Any last minute predictions? B-)

I’m still sticking with #2 my estimation was 10-15k opening week. It may be lower 6-10k, but I’m sticking with my answer 😆

I really dont see it selling anything less than 10k.

21-40,

2000-2999 sales I think.

21-40,

2000-2999 sales I think.

 

You think it's going to do worse and sell less than Sugababes One Touch re-release?

Top 10 hopefully.

You think it's going to do worse and sell less than Sugababes One Touch re-release?

 

Hmm yeah forgot Sugababes managed top 20. Maybe I’ve underestimated, but I feel like I’ve seen more Sugababes on social media than Spice Girls. I still think top 15 highest

I find this really unpredictable.

 

There's so many formats, and on paper it should translate into plentiful sales. But it doesn't seem that the UK fanbase (those who are into buying Spice Girls releases) is a particularly large number of people. I don't feel like there's been much specific media hype about this re-release, so will the casuals be buying?

 

I hope it does well enough to be Top 10, but at the same time I wouldn't be completely surprised if it performs in an underwhelming way. Hopefully I'll be pleasantly surprised!

I think it will just about get into the Top10. At this stage, with the lack of promo from the girls themselves, I dont see it selling over 10,000 at all. Definitely not in the first week.

 

Which is a bummer, as it seems quite forgotten. Lets see what the week brings though. The social media post today was good, but yet again, just the same old same old... I guess the main attractive items for the general public/casual fans would be the picture disk and the CD but those are soo expensive... I don't know if it will track much beyond the very limited buying fanbase they have in the UK.

 

Praying that *something* will be done.

HMV should be stocking all the vinyls and CD release week in stores. They will have a limited amount of the individual vinyls and plenty of the Zoetrope and CD.

 

Formats that will count towards its sales release week -

 

Zoetrope vinyl

Posh vinyl

Scary vinyl

Ginger vinyl

Sporty vinyl

Baby vinyl

Black vinyl

White vinyl

Deluxe CD

Regular CD

Posh cassette

Scary cassette

Baby cassette

Sporty cassette

Ginger cassette

Downloads (deluxe and regular)

Streaming

 

It does around 300 sales weekly as of now thanks mainly to streams, which you would hope would be up considerably release week. Under 6k made top 10 this week just gone so it would need I'd say about 5.5k extra sales than normal to make top 10.

I think 8k and between #11-#15

I think 8k and between #11-#15

This would be very unfortunate considering that 8k is enough to be Top 5 this week! (#4 sold 8,332, #5 sold 7,926).

 

So far this year, the average sales needed to make it to #10 is 4,231. The highest #10 sales being 7,001 (which is an anomaly - the second highest is just 5,685) and the lowest is 3,474.

 

 

Averages for all the Top 10 positions in 2021:

 

#1: 27,558

#2: 14,377

#3: 8,969

#4: 7,103

#5: 6,234

#6: 5,544

#7: 5,077

#8: 4,722

#9: 4,498

#10: 4,231

 

 

I mean I'm probably going to jinx it, but I imagine if it sells 6k+ then it's likely it'll manage Top 10. My concern is that it'll underwhelm and do quite a bit less... but hopefully I'm just being pessimistic.

This would be very unfortunate considering that 8k is enough to be Top 5 this week! (#4 sold 8,332, #5 sold 7,926).

 

So far this year, the average sales needed to make it to #10 is 4,231. The highest #10 sales being 7,001 (which is an anomaly - the second highest is just 5,685) and the lowest is 3,474.

Averages for all the Top 10 positions in 2021:

 

#1: 27,558

#2: 14,377

#3: 8,969

#4: 7,103

#5: 6,234

#6: 5,544

#7: 5,077

#8: 4,722

#9: 4,498

#10: 4,231

I mean I'm probably going to jinx it, but I imagine if it sells 6k+ then it's likely it'll manage Top 10. My concern is that it'll underwhelm and do quite a bit less... but hopefully I'm just being pessimistic.

 

Thanks Jay.

 

I guess Im just a bit :huh: cos Sugababes did quite a bit worse than what was expected, and ended up at #18. Like, I know it is a very different group but the Spice Girls havent exactly set the charts alight either as a group or as solo for decades, so it is worrying at least.

 

Specially when there is like no promo and this is not a new album...

 

One Touch was never a hit album to begin with. There isn't a generation that grew up with it as their 1st cd or cassette. I actually think #18 for what was a bit of a flop album to begin with was a decent effort. Again multiple formats helped it greatly.

Yeah didn’t one touch outpeak itself on the rerelease? It didn’t initially go top 20 did it?

Interesting looking g back on the votes now that we know the outcome.

Well done to the 3 voters of #5, and the 3 voters of 7,000-7,999!

 

I was one position off with my prediction of #4 (it was sooo close to achieving that!) but I definitely overpredicted the sales, hoping for 10,000-14,999!

I think these predictions show that a lot of people don't get how dire sales are in general on the album chart right now. Most people thought it would peak outside the top 10 yet also most people thought it would sell 10-15k which is enough most weeks for top 3 if not #1 on slow weeks.