Hoping the Greens will at least get their 2nd MP this election even on a reduced %.

 

And we haven't had the campaigns really start yet - they could really change polls right up to the last minute.

 

There's also the caveat of undecided voters.

 

I'm hoping this'll be the first election night in many years that will go better than I expected. Mainly the Tories winning their lowest number of seats in their 200+ year history... *_*

 

2017?

2017?

 

Oh I totally forgot the shitshow that was the 2017 election when Theresa May tried to get a larger majority to get Brexit done only to end up with a smaller majority. :lol: I think the succession of Bojo, Lettuce & Rishi mad me forget about Theresa. Plus the hurt from the 2019 election still runs deep. I remember the twitter rumours of labour doing better than expected only to see the final results... :snif:

 

 

https://x.com/techneUK/status/1793911182337753166?r

 

First TechneUK poll conducted partially after the announcement has the Conservatives at just 19%. Added Electoral Calculus seat projections in brackets as a bit of fun.

 

Labour - 45 (519)

Conservatives - 19 (34)

Lib Dems - 12 (62)

Reform UK - 14 (0)

Green 5 (2)

SNP 2 (12)

Others 3 (5)

 

https://x.com/techneUK/status/1793911182337753166?r

Edited May 24, 20241 yr by DoBelieveTheHype

https://x.com/techneUK/status/1793911182337753166?r

 

First TechneUK poll conducted partially after the announcement has the Conservatives at just 19%. Added Electoral Calculus seat projections in brackets as a bit of fun.

 

Labour - 45 (519)

Conservatives - 19 (34)

Lib Dems - 12 (62)

Reform UK - 14 (0)

Green 5 (2)

SNP 2 (12)

Others 5

 

https://x.com/techneUK/status/1793911182337753166?r

 

519 for Labour? :o that sounds too good to be true :lol:

I’d say it is lol!

I'm hoping Yougov will do another MRP poll. They're usually a fairly good indicator. The most recent one they did in March showed Labour with 403 seats on 41% of the vote.

https://www.survation.com/survations-first-...ampaign-period/

 

First poll of the campaign for Survation out:

 

Conservative - 24%

Labour - 47%

Lib Dems - 11%

SNP - 3%

Greens - 3%

Reform - 8%

Others - 4%

Edited May 28, 20241 yr by DoBelieveTheHype

@1795485183073775620

@1795479903682310584

@1795485183073775620

 

Not Reform coming for third. :mellow:

Only % wise seat wise they’ll be lucky to get 1 seat

Only % wise seat wise they’ll be lucky to get 1 seat

 

Still, I hope it’s not a continuous pattern. :lol:

YouGov's poll for Sky News now has Labour with a 27% lead. Fieldwork after the National Service announcement.

 

Labour - 47%

Conservatives - 20%

Reform - 12%

Lib Dem - 9%

Green - 7%

 

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-extends-l...y-news-13144620

 

Plugged into Electoral Calculus this would make the Lib Dems the official opposition.

Edited May 29, 20241 yr by DoBelieveTheHype

@1795749060621816020

I won’t get my hopes up but :cheeseblock:

Labour lead over the Tories

 

27 YouGov

26 Techne

25 WeThink

23 Survation

23 Redfield & Wilton

22 Deltapoll

17 More in Common

14 Opinium

12 JL Partner

 

 

We should see a YouGov MRP poll sometime in the next few weeks which will give us a bigger sample size/more accurate polling (I believe their last one wasn't too far off the election result).

 

Hoping Labour continue their campaign without too many hiccups and the conservatives continue to come up with not very well thought out policies.

 

 

Opsurvation is ALWAYS rigjt

 

The JL Partner poll got a LOT of right wing and bbtory press though

Savanata has a lower Labour lead - but no real change. Honestly feels more realistic than other polls.

 

https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1795885318937170138

 

Lab 44%

Con 27%

LD 10%

Ref 8%

Grn 4%

SNP 3%

Unsurprising the Torygraph has a lower Labour lead :D

 

Saying that I wouldn't be surprised that the Tories are more popular than the polls are saying.

Edited May 30, 20241 yr by ElectroBoy