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How big do you think 30’s first week sales will be? 217 members have voted

  1. 1. How big do you think 30?s first week sales will be?

    • 50,000 to 99,999
      4
    • 100,000 to 149,999
      4
    • 150,000 to 199,999
      3
    • 200,000 to 249,999
      16
    • 250,000 to 299,999
      18
    • 300,000 to 349,999
      17
    • 350,000 to 399,999
      19
    • 400,000 to 449,999
      24
    • 450,000 to 499,999
      20
    • 500,000 to 549,999
      20
    • 500,000 to 599,999
      12
    • 600,000 to 649,999
      11
    • 650,000 to 699,999
      7
    • 700,000 to 749,999
      4
    • 750,000 to 799,999
      3
    • 800,000 to 849,999
      3
    • 850,000 to 899,999
      1
    • 900,000 to 949,999
      0
    • 950,000 to 999,999
      1
    • 1,000,000 or higher
      4

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I don't think Ed will beat 79k with this album but he could well get the 2nd highest streaming sales week behind himself (iirc there's quite a large gap between his record and 2nd place).

From what I can find the Top 5 currently stands at (unless I'm missing something):

 

1) Ed Sheeran - '÷' (1st week) (78,944)

2) Ed Sheeran - '÷' (2nd week) (58,280)

3) Ed Sheeran - 'No.6 Collaborations Project' (49,858)

4) Drake - 'Scorpion' (49,715)

5) Ariana Grande - 'thank u, next' (43,811)

 

I expect that by the end of the year we'll have Ed making his way to #2 between his other 2 albums with '=', then Adele blasting straight to #1 with '30'.

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Is there a debate to be had about changing the way album sales are counted in the streaming era. Or would that just be inflating sales?

 

The current system deflates sales by removing the most streamed track, which given in the old days hundreds of thousands would buy albums for that one song kind of explains the deflation in the final figures

Edited by chartfridays

But I actually think that's one of the very very few things the OCC got right

it's the album charts not the single charts, so it has to reflect the album doing well as a whole

not 1 song doing well, that should be reflected in the singles chart

 

and it' actually the top 2 songs that are excluded when calculating the average which is based on tracks 3-12

 

the solution is not including tracks 1 & 2 in the calculations thats already favouring the greatest hits or albums like Mabel that are like a compilation

the solution is counting the album streams properly, excluding idiotic counts from playlists (so Mabel would be gone) and counting only when you

properly stream the album, and then, giving it more weight... if you look at indie albums many are doing pretty well on streams, especially on week 2,

but that doesn't translate into higher album streams cos they don't have songs on playlists...

what drives album streams should be proper album streams not playlists like it's happening now

Yeh I agree if you counted the main single it would be like single sales as a lot will listen to the the single only!
I went for 350-400. I think she can do more than Ed, but the sales for albums are so low these days that I think she'll struggle to get anywhere near what she's managed before.

I think 30 will shoot straight to the top of that list of the Top 5 weekly streams for albums and possibly by a significant margin tbh. As someone else put it in another thread, the evidence so far is she has successfully made the transition from download to streaming era while maintaining her insane level of appeal. That sounds like the backdrop for a record breaker to me.

 

I wonder if both Ed and Adele will be like Coldplay with big preorder and then slow streams added?
I went for 350-400. I think she can do more than Ed, but the sales for albums are so low these days that I think she'll struggle to get anywhere near what she's managed before.

Plus, about 6 wks between album and single release.... the so-called pent up demand for an Adele record and the never ending promo may wane by the time the album is out. I'm not saying it won't be a huge seller, I just think we're overestimating its sales.

I wonder if both Ed and Adele will be like Coldplay with big preorder and then slow streams added?

 

Like Coldplay and like 99% of all other albums which have a physical release... :lol:

I wonder if both Ed and Adele will be like Coldplay with big preorder and then slow streams added?

Adele and Ed are much bigger than Coldplay in streaming, this band still opens with impressive sales because of their solid UK fan base.

Like Coldplay and like 99% of all other albums which have a physical release... :lol:

 

So will there be a huge slump in the second week?

So will there be a huge slump in the second week?

 

...like 99% of all other albums, yes :kink:

So will there be a huge slump in the second week?

 

Almost certainly but if you're starting off on an insane high as 30 will be then the second week slump will still produce a figure that is high compared to the rest of the market.

...like 99% of all other albums, yes :kink:

 

I’m really just interested to see where they fall to and what sales will be like post week 1 on the road up to Christmas.

 

I also want to see if I can get Bre to elaborate on his answers 😜

  • 3 weeks later...
I'll probably look stupid in 2 weeks but I can see her getting 400k plus she is a massive album seller but also can be a streaming giant which ABBA couldn't manage
ABBA had multiple formats though. I've voted 200,000 - 250,000

 

lol guys, are you for real?

 

I am going for 450k+

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