The Tories poll badly, but Sunak polls really well. I don't know what people were expecting. As if Labour flirting with the right is having a negative effect on the polls. I highly doubt if there was an out and out Socialist leading Labour that the Party would be ahead in the polls as they are.

 

There's been no gaffs so far this year with the Tories and Sunak is obviously a very capable leader. As always, it will be how much the Parties self implode in the run up to the election. It's going to be a tall order for Labour, I think part of the problem Labour will have is suddently some seats in Scotland will look very attainable, I'm not sure at the start of 2023 the strategists saw Sturgeon leaving, so it leaves a huge opportunity there, but as ever, there's only so much money and the Party might jepordise some seats elsewhere through complacency.

The lead's always been dulled by high numbers of don't knows (or sometimes Reform) that were probably easily coming back to Tory at a time like now, around an election campaign.

 

Problem is, (on an electoral level) not so much that Labour is flirting with the right, but that it does so while adopting a managerial class veneer, plays into conservative strategy of 'liberal elites' very easily, something that a skilled democratic socialist leader (e.g. Sanders not Corbyn) can ignore.

 

Though I'd still say, from the last round of interpersonals, that Starmer still outperforms Sunak on key metrics, very important to keep up for election time, but has certain negative traits (like dishonesty) that are starting to stick to him, just not as much as the Tories.

 

I don't think Sunak's that strong at all on an election game footing. Does feel like these locals will have low turnout though as Starmer's weaponised apathy.

Hearing that an election is being planned for September 2024, in 16 months from now.

 

 

@1647887504073170944

 

15-20 Point lead is still enough for a majority, even with the boundary reform shenanigans.

 

The comedy situation though would be Labour one short of a majority and Jeremy Corbyn winning Islington North. Is he running as an Independent or is he jumping ship to the Green Party?

 

 

Starmer appears to still be dragging the Labour Party down, whilst Sunak appears to be dragging the Tories up. 'None of these' still absolutely smashing it. *.*

 

@1647313804240330752

 

Liz Truss - we shall not forget; banter era September - October 2022 :clap:

There wasn't space to fit her name :lol: :lol:

Mahahaha that would be a moment if JC held the balance of power!

Mahahaha that would be a moment if JC held the balance of power!

It would be no different from him being a Labour MP as part of a Labour government with a majority of two. His record of rebellion would mean he would probably vote against the government regularly regardless of his party label.

I can’t see the Tories winning the next election. The worst outcome will most likely be a hung parliament but hopefully Labour will get a working majority to govern. I think it will be a lot closer than the polls are predicting but the cost of living crisis will be the main factor unless there is another Tory scandal before then.

Edited April 19, 20232 yr by neill2407

@1650530042399563779

It would be no different from him being a Labour MP as part of a Labour government with a majority of two. His record of rebellion would mean he would probably vote against the government regularly regardless of his party label.

 

The SCG in the Labour Party number about 21 MPs so it would be interesting to see if Labour hold a small majority what type of budget Starmer would propose if he relied on their help. John McDonnell could be walking into 10 Downing St to speak to Starmer as much as Steve Baker currently is!

Latest poll gives the Lib Dems a local elections related boost.

• Highest Lib Dem polling since before the 2019 GE. (16%, previously 15% after Johnson resigned in July 2022)
• Labour Party lead down to 12 points.
• Around a 50 seat majority for Labour on these figures.

@1655603477496619008

@1655973461058043905

 

@1656638499846586369

Edited May 11, 20232 yr by ElectroBoy

@1657039416622284803

Oooft, Tories down to 24%.

 

You love to see it. *.*

Latest YouGov: Tories now down to 22%.

 

 

New YouGov poll gives Labour a *25 point* lead

 

Westminister Voting Intention:

 

LAB: 47% (+1)

CON: 22% (-2)

LDM: 9% (-1)

REF: 9% (+1)

GRN: 7% (=)

SNP: 3% (=)

 

Via @YouGov, On 5-6 July,

Changes w/ 27 June.

 

If repeated at a general election 317 Conservative MPs would lose their seats, including Rishi Sunak, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Grant Shapps, Michael Fabricant and Andrea Jenkyns

Beautiful stuff - and that methodology doesn't take into account tactical voting does it?

I would be hugely surprised if the PM lost his seat in any scenario, has that ever happened before?

I would be hugely surprised if the PM lost his seat in any scenario, has that ever happened before?

 

Nope, think the closest was in 1906 - when the PM resigned, a new government took over and immediately called an election in which the (now former) PM then lost their seat.

 

New Omnisis poll gives Labour a 26 pt lead which would translate to a *wait for it* four hundred and eighty-two (482) seat majority. Total wipeout for the Tories. *.*

 

LAB 51% (+3)

CON 25% (-1)

LD 8% (-)

REF 5% (-2)

GRN 5% (-)

SNP 3% (-1)

 

Nope, think the closest was in 1906 - when the PM resigned, a new government took over and immediately called an election in which the (now former) PM then lost their seat.

 

New Omnisis poll gives Labour a 26 pt lead which would translate to a *wait for it* four hundred and eighty-two (482) seat majority. Total wipeout for the Tories. *.*

 

LAB 51% (+3)

CON 25% (-1)

LD 8% (-)

REF 5% (-2)

GRN 5% (-)

SNP 3% (-1)

 

And the Tories would still be supporting FPTP despite getting fewer seats than the Lib Dems after winning three times as many votes.

Corbyn would do wonders with that, and would probably have Tories down to about 9-15%!!! Shame Starmer wasn't the Brexshit Labour leader with Corbyn taking over now :( He got shafted by the wrong time.

And the Tories would still be supporting FPTP despite getting fewer seats than the Lib Dems after winning three times as many votes.

 

Unfort this will never happen.