Wiktoria had by far the biggest streams gain today, so it looks like it certainly wasn't just an extra short-term boost from having an immediate release. Anton has nearly overtaken Loreen though so that's more evidence that she'll probably lose out there.

 

I'm currently thinking that televoters may go for a top 5 along the lines of Jon Henrik, Wiktoria, Robin, Nano, Owe in that order. But I would imagine the international jury won't favour Jon Henrik as much as Wiktoria, Robin and Nano - although he was still 4th in the jury in 2015 I believe.

 

Then again that's an all heat 4 top 2 and heat 4 had by far the least app votes of any heat so who knows.

 

Currently my gut says Wiktoria can pull off the win, and what a winner she would be!

Yeah I do think it will be Wiktoria, I know "Constellation Prize didn't win and neither should or will this" is a bit of a weak reasoning but I doubt Robin will do it either and the only other contender feels like maybe Nano who as you say isn't pulling in the streams or views so I can't see him doing enough. It feels a bit too good to be true but logically it should be Wiktoria surely? Jon Henrik is a contender too I guess but as with Robin I feel like if Jag ar fri didn't win this won't (although tbf this doesn't have a behemoth obvious winner like Heroes standing in the way).

I don't think Owe will get much televotes at all actually, the Swedes really tend to get their gameface on in the Final as opposed to the heats and the stuff like that tends to be mostly forgotten about. I agree with you about Wiktoria though, I think it's between her, Robin and probably Nano as well although he's not setting the streaming platforms alight like a I'd expect the favorite to.

 

Another crackpot theory I have is that they'll make like the last few years and have two AC qualifiers opening and closing (Samir & Viktor/Hasse in 15, Panetoz/Samir & Viktor in 16) and I reckon the powers that be will be wanting The Foo opening and Loreen closing. If Loreen loses though, I reckon they'll be fine with Anton opening and The Foo closing so, if they're presenting the results like last year then if they say "first position goes to the winner of duel number four", then she's lost it. In whichever case I reckon something like this will be the final running order

 

01 The Foo/Anton

02 Jon Henrik ft Aninia

03 Owe

04 Lisa Ajax

05 Benjamin

06 Wiktoria

07 Nano

08 Mariette

09 Boris

10 Robin

11 Ace

12 Loreen/The Foo

I've decided As I Lay Me Down is above even Statements for me, it's pure pop joy and that's something that the list of confirmed entries REALLY needs :wub:

 

Same. It's been *slightly* ahead for me since I first heard it but it's running away in my affections from Statements now. It's just such a perfect and much needed pure pop song.

 

Probably the most I've hammered a song on repeat since Sheppard's A Grade Playa two and a half years ago :o

If Loreen does have the support to get through AC then I still think she will probably win it all with a middling televote and a fairly clear international jury victory. I just can't see her beating Anton who will pick up app votes from lots of people where Loreen I guess will get 5 from some and 0 from others.

Wiktoria is on point.

It's idiotic to me that a potential winner (Loreen) may miss the final due to the duel format but we'll definitely get one of guaranteed no-hopers Boris or Dismissed there.

 

I could stomach the top four going through and her coming fifth if it was based solely on votes, but this system gives 'haters' the chance to vote against her.

Edited February 28, 20178 yr by gooddelta

I missed the show on Saturday but I'm up to date with the qualifiers now, Loreen's is good but I feel it's a tad overhyped on here, definitely not a patch on Euphoria! Wiktoria surprised me though, I really rather like her song and would be quite happy with it winning. Would like a bit more light and shade in the vocals between verse and chorus but that's a small criticism.

Nothing is touching 'Statements' for me at the moment, but I do really like 'As I Lay Me Down' and 'Wild Child' a LOT. I also think that Loreen would do best internationally in the Eurovision final over the likes of Wiktoria, Ace or Jon. It's just, can she branch out enough in Sweden, to MAKE it to the final? (Does this make sense? lmao)

 

I can see 'Statements' high top 10, 'As I Lay Me Down' mid-low top 10 with 'Wild Child' & Jon Henrik finishing low top 10 - mid top 20...

 

But hey. I know nothing about Eurovision so if AILMD does manage to win, watch it storm to vitory with a 50+points gap or something :')

I'd agree with those predictions there, although I'm not totally convinced Jon Henrik would be a certain qualifier just because we have nothing to compare it to in the modern jury era whereas we know Scandipop songs always get the support. I'm not sure I see many televoters rushing to vote for it except for Icelandics and Finns in their semi. But Aninia will probably save him and make it accessible enough. Especially if Aninia follows through on comments she made that she would potentially translate her chorus into English for Eurovision.

I've taken a look at the streams from last year - we don't have a runaway public vote winner on our hands here, as things stand. Still a lot to play for too. The difference between Wiktoria and Nano now is the difference between Molly Sandén and Wiktoria last year. Looking more and more like it might come down to the international juries.

 

05. 221,301 Wiktoria

07. 182,244 Robin

09. 165,005 Benjamin

12. 150,179 FO&O

15. 143,467 Nano

18. 131,912 Jon Henrik

19. 121,579 Loreen

21. 114,316 Anton

23. 108,555 Mariette

24. 107,868 De Vet Du

33. 087,677 Lisa

42. 076,489 Ace

 

vs

 

1.(1) Frans (479,209, -67,578) [1st on televote in final - 1.82m votes / 68 points]

3.(2) Molly Sanden (217,536, -6,944) [6th on televote in final - 990k votes / 37 points]

4.(5) Robin Bengtsson (207,832, +1,138) [4th on televote in final - 1.14m votes / 43 points]

6.(4) Samir och Viktor (189,641, -22,531) [11th on televote in final - 850k votes / 31 points]

8.(6) Oscar Zia (173,749, -12,675) [3rd on televote in final - 1.15m votes / 43 points]

9.(9) Panetoz (169,000, -5,427) [5th on televote in final - 1.03m votes / 39 points]

10.(11) Lisa Ajax (158,664, -3,364) [10th on televote in final - 880k votes / 33 points]

 

12.(10) SaRaha (153,764, -12,517) [7th on televote in final - 970k votes / 36 points]

15.(14) Wiktoria (143,141, -2,510) [2nd on televote in final - 1.21m votes / 45 points]

18.(17) Ace Wilder (123,684, -8,144) [8th on televote in final - 930k votes / 35 points]

26.(23) Boris Rene (99,664, -5,394) [9th on televote in final - 930k votes / 35 points]

27.(24) Albin & Mattias (95,882, -6,516) [OUT in AC vs Boris René]

32.(28) David Lindgren (89,243, -8,849) [12th on televote in final - 740k votes / 28 points]

34.(26) Dolly Style (85,714, -15,728) [OUT in AC vs Samir & Viktor]

 

41.(38) ISA (68,101, -9046) [OUT in AC vs SaRaha]

57.(56) Molly Pettersson Hammar (38,994, -6,705) [OUT in AC vs Panetoz]

It's not like they're aren't spoiled for choice with potential good results, Hold On, Wild Child, A Million Years, I Can't Go On and As I Lay Me Down would all likely be in contention for the win in Kyiv and everything else except Boogieman Blues would probably be in the upper reaches. Statements is the kind of thing that would do a Mans/Dami Im storming of the jury voting (hell, potentially by an even bigger margin if they really love it) but would not be able to equal that on televotes at which point it becomes all about the margins and how well the televote favorites did relative to Sweden.

My gut feeling still says Hold On would underperform at Eurovision, the song doesn't seem strong enough to me to overcome Nano's lack of stage presence, star quality and charisma.

 

I could see it doing ok with the juries and quite well on the televote but only enough for a 13th place type result really.

 

Definitely agree that the other contenders all sound like easy smashes though, Robin's song is not really amazing but the performance is so slick and looks so good on screen, and somehow makes the song feel like a much bigger and better entry.

Edited February 28, 20178 yr by gooddelta

I feel like the likes of Wiktoria, Robin and Mariette would also finish solidly 6th-10th, I agree Nano would "underperform" in midtable and Ace would probably languish in the mid-low teens. Nothing quite screams Eurovision top 5, only Loreen has that extra something that could break in. None of those first 3 I mention have quite the same stand-out appeal as a Frans to go top 5, but are higher quality than You which went midtable. So yeah I can see them in between them and potentially a little bit higher than deserved due to low quality of 2017 at the moment.

I think pretty much everything so far apart from Boogieman Blues would be on track for top ten. Wild Child, Nano, Robin, Wiktoria, FO&O and Loreen would be contenders.

The thought of Sweden turning up with Boogieman Blues *.*

 

To think we came so close to Snalla Snalla going in 2009, I'm forever intrigued as to how that would have done/if it would have been left in Swedish etc...

Normally MF entries don't get music videos at all, let alone in the middle of the contest!

 

 

I hope Jon Henrik Fjallgren & Aninia do well in the final.

Wiktoria's song is very overrated, boring, and outdated.

Wiktoria now joint favourite...and still highest on Spotify *.*

If Loreen does have the support to get through AC then I still think she will probably win it all with a middling televote and a fairly clear international jury victory. I just can't see her beating Anton who will pick up app votes from lots of people where Loreen I guess will get 5 from some and 0 from others.

Yeah I've been thinking this, the more I listen to Statements the more I feel it will be all or nothing. If it makes the final, it will do as you say, but it seems ridiculous that a potential Eurovision winner.

 

 

I suppose it depends what else emerges from other countries, but I do think Wiktoria as I said would be a much needed burst of joy at Eurovision and a contender. It's very infectious, I can see it having the best chance out of anyone who isn't Loreen. Because it's Sweden and they know how to stage etc. to get maximum potential out of their entries, I expect most of the songs still in the running would finish top 15, it's just I see Loreen and Wiktoria being the biggest contenders. It would be a shame for either of those potential top 5s to be shunned for a traditional chanting song, dated Rudiemental lite or yet another twink.