Another poll showing the Tory lead narrowing.

 

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 42% (-)

LAB: 34% (+2)

LDEM: 13% (-1)

BREX: 4% (+1)

GRN: 3% (+1)

 

via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov

Regarding the vote gap needed by the Tories for a majority.

 

In 2010, a hung parliament occurred with a 7.2% difference between Con and Lab (but the Lib Dems had a good year with a 23.6% vote share). In 2015, the Tories won a majority with a 6.6% difference between Con and Lab (with the Lib Dems doing badly on 8.1%).

 

Ideally, the Lib Dems need to do better and take seats in the south which Labour don't have a chance in. Without that, chances are that the Tories will stay in power.

Have also just read that Labour need to get to around 37-38% with the Tories not moving to avoid 20+ seat losses to the Tories though. Which doesn't seem at all likely at the moment.

Boris Johnson's predicted Commons majority slashed from 80 to 12 in a week, poll of polls reveals.

 

 

Boris Johnson has seen his projected Commons majority slashed from 80 to just 12 seats in a week as Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party eats into the Conservatives’ lead, a poll of polls has revealed.

 

The survey - based on almost 10,000 voters - shows Jeremy Corbyn closing the gap on the Tories in the same way as Theresa May’s lead collapsed after her manifesto launch and her refusal to appear in TV debates.

 

Labour is squeezing the Liberal Democrats by gaining Remain voters who see the party as the better prospect to block Mr Johnson’s bid for a rapid Brexit, according to Electoral Calculus which uses socio-economic and past voting data to take account of individual constituencies’ profiles.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/1...hed-80-12-week/

 

 

The currently accepted rationale amongst the experts is that if Labour's polling over 30% and the Conservative lead is 9% or less then the House of Commons is in hung parliament territory.

 

So last night's poll indicates a hung parliament as Labour are on 34% and the gap is only 8%.

 

There are additional variables this year to take into account. Some 1.8 million+ younger voters (age 34 and below) have joined the electoral register. They tend to be more pro-Europe, more pro-environment and less pro-Conservative overall.

 

Traditionally, the turnout rate among younger people is lower than for older people but this time if younger people actually turn out to vote at the same, or greater, rate than older people then that in itself will make it more potentially difficult for the Conservatives to get a majority.

 

 

 

Edited November 30, 20195 yr by common sense

The currently accepted rationale amongst the experts is that if Labour's polling over 30% and the Conservative lead is 9% or less then the House of Commons is in hung parliament territory.

 

So last night's poll indicates a hung parliament as Labour are on 34% and the gap is only 8%.

 

I don't really get that, as last time the Tories were only 9 seats short on a lead of under 3%, and it's not like there wasn't tactical voting against them last time, too... :huh:

I don't really get that, as last time the Tories were only 9 seats short on a lead of under 3%, and it's not like there wasn't tactical voting against them last time, too... :huh:

 

 

Well Vid that's what John Curtice, polling expert says. He says on his calculations Labour must be 30 or below and a gap of at least 7% for a small Tory majority. Obviously when Tories go 40+ their majority increases.

Edited November 30, 20195 yr by common sense

Hung parliament territory on variability's sake only I would guess. Poll leads never translate into accurate seat measurements, the Tories could still get a majority with that poll lead.

Hung parliament territory on variability's sake only I would guess. Poll leads never translate into accurate seat measurements, the Tories could still get a majority with that poll lead.

 

 

Hope so.

Also can we just remember for a second what the polls are calculating -90% 60+ turmout, 20% youth turnout... These figures are based on that. They are also ignoring the never Bojoers in the south east, mainly older Tory women. Factor them in and factor in a MUCH HIGHER YOUTH TURNOUT, plus the millions of newly registered youth, and the polls are likely much, much closer than they let on.

Also can we just remember for a second what the polls are calculating -90% 60+ turmout, 20% youth turnout... These figures are based on that. They are also ignoring the never Bojoers in the south east, mainly older Tory women. Factor them in and factor in a MUCH HIGHER YOUTH TURNOUT, plus the millions of newly registered youth, and the polls are likely much, much closer than they let on.

 

Are you assuming that *all* polling companies are using the same methodology? :huh:

 

Yes. Otherwise the results would be veeery different.

Also can we just remember for a second what the polls are calculating -90% 60+ turmout, 20% youth turnout... These figures are based on that. They are also ignoring the never Bojoers in the south east, mainly older Tory women. Factor them in and factor in a MUCH HIGHER YOUTH TURNOUT, plus the millions of newly registered youth, and the polls are likely much, much closer than they let on.

 

 

You're right Michael. The best poll before the actual results will be the 10pm exit poll as last time it was spot on. Think it correctly predicted the number of seats for the 3 main parties in fact. Am sure it got Tories spot on.

Here's the turnout from the last few elections. Risen every election.

 

2001 - 59.4%

2005 - 61.4%

2010 - 65.1 %

2015 - 66.1%

2017 - 68.7%

 

 

Do we think it'll be down this time, December, cold, early dark evenings?

@1200824832042164225

 

Edited November 30, 20195 yr by Envoirment

OMG that's worrying. Just a 6 point lead and Labour on 33%.

Boris Johnson's lead halved putting UK in 'hung parliament territory', latest poll reveals

 

The Conservative lead in the general election campaign has been halved in just one week, putting the UK in “hung parliament territory”, an exclusive poll for The Independent shows.

 

Boris Johnson’s party is now only six points ahead of Labour, it has found – matching other surveys suggesting the race is tightening dramatically, amid growing Tory nervousness.

 

Jeremy Corbyn is successfully winning back the support of voters threatening to defect to other parties, the poll by BMG Research shows, taking his rating up five points to 33 per cent.

 

The Conservatives, meanwhile, have dipped two points to 39 per cent, six points ahead instead of the 13 points in BMG’s survey a week ago.

 

Crucially, polling experts believe a lead of at least six points will be needed to deliver the Commons majority Mr Johnson is seeking – and Brexit in January.

Labour are going all out now over the next 11 days to unseat Boris. I just can't see it happening but Labour are drafting in dozens of activists to visit as many homes as possible to tell people he's a liar and can't be trusted.

Edited November 30, 20195 yr by common sense

I solemnly swear I will not ramp up my expectations but that poll puts Labour within the margin of error of being either the only viable leaders of a minority government - if it's wrong in Labours favour - or being crushed in a Tory landslide if it's the other way round.

I solemnly swear I will not ramp up my expectations but that poll puts Labour within the margin of error of being either the only viable leaders of a minority government - if it's wrong in Labours favour - or being crushed in a Tory landslide if it's the other way round.

 

 

Yeah this election's still all to play for folks. :o