Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 43% (+3)

LAB: 30% (-)

LDEM: 15% (-)

BREX: 5% (-3)

GRN: 2% (-1)

 

via

@PanelbaseMD

, 13 - 14 Nov

Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

Average of 3 polls taking account of Brexit Party standing down in half seats, polling 11-14 Nov:

Con 42%

Lab 29%

Lib Dem 16%

Brexit Party 5%

Green 3%

Projected Con majority 64

(Scotland projected from Panelbase & YouGov, 9-25 Oct)

 

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1195454498828886016

 

Projected majority using new Electoral Calculus methodology.

https://www.independent.co.uk/News/uk/polit...-uXXDAetfV8LLvc

 

"

Election poll latest: Theresa May will win biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher, final survey predicts

 

Exclusive: Eve-of-vote poll by ComRes for The Independent gives Ms May a 10-point lead, indicating an 74-seat majority"

 

Lol. Just leaving this here.

https://www.independent.co.uk/News/uk/polit...-uXXDAetfV8LLvc

 

"

Election poll latest: Theresa May will win biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher, final survey predicts

 

Exclusive: Eve-of-vote poll by ComRes for The Independent gives Ms May a 10-point lead, indicating an 74-seat majority"

 

Lol. Just leaving this here.

 

 

She still got more seats than Commie Corbyn. :)

Edited November 16, 20195 yr by common sense

Some London constituency polls showing that Emma Dent Coad could be in trouble in Kensington, and Stephen Hammond has a fight on his hands to be re-elected in Wimbledon:

 

Kensington constituency voting intention:

 

CON: 36% (-6)

LDEM: 33% (+21)

LAB: 27% (-16)

 

via @DeltapollUK, 07 - 13 Nov

Chgs. w/ GE2017

 

Wimbledon constituency voting intention:

 

CON: 38% (-8)

LDEM: 36% (+21)

LAB: 23% (-13)

 

via @DeltapollUK, 07 - 13 Nov

Chgs. w/ GE2017

Emma only had a majority of 20 votes in 2017 so she may be ousted by either the Tories or even Lib-Dems. I'll say the Tories will re-take Kensington, so many rich people there. It's a high priority target seat for both and as John Curtice says, it's tight three way marginal seats like these that Boris needs to win to get a majority and at the same time reduce Labour's seat tally.

 

 

Ex Tory health minister Stephen had a 3000 majority in 2017 so may hang on but it is a Lib-Dem target seat.

Edited November 16, 20195 yr by common sense

I don't agree with the Lib-Dems local policy which includes blackening the name of Emma Dent-Coad and suggesting she was somehow responsible for the Grenfell tragedy. :rolleyes: No one person or organisation was to blame least of all the local MP.

 

 

Certainly a seat to watch on election night.

Edited November 16, 20195 yr by common sense

Some London constituency polls showing that Emma Dent Coad could be in trouble in Kensington, and Stephen Hammond has a fight on his hands to be re-elected in Wimbledon:

 

Kensington constituency voting intention:

 

CON: 36% (-6)

LDEM: 33% (+21)

LAB: 27% (-16)

 

via @DeltapollUK, 07 - 13 Nov

Chgs. w/ GE2017

 

Wimbledon constituency voting intention:

 

CON: 38% (-8)

LDEM: 36% (+21)

LAB: 23% (-13)

 

via @DeltapollUK, 07 - 13 Nov

Chgs. w/ GE2017

 

Voters in those seats were also asked what they would do if they thought it was a straight contest between a) the Tories and Labour, and b) Tories and Lib Dems.

 

In case a), the Tories had a comfortable lead in both seats. In scenario b), the Lib Dems had a clear lead. That tends to suggest that Labour supporters are wrong to suggest that they could win a lot more seats if the Lib Dems stood aside for them as just as many Lib Dem supporters would vote Tory as would vote Labour.

 

The poll included a third constituency, Finchley and Golders Green (once held by Thatcher and with one of the largest Jewish populations in the UK). The first poll showed the Tories with a healthy lead over the Lib Dems but the two parties were very close in scenario b) above.

Two polls just released:

 

CON: 44% (+3)

LAB: 28% (-1)

LDEM: 14% (-1)

BREX: 6% (-)

 

via @OpiniumResearch, surveyed this week

Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

 

CON: 41% (+1)

LAB: 33% (+3)

LDEM: 14% (-2)

BREX: 5% (-2)

GRN: 2% (-1)

 

via @SavantaComRes, 13 - 14 Nov

Chgs. w/ 12 Nov

 

There was also a YouGov one which has given the Tories a 17pt lead.

 

YouGov 14-15 November (changes since 11-12 November)

 

CON: 45% (+3)

LAB: 28% (-)

LD: 15% (-)

SNP: 4% (+1)

BXP: 4% (-)

GRN: 3% (-1)

I've gone through polls for each company 2017-2019, calculating an average result and Tory lead/deficit, and this is what I've come up with...

 

(-ve is Lab lead)

 

Survation -0.71

ComRes 0.70

BMG 0.79

ICM 0.91

Ipsos Mori 1.85

Opinium 2.13

Panelbase 2.50

YouGov 3.97

Kantar TNS 4.06

Deltapoll 4.21

 

As you can see, Survation is most favourable to Labour over the period, while Deltapoll are the least.

 

Presumably this is mainly due to differing methodologies. :unsure:

Edited November 17, 20195 yr by vidcapper

I've gone through polls for each company 2017-2019, calculating an average result and Tory lead/deficit, and this is what I've come up with...

 

(-ve is Lab lead)

 

Survation -0.71

ComRes 0.70

BMG 0.79

ICM 0.91

Ipsos Mori 1.85

Opinium 2.13

Panelbase 2.50

YouGov 3.97

Kantar TNS 4.06

Deltapoll 4.21

 

As you can see, Survation is most favourable to Labour over the period, while Deltapoll are the least.

 

Presumably this is mainly due to differing methodologies. :unsure:

 

That's the big difference between 2017 and now. There is at least a suspicion (I don't think any of the polling companies have admitted it) that, in the 2017 election, they adjusted their figures to fit the common narrative. If their initial adjustments resulted in figures that were well out of line with the prevailing average, they adjusted them again. The belief is that each company detected a strong shift to Labour but didn't want to report it and see it dismissed as a rogue poll.

 

Since then, the pollsters have each adjusted their methods in different ways, leading to a significant divergence in results. As with so many things, this is all to do with saving money. It is cheaper to question a random set of individuals and then adjust the figures than it is to seek out a representative sample of voters in the first place. The political parties sometimes commission polls using a representative sample, but they generally don't publish the results.

 

Prevailing narrative PLUS bandwagon effect. Thwy want the tories to win. File these polls away as fantasy.

Prevailing narrative PLUS bandwagon effect. Thwy want the tories to win. File these polls away as fantasy.

 

FFS, GIVE IT A REST! :nono:

 

The polling companies do not care who wins, just in who produces the most accurate result! Political polls are just a fraction of their business - they make their main money from wider market research, and accuracy is what counts.

Yeah right. Tell that to the pollsters over every issue plus Hillary Clinton. Michigan and Bernie, Corbyn and Mad May say hi. Polls as fake as fantasy football.

Yeah right. Tell that to the pollsters over every issue plus Hillary Clinton. Michigan and Bernie, Corbyn and Mad May say hi. Polls as fake as fantasy football.

 

How is Fantasy Football fake? :huh:

It's all made up - just like these Tory polls.

The polling companies do not care who wins, just in who produces the most accurate result! Political polls are just a fraction of their business - they make their main money from wider market research, and accuracy is what counts.

 

 

Yes Michael they do lots of market research all year round besides political polls. They research what chocolate what age groups buy, what bread, cereals, crisps we buy, radio and TV stations we listen to and watch, newspapers we buy etc etc. So advertisers can target their advertising budget accordingly. They don't care what the results are as they've been paid well by others to produce them.

 

Do you think the big companies pay to get "made up" answers! :rolleyes:

Edited November 17, 20195 yr by common sense

Kantar's methodology seems a bit off IMO though. 90% turnout among over 65s!? Seriously.. ? You can manipulate the polls to say whatever you want really, though the trends are the thing that is most important and they point to a small (narrow) Conservative majority at the moment.

 

And they are also desperately underestimating the youth vote and iveregging the old vote for these ridiculous pro-Tory results. Bumbling Bojo does not inspire old people to go vote!! The brexshit voters, after being conned by Bojo and Faragw, won't be frothing at the mouth to go vote.