Where will 'Hold My Hand' debut and eventually peak on the official UK charts?

 

Vote in the poll and discuss below!

 

Let's see how close we are with these PRE-RELEASE predictions :o

Get your predictions out! It's a tough one because a mid-week release and then no idea how the film will do :rofl: Toughie to predict!

Debut: Top 20

 

Peak: Top 5

I'm not as confident! I don't think it can make the top 40 with such a short timeframe before the next chart. I think it'll eventually reach top 20 though and possibly stay for a short while if it gets playlist support.

Debut: top 40

Peak: top ten

 

I'm between pessimistic/mildly optimistic lol

The #41 track on the most recent chart had “9,537” combined sales. I feel like Gaga would’ve easily done that in three chart days had it been a Friday release but even with a midweek release I’ll say it’ll go top 40 this Friday (possibly top 30 but maybes between 31-40 for debut week). I think it’ll peak during the films impact though so it won’t peak for a while but I’m gonna say it’ll be a top ten peak!

 

Soundtrack Gaga I feel will have more of an impact outside of her core stan fanbase than what Chromatica era Gaga did so this might be a case of a longer chart run possibly if we’re comparing it to Stupid Love? We will see though. Wasn’t The Cure a midweek release and that went top 40 on release week (and the general public are here for her a lot more now than they were then).

 

What I’m torn on is when do I buy Hold my Hand? Do I buy tomorrow and help debut week or wait and buy it once the films out?

Edited May 2, 20223 yr by Jordanlee1402

Hmm maybe you could buy it twice from two different outlets? Tomorrow and later when the movie is out.

I'd hold off and get it when it has a full tracking week tbh!

Top 100

Top 5

I really hope in a month or so we can look back and say that the midweek release had no negative impact on its chart performance. It better not be a Born This Way single thing again! :drama:

I think it's different in the streaming era when it can actually get boost from playlisting on Friday.

Yeah that's true! Could it be added onto New Music Friday if it's had a midweek release? :unsure:

I think so!

Nice! Should get a nice boost on Friday then. I wonder if HHUK will support a soundtrack single :unsure:

I want my prediction added to the poll: not actually released

Omg yes that'd be quite a surprise turn

Ugh this is so hard to predict. Her soundtrack singles so far: Til it Happens to You did next to nothing, Shallow did next to everything. This could be anywhere in between that :lol:

Crunching the numbers, it'll need to sell around 10k to make the top 40 on Friday. It'll have 3 days to do that. We can assume it will have strong download sales right? Could get 2-3k downloads if it tops iTunes and gets a solid lead, which could well be enough to be #1 on sales this week.

 

That would leave 7-8k needed from streams. To do that in 3 days, it'd need to sell approximately at the rate of songs in the #16-20 region of the chart, so it'd need to maintain a top 25 position on Spotify all week with strong video streams too. Obviously a slower start on downloads would mean it'd need even more streams to overcome the deficit.

 

Not gonna lie, I think top 40's a tall order, but if she did manage it I'd be super impressed and that'd be a huge reassurance that she's doing VERY well, I can't remember the last midweek release to go top 40 immediately (possibly Lewis Capaldi's Before You Go?).

Thanks for that info Seph! Looking doubtful for a top 40 debut then but let's see how it holds up! Exciting regardless~

I think it'll debut top 100 this week. In terms of peak I guess it depends on the song. I went with a top 40 peak to be safe. But she'll likely end up top 20 at least if the song is decent!