive Lewis to be Labour leader at the 2020 election earlier (on the assumption Jezza steps down before then). He's left-wing, but crucially is younger, more telegenic and once served in the Army Reserves so would be impossible to paint as a "traitor to Britain".

At least one bookie is paying out already on a Corbyn win. Bit premature I think as I have a sneaky feeling that he may just lose out to Burnham.

At least one bookie is paying out already on a Corbyn win. Bit premature I think as I have a sneaky feeling that he may just lose out to Burnham.

Call me a cynic, but they may have decided that the publicity they got by paying out is worth more than the cost.

Also, I put £50 on Clive Lewis to be Labour leader at the 2020 election earlier (on the assumption Jezza steps down before then). He's left-wing, but crucially is younger, more telegenic and once served in the Army Reserves so would be impossible to paint as a "traitor to Britain".

Clever. Unfortunately, he's loathed by plenty (even on the party's left), so he'd have a difficult time getting the nominations together. I think Lisa Nandy would be the smarter bet - left-wing, young, telegenic, but also a big advocate of devolution (even writing a pamphlet on it with Liz Kendall) - and as such, does at least have a common thread she could use to reconnect the wings of the party. She could probably get 35 MPs to back her without too much trouble.

Corbyn's got so much support, especially among the young and disillusioned. I see why, as he is about as anti-politician as you would get. He represents hope and society change, basically I think he says things that people want to hear. But I don't believe that a lot of these things are practical in the world we live in. I agree with popchartfreak in that it's refreshing to see, and that's obviously a large part of his appeal. Only problem is lots of his policies are ridiculous and we would go from being a global superpower, to feeding scraps from other countries.

I think President Trump meeting PM Corbyn would be great.

Thank god neither's going to happen.

Trump is pushing Hillary close in the latest polls though :P

Trump is pushing Hillary close in the latest polls though :P

 

Opinion polls for primaries mean buggar all until the first votes are cast. Hell, Hermain Cain, who had never held any political position and once quoted Pokemon in a campaign speech, was at one point the favourite for the Republicans in 2012. Trump will drop out very soon, now that he's generated so much free publicity for his various products and services, and I wouldn't be to certain about Hillary getting the nod either, depending on what the email releases reveal.

There's so much venom and vitriol around this contest and with the seemingly inevitable legal challenge to the result I can't see any good result from this (my hunch for the last week has been Cooper squeaking it on 2nd and 3rd preferences but that would probably bring about the most disharmony).

Trump is pushing Hillary close in the latest polls though :P

Which just goes to show how little polls the summer before mean! I mean, even if he got the nomination, all the factors that have held Republicans back to angry white men are still there...

There's so much venom and vitriol around this contest and with the seemingly inevitable legal challenge to the result I can't see any good result from this (my hunch for the last week has been Cooper squeaking it on 2nd and 3rd preferences but that would probably bring about the most disharmony).

There would only be a legal challenge if the result was close. Corbyn's probably still winning in the first round.

It's looking good for Corbyn then. The question is now this - if Jeremy Corbyn does, as is likely, win the leadership contest, will there be a split in the Labour Party? If so, how big will it be and what faction of the party will break away? And in the event that one of the other 3 gets it instead, could the same happen?

 

Everyone, speculate!

It's looking good for Corbyn then. The question is now this - if Jeremy Corbyn does, as is likely, win the leadership contest, will there be a split in the Labour Party? If so, how big will it be and what faction of the party will break away? And in the event that one of the other 3 gets it instead, could the same happen?

 

Everyone, speculate!

 

I don't think there will be a split. More just, lots of negative stories to the press, leaks, and probably a real life House of Cards scenario behind closed doors.

There won't be a split.

 

If Labour's moderates are stupid they'll endlessly agitate for him to step down/be replaced. If Labour's moderates are slightly more intelligent, but still fairly stupid, they'll join his Shadow Cabinet and do the loyalty thing while playing the waiting game. If Labour's moderates are clever, they'll stay on the backbenches, spend the next two years focusing on holding the Conservatives to account and taking advantage of gaps in official policy to suggest reasonable alternatives, while remaining diplomatically respectful towards Corbyn's mandate, promising to be entirely loyal to the manifesto we fight the 2020 election on, and letting nature take its course on Corbyn's approval ratings before the council election losses become too much to bear and he loses an annual leadership election.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the careerists like Chuka and Tristram Hunt jumped ship to the Tories if they were offered cushy Cabinet jobs, but otherwise yes I agree there won't be a split.