I fully expect UKIP to do very well in the 2016 Council Elections.

 

Brian

Why?

It'll be interesting for UKIP in the sense that 2013 was their breakthrough year so this is the last year they could be expected to make decent gains without becoming any more popular nationally.

There's going to be a by-election coming up in the Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough constituency following the death of the sitting MP, Labour's Harry Harpham. I'm guessing it'll be another solid by-election win for Labour, given that Labour won more that 50% of the votes in May with a majority of more than 13,000.

The timing is potentially slightly awkward. There are already local elections and the PCC election in May, and some returning officers prefer not to have more than two elections at the same time. If they wait until the potential date of the EU referendum (23 June is the current favourite), that would break the convention that a seat should not be vacant for more than three months. Therefore, they may choose to go for a quick by-election in March or April.

Will the Conservatives be including ALL their receipts for hotel accommodation in this by-election ?

I doubt they'll bother with anything more than a paper candidate!

Can you make up your mind if Corbyn is popular or not? You're saying his -41 approval ratings are because people are just responding to the media attacking him, but at the same time insisting he's popular enough for a 1997 landslide. The two cannot be true at the same time.

 

£500 bet?

 

Just like the American media ignored Bernie's popularity to their peril.

 

We are heading for a new opposite Thatcher Reagen politics.

 

The right wing media's attacks on him will become more and more impotent the strongee his electoral position looks thanks yo by election and council wins till they have no choice but to folloq public opinion instead of trying to sway it.

 

Don't hold your breath.

I'll be going over to campaign with old friends in Hillsborough. Not overly familiar with the seat but I'll be surprised if UKIP do better than in Oldham West.

For a little bit of Labour Party Kremlinology, Huw Irranca-Davies - who's the MP for Ogmore stepping down to run for the Welsh Assembly/First Minister - has been succeeded as Labour's candidate for the by-election by another Cooperite, although one who presumably wouldn't do as Huw did and nominate Corbyn.

For a little bit of Labour Party Kremlinology, Huw Irranca-Davies - who's the MP for Ogmore stepping down to run for the Welsh Assembly/First Minister - has been succeeded as Labour's candidate for the by-election by another Cooperite, although one who presumably wouldn't do as Huw did and nominate Corbyn.

Irranca-Davies formally resigned his Commons seat last week. The by-election will be on 5 May. I Labour lose it, it will be a massive surprise. The Tories came a very distant second last time, just ahead of UKIP. The Lib Dems will probably not be looking to do anything more ambitious than hold their deposit.

Labour will SMASH it with the grass roots movement, mark my words.

 

Quassandra should go down to watch it to see it in action first hand!

 

Lib Dems will lose their deposit and Tories will be pushed down into historic lows.

 

You beard it here first.

Well given that both constituencies are currently held by Labour with over 50% of the vote, it's hardly unlikely they're going to suddenly lose 30%+ of their vote in a by-election.

 

If anyone tries to use these two by-elections as a demonstration of the strengths of Corbyn, it will falter. Now if there was a by-election in a constituency where Labour could realistically lose their seat, like Halifax for example, and they held the seat, then that would be a different matter altogether.

Labour will SMASH it with the grass roots movement, mark my words.

 

Quassandra should go down to watch it to see it in action first hand!

Ohohoho, you have no idea the things I've seen.

Labour have, as expected, won the Sheffield Brightside by-election very comfortably. UKIP came second with the Lib Dems third. The Lib Dems actually managed to hold their deposit!

I have it on good authority that the new Ms. Brightside will be a fantastic MP. Really pleased to see vote share going up.

The Tooting by-election (following Sadiq Khan's election as London mayor) will be held on June 16, one week before the referendum. Khan won by a little under 3,000 with the Tories second. The Greens, Lib Dems and UKIP all lost their deposit. The UKIP candidate had the distinctly un-British name of Przemek Skwirczynski.

This'll be an interesting by-election in that it'll be the first one of this parliament where another party actually as a fighting chance of winning the seat, a 3,000/6% swing isn't entirely unfeasible. Labour will still more than likely hold on to it, especially if the "Khan lift" holds on to next month.

It's mainly labour vs Tories which will help Labour I think. Always remember Tooting was the seat Khan won in 2010 which signified that they couldn't win a majority and labour had held up better than expected!