March 2Mar 2 On 01/03/2025 at 12:06, J00prstar said:Surely Putin has to die sometime soon? He's not a young guyNot soon enough, that's for sure!
March 3Mar 3 I'm not sure Putin dying will make things any better quickly. The immediate successor would officially be the increasingly hostile and hawkish Medvedev, who seems very keen on battlefield nuclear usage. With elections supposedly to follow, the other likely candidates are Putin's aide, Nikolai Patrushev and Head of the FSB, Alexander Bortnikov.None are likely to be friendlier to Ukraine or the West. Best case scenario would be Armed Forces Chief, Valery Gerasimov who might be more moderate and could be reasoned with but the inevitable power vacuum could be very dangerous.
March 4Mar 4 2 hours ago, Steve201 said:Does US aid mean military spending?Well yeah it’s military aid. The US seems to be heavily pushing for Zelenskyy to go.
March 4Mar 4 Europe saw this coming. But clearly they are not quite ready to support yet without America’s backing.I am just not really sure the Trump administration really get it. There’s a play to the domestic audience here, but everything is so black and white to the MAGA movement that they can’t even begin to understand grey areas.
March 4Mar 4 1 hour ago, Rooney said:Europe saw this coming. But clearly they are not quite ready to support yet without America’s backing.I am just not really sure the Trump administration really get it. There’s a play to the domestic audience here, but everything is so black and white to the MAGA movement that they can’t even begin to understand grey areas.I could be wrong but the European stuff seems like bravado and performative. Without the US it really all falls down. It’s more like everybody is appealing to Trump’s greed rather than saying this guy is unreliable let’s do it without him.Zelenskyy just released an interesting statement."Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be," he writes in a post on X."It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right."He also now says he wants peace as soon as possible in a tone that is a little different than previously.I think this is close to being over and the resolution won’t be liked by many. Russia are basically refusing to give up almost any land. Ukraine are basically being forced into accepting a deal just so it doesn’t get worse. The US think their stake in minerals is a good security guarantee. Highly absurd really. Ultimately if Zelenskyy’s allies such as Lindsey Graham were saying he should go then he was in an impossible situation with the US. He either resigned or took a bad deal. Looks like he’s going to take a bad deal. Edited March 4Mar 4 by SotaLiam
March 4Mar 4 34 minutes ago, SotaLiam said:I could be wrong but the European stuff seems like bravado and performative. Without the US it really all falls down. It’s more like everybody is appealing to Trump’s greed rather than saying this guy is unreliable let’s do it without him.Zelenskyy just released an interesting statement.He also now says he wants peace as soon as possible in a tone that is a little different than previously.I think this is close to being over and the resolution won’t be liked by many. Russia are basically refusing to give up almost any land. Ukraine are basically being forced into accepting a deal just so it doesn’t get worse. The US think their stake in minerals is a good security guarantee. Highly absurd really. Ultimately if Zelenskyy’s allies such as Lindsey Graham were saying he should go then he was in an impossible situation with the US. He either resigned or took a bad deal. Looks like he’s going to take a bad deal.In the short term it falls down without the US, but longer term I am not sure. The US probably thinks it does as it has such a high opinion of itself but a joint European army would do fine, but it’s clear we’re a bit behind that.Who knows what’s behind the deal? Zelensky was going to sign it on Friday until things turned sour. I also think Zelensky will have taken advice from the European summit. The wording is very careful. My understanding is this isn’t actually a peace deal, it’s a mineral deal which then allows peace talks to happen. My current view of the situation is the US have washed their hands of it, but signing a mineral’s deal keeps the aid flowing and buys time for Ukraine and Europe. Peace deals take ages. It’s cowardly behaviour from the US, probably a short term win for them (although they’re kidding themselves on this minerals deal) but longer term I’m not sure how isolating themselves from their allies helps.
March 4Mar 4 3 hours ago, SotaLiam said:I could be wrong but the European stuff seems like bravado and performative. Without the US it really all falls down. It’s more like everybody is appealing to Trump’s greed rather than saying this guy is unreliable let’s do it without him.Zelenskyy just released an interesting statement.He also now says he wants peace as soon as possible in a tone that is a little different than previously.I think this is close to being over and the resolution won’t be liked by many. Russia are basically refusing to give up almost any land. Ukraine are basically being forced into accepting a deal just so it doesn’t get worse. The US think their stake in minerals is a good security guarantee. Highly absurd really. Ultimately if Zelenskyy’s allies such as Lindsey Graham were saying he should go then he was in an impossible situation with the US. He either resigned or took a bad deal. Looks like he’s going to take a bad deal.Eh... no. I think it's still important for him to continue trying to rescue the diplomatic situation with the US, even if the Trump administration is a compromised extension of the Kremlin now, and he's calling it regrettable, not apologising. He will still have the backing of all the European countries going into peace negotiations. The point of last week's huge foreign policy show has been entirely to ensure that Ukraine doesn't end up being strongarmed into a """peace""" deal that the US and Russia decide without Ukraine - and Europe's backing will, if not enough to completely fill the gap left by the US, be enough to ensure that doesn't happen as they will necessarily have involvement in the peace talks now.The suspension of military aid is of course a push against that in the opposite way, but even now Zelenskyy will still insist on security guarantees at a bare minimum. I don't think this is over by a long way.
March 5Mar 5 I see this going the way Finland did post WWII. Forced into neutrality for the forseeable future, Zelenskyy out with an incoming President who can deal with both sides as a neutral and Ukraine building up and army sufficient to make anyone looking to attack them, think several times over.
March 5Mar 5 26 minutes ago, Severin said:I see this going the way Finland did post WWII.Forced into neutrality for the forseeable future, Zelenskyy out with an incoming President who can deal with both sides as a neutral and Ukraine building up and army sufficient to make anyone looking to attack them, think several times over.Is that not the best result given the current state of events?
March 5Mar 5 10 hours ago, SotaLiam said:Is that not the best result given the current state of events?No the best result is Russia getting the hell out of Ukraine. Edited March 5Mar 5 by Spiceboy
March 11Mar 11 Interesting development the US has restored all intelligence sharing with Ukraine and have now agreed a 30 day ceasefire with Ukraine. Ukraine also managed to attack Moscow yesterday. So now it’s all up Russia whether they agree to it. They said previously they would not but haven’t responded at all so far. I think it would be a good first step
March 12Mar 12 3 hours ago, Liam S said:Interesting development the US has restored all intelligence sharing with Ukraine and have now agreed a 30 day ceasefire with Ukraine. Ukraine also managed to attack Moscow yesterday. So now it’s all up Russia whether they agree to it. They said previously they would not but haven’t responded at all so far.I think it would be a good first stepGuess we'll see the test of Trump now. Russia don't want a ceasefire. Trump would stamp his feet with most people, so interesting to see what he does now if Russia don't fold.
March 12Mar 12 Yeh the balls in Putins court now so interesting to see Trumps reaction. But we don’t know what Rubio has conceded as a ceasefire - does Ukraine become demilitarised, do they give Donetsk and Kharkiv over to Russia, will Ukraine be allowed to have a foreign policy(if not they aren’t a nation).
March 12Mar 12 5 hours ago, Steve201 said:Yeh the balls in Putins court now so interesting to see Trumps reaction. But we don’t know what Rubio has conceded as a ceasefire - does Ukraine become demilitarised, do they give Donetsk and Kharkiv over to Russia, will Ukraine be allowed to have a foreign policy(if not they aren’t a nation).A cessefire is a ceasefire. It is not a peace deal with concessions.
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