This clearly illustrates the problem with our electoral system...

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/d...econd-world-war

 

 

I got a begging letter from Bojo. I knew he was after the north east seats :rolleyes: f*** OFF!!

If there’s a Freepost reply envelope, don’t forget to use it.

I got a begging letter from Bojo. I knew he was after the north east seats :rolleyes: f*** OFF!!

 

 

 

Let me guess, does it say Brexit's oven-ready? :D

For once, I agree with you. My seat is an entirely safe Labour and has been for decades, and while I’m fine with that this time, as it fits my own intentions, it’s not always the case yet it’s kind of hard to even bother going ‘tactical’ or believe that your vote will make a difference under this system unless you’re in an area that swings, and ofc. it’ll never change as it doesn’t suit those in power :/

For once, I agree with you. My seat is an entirely safe Labour and has been for decades, and while I’m fine with that this time, as it fits my own intentions, it’s not always the case yet it’s kind of hard to even bother going ‘tactical’ or believe that your vote will make a difference under this system unless you’re in an area that swings, and ofc. it’ll never change as it doesn’t suit those in power :/

 

Tewkesbury is one of those permanently Tory seats, so it's basically the same thing in reverse. Even in their best years, the LD's can't get to within 10% - only in a by-election might the situation get interesting...

Wonder if the turn-out would be higher if every vote in every seat could actually make a difference. I hear people here in East Ham say they don't bother to vote as Stephen Timms has such a huge majority. Can't remember if it was 2015 or 17 when it was the largest majority in the UK.

Edited December 2, 20195 yr by common sense

Wonder if the turn-out would be higher if every vote in every seat could actually make a difference. I hear people here in East Ham say they don't bother to vote as Stephen Timms has such a huge majority. Can't remember if it was 2015 or 17 when it was the largest majority in the UK.

 

Do seats with large majorities tend to have lower turnouts? :unsure:

 

Just compared the 50 most marginal seats with the 50 safest - less than 1% difference in average turnout, so that rather throws a spanner in that theory...

Edited December 2, 20195 yr by vidcapper

Do seats with large majorities tend to have lower turnouts? :unsure:

 

 

Hmm, not sure really. Will have a check later. You could put a horse up here with a red rosette and he'd get voted in.

Edited December 2, 20195 yr by common sense

From pollsters Survation.

 

 

Why is Labour doing better in polling?

Increased vote share among Remain voters:

 

Almost half of respondents who voted remain in 2016 currently stating a vote choice now say they will vote Labour +10 over 2 weeks ago.

 

Labour's poll increase is coming from Remainers.

Do seats with large majorities tend to have lower turnouts? :unsure:

 

Just compared the 50 most marginal seats with the 50 safest - less than 1% difference in average turnout, so that rather throws a spanner in that theory...

I did something similar for, I think, the 2015 election. I looked at the safe seats with the highest turnouts. They were nearly all Tory with East Ham being the glaring exception.

 

Sadly, I suspect a lot of people have no idea whether their seat is safe, marginal or something in between :( Let’s face it, that’s why parties construct those infamous bar charts.

From pollsters Survation.

Why is Labour doing better in polling?

Increased vote share among Remain voters:

 

Almost half of respondents who voted remain in 2016 currently stating a vote choice now say they will vote Labour +10 over 2 weeks ago.

 

Labour's poll increase is coming from Remainers.

 

But not necessarily from Tory Remainers - perhaps their aversion to Corbyn is stronger than their aversion to Brexit? :unsure:

 

The New York Times has got the tone of the campaign pretty accurately....

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/29/opinion/...on-johnson.html

Where relevant, Tory Remainers could go for Lib Dems. As in Home Counties, which, granted, most will stay blue but some will be run close. You might also characterise Remain-leaning Tory voters as ones that actually wouldn't be happy with electioneering, exploiting terrorist attacks and lying - they could yet be lost.

 

The numbers on Labour Leavers show 11%, while Tory Remainers show 17% (percentages of Remain/Leave voters). Which isn't too disparate.

 

The positive trend for Labour amongst Remainers indicates they're gaining as the one to rally behind. The election drawing closer will force anyone really clinging to their Brexit ideology to choose - depending on constitutency.

Anyone still undecided on who to vote for?

 

I still haven't made up my mind (not that it'll make a difference here, but still...)

 

No way it will it be the LD's though, too pro-EU, and they've proven incompetent in running Chelt.BC.

Anyone still undecided on who to vote for?

 

I still haven't made up my mind (not that it'll make a difference here, but still...)

 

No way it will it be the LD's though, too pro-EU, and they've proven incompetent in running Chelt.BC.

 

Well given your views for you it should be an easy choice of either the lying right wing Tories, or the lying right wing Brexit Party

 

I was undecided but all the tactical voting sites for my constituency are now pointing to Labour so nationalise me, Corbyn bby xx

 

to be entirely fair I was leaning that way pretty strongly not long after the start of the campaign, I did vote + campaign for Lib Dem in 2017 and voted for them at the Europeans but I've been finding more things to disagree with them on, particularly economics, lately, and the final Labour Brexit policy is one I can be happy with.

Lols!!

 

Il be voting for Claire Hanna in South Belfast!

Well given your views for you it should be an easy choice of either the lying right wing Tories, or the lying right wing Brexit Party

 

He won't have Brexit in his constituency. If Vid truly is not voting for Tory as he often claims then he's got the choice of doing the heel face turn of the century and voting for Labour or upping the numbers on the Green Party's spreadsheets.

He won't have Brexit in his constituency. If Vid truly is not voting for Tory as he often claims then he's got the choice of doing the heel face turn of the century and voting for Labour or upping the numbers on the Green Party's spreadsheets.

 

Given he's openly criticised 'the loony left' on numerous occasions his choices are really down to 2... unless there are some right wing independents or the BNP/ UKIP in his area :lol:

He won't have Brexit in his constituency. If Vid truly is not voting for Tory as he often claims then he's got the choice of doing the heel face turn of the century and voting for Labour or upping the numbers on the Green Party's spreadsheets.

 

There's no Brexit - and I'm not anti-labour just anti-Corbyn, therefore I could easily vote for Labour's Lara Chaplin, especially as they don't have a snowball in hell's chance in Tewkesbury

 

Given he's openly criticised 'the loony left' on numerous occasions his choices are really down to 2... unless there are some right wing independents or the BNP/ UKIP in his area :lol:

 

See above.

 

I might just choose the NOTA option by spoiling my ballot paper though.

Edited December 2, 20195 yr by vidcapper