@1682298102974144512

Not really enough outer London seats with concerns about ULEZ to win a general election. Perhaps not great for the long term as it means Conservatives might hit on anti-green policies where it hits voters' pockets as a strategy but it's also very niche overall.

 

Agreed Rooney, Labour getting a knock to show they can't be assured of winning every Tory-Labour marginal on current polling is pretty healthy for the long run honestly. And then on the flipside Sunak's trying to insist everything is fine while forecasters are still leading with the headlines that it's the Tories in the worst trouble.

 

Definitely a think moment for the Labour team. The Selby result gives the campaign good credit, but will be interesting to see how Starmer and his team use the Uxbridge result. Personally I'm of the opinion, this was a local issue and people are broadly supporting of green policies, just not at ones that incur a larger cost to themselves. But the Starmer manifesto does seem to have Green Industry at the heart of investment, so one to monitor here.

 

Personally with a lot of these green policies, they're great, but often they create 3-4 new problems without addressing current problems fully.

Starmer wastes no time throwing Khan under a bus re ULEZ asking him to "reflect" on it.

ULEZ was, of course, introduced by the previous mayor - a bloke called Boris Johnson. The expansion to places such as Uxbridge was forced on Sadiq Khan as part of the funding settlement with the Dept of transport. The fact that the Tories' dishonest campaign in Uxbridge worked will only encourage them to indulge in more of the same in the general election.

Amazing results in both Selby and Ainsty, as well as Somerton and Frome! Hopefully we'll see a similar collapse in Tory support in future by-elections (of which Mid-Bedfordshire should be coming up at some point this autumn..)

 

Slightly frustrating to see Labour come within 2% of taking Uxbridge and South Ruislip but I think it should be taken into consideration that the seat didn't even go Labour in 1997, and there was as Suedehead says above, some pretty disingenuous campaigning by the Tories on ULEZ. Even more frustrating and sad (but not surprising) to see Starmer bow to this pressure, I'm hoping Khan tells him where to go because delaying the introduction of the scheme seems a stupid idea as that will just merely delay the protest vote to make it even more of an issue come the GE or London Mayoral election.

 

But we have at least some divine intervention on this issue...

 

@1683107597249912834

I agree, imo the London or Manchester mayors will be the next Labour leaders!

There’s to be a by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West after the recall petition to unseat ex-SNP Margaret Ferrier was successful. I expect this will be a Labour vs SNP dogfight, with Labour coming up trumps.

Let’s hope anyone with more than two children votes snp!

I'm failing to see why Scotland which is very pro-EU would vote for Labour who have ruled out joining the Customs Union/Single Market or indeed diverging much from this current Tory Government on anything really.

I agree but you always have to add the National question into any discussion about Scotland these days so if the tories are floundering the pro union vote will have to go somewhere.

Dorries has finally got around to resigning.

And what a resignation it was!

 

Is that a blue wall or Labour in with a chance by election?

Mixed bag I think. It's a safe enough Conservative seat but with enough Labour and Liberal Democrat voters that neither party will want to write it off.

 

Unless there's really no appetite for Conservatives there specifically because of Dorries' faffing about, I think it'll end up being a 3-way race now there's no other by-elections to distract either the Liberal or Labour party machines with possibly a Tory getting themselves home.

And what a resignation it was!

 

Is that a blue wall or Labour in with a chance by election?

Hard to tell. The bookies make the Lib Dems favourites with Labour third favourites, but Labour think they can win it. There is still a risk that the Tories could win because of a split in the opposition vote. If the Lib Dems are genuinely clearly ahead, I hope Labour will scale down their campaign even if their public message remains that they are in it to win. Given the distance between Mid Beds and Rutherglen & Hamilton West, I don't think it will make much difference if they are held on the same day. Not many Labour campaigners will face a genuine choice between the two. It is, however, fair to assume that very few Lib Dem campaigners will be heading for Scotland.

And what a resignation it was!

 

Is that a blue wall or Labour in with a chance by election?

 

I think polling suggests that Labour are most likely to take the seat (if the Tories lose it)

 

@1675447694905450496

 

I mean, there was a whole lot of nonsense in that letter. However, there was a lot of stuff that I really agreed with, especially when she went in hard at Rishi and the Government. If that doesn't end up on massive billboards come the next GE then Labour are missing a massive trick..

 

Since you took office a year ago, the country is run by a zombie Parliament where nothing meaningful has happened. What exactly has been done or have you achieved? You hold the office of prime minister unelected, without a single vote, not even from your own MPs. You have no mandate from the people and the government is adrift. You have squandered the goodwill of the nation, for what?

 

There has been no budget, no new fiscal measures, no debate, there is no plan. Such statements take the British public for fools. The decline in the price of commodities such as oil and gas, the eased pressure on the supply of wheat and the increase in interest rates by the Bank of England are what has taken the heat out of the economy and reduced inflation. For you to personally claim credit for this was disingenuous at the very least.

 

Your actions have left some 200 or more of my MP colleagues to face an electoral tsunami and the loss of their livelihoods, because in your impatience to become prime minister you put your personal ambition above the stability of the country and our economy. Bewildered, we look in vain for the grand political vision for the people of this great country to hold on to, that would make all this disruption and subsequent inertia worthwhile, and we find absolutely nothing.

 

I will kind of miss her chaotic camp character and numerous gaffes, but she was completely unfit to be an MP, let alone a member of the Cabinet nor in the House of Lords!

I think polling suggests that Labour are most likely to take the seat (if the Tories lose it)

 

@1675447694905450496

 

I mean, there was a whole lot of nonsense in that letter. However, there was a lot of stuff that I really agreed with, especially when she went in hard at Rishi and the Government. If that doesn't end up on massive billboards come the next GE then Labour are missing a massive trick..

I will kind of miss her chaotic camp character and numerous gaffes, but she was completely unfit to be an MP, let alone a member of the Cabinet nor in the House of Lords!

That poll is about seven weeks old. From what I can tell, the Lib Dems have been campaigning harder than Labour. The bookies generally know what they are doing. They wouldn't be offering odds of 4/1 for Labour with Lib Dems odds on if they thought Labour were going to win.

Would that be the same bookies that had Remain 1/4, and Brexit 3/1 on 23 June 2016?

 

Private polling still seems to support it anyway..

 

@1695876424488321146

Would that be the same bookies that had Remain 1/4, and Brexit 3/1 on 23 June 2016?

 

Private polling still seems to support it anyway..

 

@1695876424488321146

Overall, bookies tend to get it right. They wouldn't remain in business otherwise.

Useless Lib Dems won't win

If the Lib Dems do end up beating Labour (whether or not the Tories scrape a victory or lose) that would be quite a blow for Starmer as the area is not one the Lib Dems do well in generally plus they got just over half the Labour vote in 2019!

Useless Lib Dems won't win

They've gained more seats in byelections than any other party in this parliament.