May 10, 20169 yr So here are the 8 eliminated countries and how they ranked in the odds : 17 Iceland 30 Estonia 32 Finland 35 Bosnia 36 Greece 37 Montenegro 39 Moldova 40 San Marino So basically only Iceland is a surprise.
May 11, 20169 yr Author Someone on Sofabet has found potential evidence of a "bot" driving down odds for Russia, with the equivalent of 1500 euros being bet on Betfair (I think) multiple times which you'd consider is too much of a coincidence. So maybe their favourite status is a little manipulated just like Armenia's a couple of years ago?
May 11, 20169 yr Someone on Sofabet has found potential evidence of a "bot" driving down odds for Russia, with the equivalent of 1500 euros being bet on Betfair (I think) multiple times which you'd consider is too much of a coincidence. So maybe their favourite status is a little manipulated just like Armenia's a couple of years ago? Sorry I'm new at this, what does it mean? That Russia is not as popular on odds as it seems to be?
May 11, 20169 yr Author Potentially yes. I'm not completely knowledgeable on the subject of "bots" myself but I think it is something along the lines of money being spent by a country to drive their own odds shorter and shorter in order to maximise hype and press coverage which then has the consequence of making everyone else's odds drift. Armenia were rumoured to have done this in 2014 which saw them as odds-on favourites only to finish 4th in the end, and never in contention against Austria and the Netherlands. We won't know how much their odds are being manipulated, but even if they are I expect Russia would still be favourites - just not odds-on favourites as they are now.
May 11, 20169 yr Potentially yes. I'm not completely knowledgeable on the subject of "bots" myself but I think it is something along the lines of money being spent by a country to drive their own odds shorter and shorter in order to maximise hype and press coverage which then has the consequence of making everyone else's odds drift. Armenia were rumoured to have done this in 2014 which saw them as odds-on favourites only to finish 4th in the end, and never in contention against Austria and the Netherlands. This is a bit risky since as a result, other countries and juries might show less support to the favourite in order to maximise the chances of their own country.
May 11, 20169 yr My annual bets...only two as I can only afford a tenner: £3 each way on Bulgaria at 80/1 £2 each way on Sweden at 12/1
May 11, 20169 yr What on earth happened with Bulgaria? Huge slump in the odds compared to a week or two ago. Russia currently running away with it, but the above bot talk makes interesting reading...
May 11, 20169 yr What on earth happened with Bulgaria? Huge slump in the odds compared to a week or two ago. Russia currently running away with it, but the above bot talk makes interesting reading... It's so sad :( I'm worried about Poli qualifying at this point...I believe it's the reaction to the rehearsals that have caused Bulgaria to slip so far but I'm praying she pulls out all the stops tomorrow and gets a brilliant draw if she gets to the final. I'll be most unimpressed if the best song of the year flops hard.
May 11, 20169 yr I don't know what's happened to Bulgaria either. I'm coming to the conclusion on the basis that she's fell by default due to a lot of past outsiders have gone up in the odds. Given so many semi final 2 entries have odds of over 300/1, in taking some comfort from that. This is easily my favourite entry this year too. A catchy, chart-ready track - surely the jury will reward it?!
May 11, 20169 yr Author I think she'll be fine, admittedly I'm less convinced than I was this time last week. Bulgaria usually get enough televotes, both Sofi and Elitsa & Stoyan would've qualified on televotes I believe but juries brought them down. Juries should reward this however as they usually support radio-friendly songs. My only concern is that Belgium take up the majority of female party song votes which could leave Poli struggling but I'm pretty sure she'll be ok at this point. I really want Poli and Laura to safely progress though!
May 11, 20169 yr Quite hard to judge this year so went with 5 different bets Russia Spain Serbia (my personal favourite, surprised its at 66/1) Ukraine Armenia Edited May 11, 20169 yr by XhannahlongX
May 13, 20169 yr Author Prior to tonight's jury final, here are the latest odds. As always, these are the best odds available according to Oddschecker with ties split by latest Betfair Exchange odds. The positions in brackets were the positions in the previous odds update earlier this week. 01 (01) | 08/13 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia · Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One 02 (05) | 005/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/au.png Australia · Dami Im - Sound Of Silence 03 (02) | 011/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ukraine.png Ukraine · Jamala - 1944 04 (03) | 014/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/France.png France · Amir - J'ai cherché 05 (04) | 020/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Sweden.png Sweden · Frans - If I Were Sorry 06 (07) | 033/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Armenia.png Armenia · Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave 07 (06) | 050/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Malta.png Malta · Ira Losco - Walk On Water 08 (08) | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Italy.png Italy · Francesca Michielin - No Degree Of Separation 09 (18) | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belgium.png Belgium · Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure 10 (10) | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Israel.png Israel · Hovi Star - Made Of Stars 11 (14) | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Latvia.png Latvia · Justs - Heartbeat 12 (11) | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Netherlands.png The Netherlands · Douwe Bob - Slow Down 13 (24) | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Austria.png Austria · ZOË - Loin d'ici 14 (12) | 150/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/United_Kingdom.png United Kingdom · Joe and Jake - You're Not Alone 15 (13) | 150/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Bulgaria.png Bulgaria · Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime 16 (09) | 150/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Serbia.png Serbia · Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter) 17 (16) | 200/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Spain.png Spain · Barei - Say Yay! 18 (19) | 200/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Poland.png Poland · Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life 19 (22) | 200/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Cyprus.png Cyprus · Minus One - Alter Ego 20 (29) | 300/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Lithuania.png Lithuania · Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night 21 (20) | 300/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Croatia.png Croatia · Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse 22 (33) | 300/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Georgia.png Georgia · Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold 23 (15) | 300/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Czech_Republic.png Czech Republic · Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand 24 (21) | 300/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Hungary.png Hungary · Freddie - Pioneer 25 (25) | 350/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan · Samra - Miracle 26 (26) | 500/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Germany.png Germany · Jamie-Lee - Ghost
May 13, 20169 yr Interesting thing to ponder on stat wise, in years when the pre-contest favorite hasn't won the contest, the winner has always been the song that has been rising up the betting markets in the run up to the-final (Azerbaijan in 2011, Austria in 2014). Given the evidence that has also been found so far this year of Russia using bots to keep their odds artificially low, I'm inclined to believe that Australia and Russia will be in a tighter race for the win than those odds suggest.
May 13, 20169 yr My annual bets...only two as I can only afford a tenner: £3 each way on Bulgaria at 80/1 £2 each way on Sweden at 12/1 Adding to these...as I sold some old games today to fuel my Eurovision gambling addiction :lol: Or really just because it makes the final even more exciting to watch! £5.25 each way on Australia to win at 4/1 50p on Malta to finish last at 80/1 (don't hate me Ira...I just feel like this is being WAY overpredicted in the odds, even though it's hardly going to come last, but it's worth a 50p shot) £1 on Poland to finish last at 25/1 £1 on Azerbaijan to finish last at 12/1 £1 on Czech Republic to finish last at 8/1 £1 on Cyprus to finish last at 25/1
May 14, 20169 yr Odds shouldn't have existed. They promote specific countries every time and they always have an effect. I hope they will fail this year and we will have an unexpected winner!
May 14, 20169 yr Author Australia are closing in on Russia rapidly here, down to less than 2/1 in places while Russia are nearly back up to Evens after being as low as 1/2 yesterday!
May 14, 20169 yr Russia are reportedly on the brink of losing the top spot in the betting! AUSSIES ASSEMBLE!
May 14, 20169 yr So ... It's about to start in 5 mins!!! I will be watching with my parents. Mum is disappointed that Belarus didn't qualify as she wanted to see the performance with him naked with wolves in the final :lol:
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