Russia will claim fake/accidentally but it's provocation since they're losing. I guess how soon do NATO act. Now?

This is worrying, but I'm seeing a lot of "unconfirmed" claims from news sources. I hope it didn't happen and NATO act safely/appropriately....

Could this be, the beginning of WW3? I'm praying to god no but, they not just hit NATO land but they killed Citizens of a NATO country. Scum of the earth

Polish foreign ministry have summoned the Russian ambassador after a „Russian made missile“ fell on polish territory. The word made doing a lot of heavy lifting there

I want to say that an errant missile won't be the cause of a major escalation in the conflict. However I expect a strong response from NATO nevertheless, just not one that leads to more death.

I find it hard to believe this is anything but Russian military incompetence.

 

Russia has nothing to gain by provoking NATO as they are well aware that they could decimate the Russian military threat within a couple of days if they wanted to. It would be the most ludicrous example of brinkmanship ever.

 

The idea of Ukraine firing them in order to draw NATO in actually has an element of logic to it, but it would be so ridiculous to think that it couldn't be traced back to them, and therefore destroy all their support from NATO, that it makes the idea seem equally beyond likelihood.

 

 

Given Russia's now evident military capabilities, Occam's Razor suggests ineptitude more than intent

The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Putin, accusing him of being responsible for war crimes.

 

It sounds big and significant, but I'm not sure what it'll actually amount to if anything?

The Russians, like the Americans and the Ukrainians, are not actually signatories to the Treaty of Rome that created by the ICC and so are not bound by it. Ie the warrant will have no effect on him within Russia

 

 

 

HOWEVER, a warrant from the ICC is a big f***ing deal and if he steps foot in any county that is a signatory, they are obligated to arrest him (as I understand it) and transfer him directly to The Hague. Alas, at the moment he joins Tony Blair and George W Bush on the list of war criminals with a windowless box reserved but sadly not yet occupied

@1665942644432728066

 

There is reasonable evidence (the Americans say that they have compelling evidence and want to get it declassified) to suggest that the Russian state is directly responsible for the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam (which provides water to Crimea and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant), a completely reckless act that has flooded large areas, displaced large numbers of the public and is drowning many animals.

 

This is likely to have been done to disrupt Ukraine's counteroffensive and looks increasingly like the desperate actions of a state that is now resigned to losing a horrific war that it started.

Ir didn't even need to do this. It is now winning the war. Ukraine has no foreard momentum and cannot do anything about Russia's defenxes. And even if it COULD, the closer it gets to Russian borders and their air control, the worse it is. This was obviously a ploy to stop Ukrsine getting even an inch of territory back.

Russia is not winnng the war. Neither are they losing it.

 

Their military exists in a fragile state bordering on collapse both logistically and tactically but they are entrenched and with this attack they will be able to hold their ground long enough to wear down Ukraine's offensive and cede the least territory possible.

 

The destruction of the dam is both an unwanted distraction and a new, unexpected obstacle for Ukraine. If Ukraine have any hope of ending the war soon they need to turn the Russian people against Putin or a mobile and maneouvrable assault that can encircle and capture large number of Russian troops. A statitc war of attrition will see them drained of manpower and eventually western support, as they don't have the resources Russia has there.

 

Tactically its a strong Russian move to derail or stall the Ukrainian offensive.

 

But it is by any measure a war crime.

The lines being so static for a long while is just indicative of no quick finish to the war. However I feel like the dam blown will force Ukraine to retreat from the now flooded Kherson and at least disrupt any plans they have of taking the south back.

 

Some fighting across the Russian border as well, recently, not a whole lot but some. Russians are just continually being the worst aggressors in this, and they STILL have people ready to jump in in their defence.

If Ukraine have any hope of ending the war soon they need to turn the Russian people against Putin or a mobile and maneouvrable assault that can encircle and capture large number of Russian troops. A statitc war of attrition will see them drained of manpower and eventually western support, as they don't have the resources Russia has there.

 

Exactly, and they are being pressured into costly and intensive counterattacks. Ukraine does not have the manpower that Russia has, and its economy and manufacturing base have been destroyed. Russia has a much larger population, and it still has the means of producing and buying, weaponry, particularly from Iran. Iran is now supplying all the wrapons Russia needs, testing its equipment vs Nato stocks, and the West cannot interrupt the flow of these armaments, either.

 

I see no way for Ukraine to win this way, except via encirclement like you said. I thought they were doing that with Bakhmut, but we'll see. Perhaps that is why they are now reiving the Russian border regions and making small incursions, in order to forment enough internal conflict in Russia that it has to withdraw large psrts of its army, or ends up with Putin losing power.

 

My prediction is there will either be a VERY prortracted war, or a settlement, with Crimea and the Donbas being ceded to Russia, in return for Ukrsine getting investment and EU and Nato membership. The third possibility is the incursions and losses rattle the Russian leadership so much that Putin loses power, and another president withdraws the troops.

 

R.e the dam: a war crime that completek

Ly arrests any Ukrainian counter-movements before they even begin. Massive ecological damage, too.

I'm seeing loads of reports of the Wagner Group engaging in actions against the Russian Army following Progozhin's statement. Is this all nonsense or some form of coup?

Reports that Wagner are headed to Moscow and that the Ukrainian Army have launched a major offensive around Bakhmut in response.

Disinformation.

Maybe, but there's an explosion of footage popping up purportedly of military escalation in Moscow. Can't verify though

This will all be for the home audience in Russia, if it is including Moscow. I can't tell what Wagner and Putin want sith this propaganda though... It'll become clearer over the next few days/ hours. Wagner is Putin's propaganda mouthpiece. Well, one of them.

 

Perhaps... this xould be the precursor to an "accident" at the nuclesr plant?? They can claim some MOD rebels did it...

Very tough to tell what is actually happening on the ground, but at the least it seems that some troops not aligned with the Russian state are in Rostov and Progozhin is effectively now an enemy of the state.

 

Will be very interesting to watch further but I'm not expecting to know what's actually going down there for a long time. Though those reports about Moscow are juicy if true (but I'm being slow to trust most of what's going down).

Woke up this morning to see a mini coup going off in Russia. Didn’t have that on my bingo card. Though I’m not in the best part of the world to be gleefully laughing at the implosion of Russia given I’m sat right on its borders

 

 

From what I can gather Rostov is now controlled by Wagner, Moscow is being patrolled by the main military, the M4 that links the two has been blockaded somewhere in between, Putin has admitted that it’s kicked off but not named names, and Wagner has started countering the offical propaganda on the justification for the illegal invasion war „special military operation“