May 5, 20232 yr Early point in the night with only about 5% of results in but modest Labour gains, slightly behind where they should be according to polls but roughly in line with what I predicted, Tories potentially down many hundreds of seats if this extrapolates out to the whole picture but their vote percentage share hasn't collapsed dramatically. Labour seemingly 2 votes away from taking back Hartlepool into control oof.
May 5, 20232 yr So there's going to be a lot of tactical voting which will cost the Tories dearly I hope! Interestingly Rehman Chisti (Tory MP for Gillingham) has bravely gone right out and said Suella Braverman's rhetoric is harming them and playing to the Far Right. Could be a very interesting couple of days!
May 5, 20232 yr Plymouth gain for Labour! nice, city that really should be solidly Labour based on its circumstances but has been a marginal for a long time.
May 5, 20232 yr Nice that the Tory tree killers there were voted out. Overall though (and I again expect with very minimal hype whatsoever for the Lib Dems to smash it out of the park tomorrow with some juicy results), these aren't brilliant for Labour considering how much of a shitshow the Tories are.
May 5, 20232 yr Nice that the Tory tree killers there were voted out. Overall though (and I again expect with very minimal hype whatsoever for the Lib Dems to smash it out of the park tomorrow with some juicy results), these aren't brilliant for Labour considering how much of a shitshow the Tories are. The Labour line on that is that they've concentrated improving the efficiency of their vote and they are moving forward in lots of key marginal areas, probably enough to unseat lots of vulnerable Tories, particularly those that were Tory gains in 2019. Plus this election is without Labour stronghold London and an area where they're currently expected to make lots of gains, Scotland. I do think Labour should be making more gains and am blaming Starmer's weaknesses and dishonesty in part for that (but also voter suppression) but it is gratifying to see Tories looking on track to lose 1,000 seats, whether those are to Greens or Lib Dems, I'll take it if it's where Labour couldn't win.
May 5, 20232 yr That sweet spot of the Tories losing in Remain areas and Labour gaining in pro-Brexit areas. I just hope it isn't so much of a collapse for the Tories that it threatens Sunak and leads to Bojo returning like a turd that won't flush. @1654349653742108675
May 5, 20232 yr I’d take Johnson back anytime! Rishi is an asset for the right imo, Labour polls well with young people but in the same group Sunak polls better than Starmer, that’s all you need to know!!
May 5, 20232 yr I think the Lib Dems will be the big winners here. Iz put it really well - the Tories will spin this as Labour not doing so well, but we are missing London & Scotland and there's way less tactical voting in the local elections, plus a way lower turnout.
May 5, 20232 yr Yep Johnson (who is actually more to the left than Sunak on some issues) would cause carnage in the party if returned but doubt he will there, he's lost his mojo (oh dear!) Do Lib Dems want to rejoin the EU nowadays, I've now lost track. That would go down well in the non-red wall seats in the General Election. Wish Labour and Lib Dems did some kind of agreement (unlike in 2019 people won't mind) - makes me nervous that they don't.
May 5, 20232 yr Author Will likely be making my own predictions closer to the time, but interesting questions in England will be how far will the Tories fall in an election where they control many of the district councils, how much of a bounce will Keir Starmer's Labour have, and having won its first new council seat in 3 decades, will the SDP make it a second in Leeds? A) They did, they won a 2nd seat in the Middleton Park area of Leeds, winning a seat from Labour.
May 5, 20232 yr Bizarre scenes in Broxtowe. In a multi-member ward, two Tories tied for the last seat. One of them was the leader of teh Tory group. They had to draw lots and the leader lost :rofl:
May 5, 20232 yr So less than 2/3 of the councils officially declared and Conservatives have a net LOSS of 29 councils. The War on Woke going Well isn't it? :kink:
May 5, 20232 yr They're losing control of councils across the country where I'd have never expected to see any colour but blue. Wealden, Runnymede, West Devon, East Staffordshire... It's never hard to find Conservatives in places like Devon and Sussex, except, now it is. (looks like the best the Lib Dems have ever done in Devon too) Results from Wealden District Council now confirmed. CON loss to NOC. Going in, 28 Conservative councillors, 7 Independents, 6 LibDems, 4 Green. Conservatives controlled the council with 33 of 45 councillors. Worth noting that some of the independents were elected as Conservatives before splitting away. Today - 9 Conservatives, 13 LibDems, 11 Green, 10 Independent, 2 Labour. lmao, Wealden's like the deepest of deep Tory Sussex they're on to nothing
May 5, 20232 yr The Greens have taken mid-Suffolk. First outright council majority for the Greens not just in the UK but in the entire Northern Hemisphere ! @1654483714053664769 When I spoke to John Curtice this week he said Labour needs at least a 10 point lead at this stage. They've managed 9.Labour are likely still just short of a working majority if this were to be tested at a GE. Jeremy Corbyn's casting vote Still in play lads. So less than 2/3 of the councils officially declared and Conservatives have a net LOSS of 29 councils. The War on Woke going Well isn't it? :kink: Sir John Curtice told me this week "If you look at the long term trends, anti-woke views are becoming less and less common... “[The Conservatives]are chasing a declining zeitgeist.. attitudes have shifted and they have shifted in a ‘woke’ direction.” *.*
May 5, 20232 yr They're losing control of councils across the country where I'd have never expected to see any colour but blue. Wealden, Runnymede, West Devon, East Staffordshire... It's never hard to find Conservatives in places like Devon and Sussex, except, now it is. (looks like the best the Lib Dems have ever done in Devon too) lmao, Wealden's like the deepest of deep Tory Sussex they're on to nothing Does the English south west not generally swing from Liberall to Tory depending on whether the tories are doing well nationalwide or not?
May 5, 20232 yr There are rumours that the Green leader of Brighton and Hove has lost his seat. Are they just organising the services poorly or is there something else?
May 5, 20232 yr The Lib Dems have taken Surrey Heath, home of Gove. I can remember a time when the Tories held every seat on that council. With Guildford likely to go Lib Dem and the party increasing its majority in Woking there is a real Band Of Gold in Surrey.
May 5, 20232 yr ^And it's happened! Gonna frame this on my wall, beautiful x Now all we need is annihilation in 2024 and we might just about get some solace from what they've turned the country into this past decade and a half. (My local one was sadly a Tory hold, but it's been this way for over a decade so x)
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