I'm not sure Reform have any seats nailed on (even Clacton) but there's a couple of seats where I think they might just about manage enough support to either get over the line or come very close. They seem to be directly eating into the Conservative base that isn't available to be swayed the other way and while in most places that'll hurt the right-wing cause and their vote will be spread out like the Greens, like the Greens there may be a few places they can get through.

 

I think the Reform seats that I think they have any single realistic chance of winning would be Clacton, Boston & Skegness and then Castle Point and Waveney Valley - Castle Point has historically had a tad stronger UKIP-like vote than most of the other Kent-to-Lincolnshire coast seats and I'd rank it as their 3rd most likely (and if they don't get that then they're probably not getting similar seats like Basildon etc), and then Waveney Valley is a weird anomaly of a new seat that's been created piecemeal from a bunch of other seats and as a result, without history has both Greens and Reform polling well there such that what polling there is is guessing at a 4-way race leaning towards Green/Reform marginal (!) and given most of the previous voters were solid Tory, I'd give Reform the advantage.

 

Ashfield is lost for them IMO though I may be biased with the natural intense personal dislike of Lee Anderson, he's been very publicly a menace though and you have Ashfield Independents which I am convinced will eat into the potential vote share Reform could have had.

 

I'd rate Clacton at possibly 60% to Reform right now, the rest lower.

Our new MRP has the Conservatives on their lowest seat tally in the party’s almost 200-year history

 

Labour: 425 (+223)

Conservative: 108 (-257)

Lib Dem: 67 (+56)

SNP: 20 (-28)

Reform UK: 5 (+5)

Plaid: 4 (±0)

Green: 2 (+1)

 

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/4980...otal-in-history

That has the Lib Dems winning Maidenhead, Witney and Henley, seats previously represented by Theresa May, David Cameron and Boris Johnson :lol:

That has the Lib Dems winning Maidenhead, Witney and Henley, seats previously represented by Theresa May, David Cameron and Boris Johnson :lol:

 

Imagine the headlines! :lol:

I don't really agree with the views on clacton

 

Survation

Farage - 42%

Tories - 27%

Labour - 24%

 

Yougov

Conservative: 25%

Labour: 18%

Lib Dem: 6%

Green: 5%

Reform UK: 45%

SNP: 0%

Plaid: 0%

Other: 1%

 

This isn't even close to being a toss up really. I know there was supposedly another poll showing it closer but I think that was data from before Farage even announced he was standing. Hard to say with the others since turnout is unpredictable given Tory voters must feel deflated and most seats reform can win are against them. Whats interesting is the undecideds and don't knows break quite well for reform I think its like 20% so I think five seats sounds about right. Maybe more if their vote keeps increasing or maybe they just get 1 or 2 and the hype doesn't translate into votes that has happened before but Clacton looks near enough in the bag by those numbers. It is Farage and he's capable of saying or doing something that ruins it all but right now its hard to see how he doesn't win

 

 

I don't know who people polling are but this is their poll

 

Westminster Voting Intention:

 

LAB: 35% (-4)

RFM: 24% (+7)

CON: 15% (-4)

LDM: 12% (+2)

GRN: 8% (-1)

SNP: 3% (=)

 

People Polling, 18 Jun.

Changes w/ 12 Jun.

 

 

I don't know who people polling are but this is their poll

 

Westminster Voting Intention:

 

LAB: 35% (-4)

RFM: 24% (+7)

CON: 15% (-4)

LDM: 12% (+2)

GRN: 8% (-1)

SNP: 3% (=)

 

People Polling, 18 Jun.

Changes w/ 12 Jun.

 

That poll should be treated with all the salt in the Dead Sea. Commissioned for GB News.

That poll should be treated with all the salt in the Dead Sea. Commissioned for GB News.

The big questions are whether People Polling are signed up to the pollsters’ code of practice and whether this is a representative sample or just Gammon News viewers.

People Polling is, as well as being affiliated with GB News, Matt Goodwin's outfit, if you are not unfortunately familiar, an "academic" barely worthy of the title who spends more time explaining why right-wing populism is something political parties should look into (and inevitably, anti-wokeism) than coming up with any level-headed analysis. I would not put any stock in any poll he commissions, particularly when it shows a result more favourable to right-wing populism than all of the others. He even says that 'the polling was above board' in his post putting out the result. Which is suspicious.

 

BUT, I've just gone and quickly looked at some of the data. First off, the data is acquired from respondents who are part of a panel where they are offered a chance to win money. They still sample as required by the Polling Council, including by socioeconomic status, after that but that initial sourcing strikes me as potentially more favourable to respondents who might vote for smaller parties, particularly populist parties like Reform. Though other polls do it, but in my experience, Opinium and YouGov etc do offer cash rewards but it's not a headline sourcing as a reason for taking part (I've done surveys for YouGov for years and I think I got their £50 cheque once), after enough polls you're paid a token amount.

 

Secondly, the other thing that they're doing that looks non-standard is as well as removing Don't Knows from the final sample as most pollsters do, they're also removing people who answered lower than 6/10 on likeliness to vote which I don't think is as standard a practice and also kinda arbitrary, helping parties with more devoted support like, say, the Farage Fanclub. As an example of how good pollsters might do it, Survation weights them by adding a multiplicative factor of 0.9 for 9, 0.8 for 8 etc.

 

so basically there's a number of small things they're doing with their methodology that I don't trust and I would stick to more established names.

 

Or there's this research on a previous suspect poll they did which had the Greens at 13% if the above isn't convincing enough:

https://pollingreport.uk/articles/the-green...-might-be-wrong

A constituency poll in Clacton has Nigel Farage winning there by 27 points

 

Farage (REF): 48%

Watling (CON): 21%

Owusu-Nepaul (LAB): 18%

Bensilum (LDEM): 6%

Osben (GRN): 6%

 

JLPartnersPolls]

 

Third diff poll showing a pretty huge lead for Farage, looks a done deal. Shame there aren’t any for Corbyn’s and Sunak’s seat as they look a little more up in the air

With postage votes out and about, it's a done deal. He's won the seat.thr Regorm vote is creeping up worryingly hogh!! Wither Starmer sorts it out next parlisment cycle or Farage is next pm.

Welsh Westminster Voting Intention (19-20 June):

 

Labour 46% (+1)

Reform 17% (-1)

Conservative 15% (-3)

Plaid Cymru 10% (-1)

Lib Dem 7% (+2)

Green 4% (–)

Other 1% (+1)

 

Changes +/- 5-7 June

 

Reform now above the Tories in Wales which I guess isn’t that surprising I think they were big on UKIP if I remember rightly. Scotland is strong SNP or Labour so the Tories really being squeezed everywhere, pretty sure they’re close to being wiped out in London too

Rishi’s seat. Survation

 

Poll in Richmond and Northallerton

 

CON 39% (-24)

LAB 28% (+12)

REF 18% (new)

LD 9% (-3)

GRE 4% (-)

OTH 3% (-1)

 

F/w 12th - 21st June. Changes vs. Notional 2019 result

Lib Dems and Green need to vote Labour!! Even then, looks like Rishi will be safe boo

Would be absolutely hilarious if Rishi somehow loses his seat.

There was a poll I saw on another forum for Braverman's constituency and it was close between Tories, Lib Dems and Labour. Hopefully she loses her seat.

 

It would be funny if Sunak loses his seat, but I'd rather some of the more outspoken/ dangerous politicians lose theres.

My family are so divisive when it comes to this election.

 

Dad. - won’t vote/if he did it would be Conservatives

Mum - Reform (she’s just focused on immigration)

Brother - Green

Sister - clueless

Me - Labour (though LD at heart)

If Labour win Richmond it’s fair to say the tories will be on less than 50 seats lol last PM to lose his seat was Arthur Balfour in 1906!

My family are so divisive when it comes to this election.

 

Dad. - won’t vote/if he did it would be Conservatives

Mum - Reform (she’s just focused on immigration)

Brother - Green

Sister - clueless

Me - Labour (though LD at heart)

 

Interesting though that a lot of Conservative leaning people probably won't vote, I think it might for sure mean they get less than what the polls say.

 

I haven't seen a poll for braveman’s seat while she deserves to lose I think there would be more talk about it if it were close

If Labour win Richmond it’s fair to say the tories will be on less than 50 seats lol last PM to lose his seat was Arthur Balfour in 1906!

 

This a common myth. Balfour wasn't Prime Minister going into the 1906 election, the opposition had already formed a government and Henry Campbell Bannerman was Prime Minister going into the election.

Just reading up on that election this evening and yes Campbell-Bannerman was indeed PM, Balfour resigned the month before the election to let the Liberals form a government hoping they would split when in the position but the smartly called a GE for the following month. Who was it before this some Lord in the 1700s?

 

Quite an election the 1906 one, the final one where Labour or the tories weren’t the largest parties!