As much as I'd love to see these polls coming true, the Conservatives on just 64 seats (or even less than 100) just doesn't seem plausible at all.

As much as I'd love to see these polls coming true, the Conservatives on just 64 seats (or even less than 100) just doesn't seem plausible at all.

 

It also has the green party at 3 seats. Amazing if true, but I have no clue where their 3rd seat will come from?

It also has the green party at 3 seats. Amazing if true, but I have no clue where their 3rd seat will come from?

 

Brighton, Bristol Central and Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire are the ones they've got down as possible wins as per this article.

As much as I'd love to see these polls coming true, the Conservatives on just 64 seats (or even less than 100) just doesn't seem plausible at all.

 

At this point I think the Tories getting over 100 seats would be a surprise. It’s hard to see where they would be. London, no. Scotland, no. Wales? No. The red wall has gone back to labour, the north east mostly has too. There isn’t that many places they even have a decent chance of winning. Certainly 170 within potential possibility and they’ll probably lose half of those

I'm like 60% sure on Waveney Valley coming in for the Greens now. Unusual seat with no real history for the other progressive parties to argue for, perfectly placed for rural conservative-green switchers, in the most fertile area of the country for Reform-Con vote splitting, and a Green campaigning machine that can focus there.

 

Haven't looked into it but I suspect North Herefordshire is similar but just a different region of the country.

 

For standard Con-Lab rural seats like say, Derbyshire Dales, Newark or South Northamptonshire, to pick a few big ones that might well go Labour, you have Reform splitting, but also indications that voters there would have left the Conservatives anyway even if Reform wasn't standing (though it occurring is definitely going to lose them a few safe seats they'd have otherwise held onto). No fear of Labour plus a desire for something different plus their normal voters means they'll be the only ones left standing as these polls are saying.

@1808433551148265709

That last minute Labour to Reform swing is something that we need to take seriously.

@1808204833171857896

@1808502062713389236

@1808514495238578318

🚨🚨🚨Final yougov MRP

 

@1808531046377426999

 

They give the Tories pretty much double what Survation did, it’ll be interesting to see which of the two were correct.

 

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/4995...lection-victory

 

MRP lower and upper seat estimates are as follows:

 

Labour: 391-466

Conservative: 78-129

Lib Dem: 57-87

SNP: 8-34

Reform UK: 0-14

Plaid: 1-4

Green: 1-4

 

Fieldwork: 19 June - 2 July

 

 

wrong thread

Edited July 3, 2024Jul 3 by DoBelieveTheHype

I find Savanta to be sketchy. They’ve been overplaying the Tories the whole election and their final poll goes completely the opposite. It’s like they were designed to inflate Tory numbers now want to ‘get it right’ when people look at final polls and see who was closest https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1808562262812082275?s=46

I'm starting to think Tories will be on 78 -92.

I hope tactical voting is in full swing tomorrow. We have a decent chance of the Lib Dems becoming the 2nd biggest party and the opposition!

 

Also surprised to see some of the MRP polls with decent ranges for the Greens. I know it may not sound like much, but the fact they could be in contention of 4-6 seats if the vote is in their favour is quite amazing - hope it does surprise and they end up with 3+ MPs.

These guys came closest in 2019 so worth paying attention to:

 

@1808785084054454560

These guys came closest in 2019 so worth paying attention to:

 

@1808785084054454560

 

I can see the Tories probably performing better than expected (as per the above poll). With a lot of the 'don't knows' now translating to 'i'll stick with the Tories...'

 

I'd love to be wrong and for the LD to be official opposition...

Edited July 4, 2024Jul 4 by ElectroBoy