51 minutes ago, Rooney said:

The Tories just have an identity crisis, of course spurred on by Boris’ great purge. Reform are hoovering up the right and the Lib Dem’s are eating up the middle class. So either they lurch back to the Centre or go further to the Right.

If I were a Tory strategist I wouldn’t know what to do. They’re screwed unless reform implode

9 minutes ago, Liam Sota said:

If I were a Tory strategist I wouldn’t know what to do. They’re screwed unless reform implode

It’s a hard one. Reform will definitely implode at some point as there’s no way anyone can contain the Far Right elements and the love affair with certain influencers.

I don’t think they can move back to the Centre as they purged the Centrists in 2019!

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52251-who-would-be-the-best-prime-minister-may-2025?utm_source=website_article&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=52251

This continues to be a really interesting metric. That's actually an eight-point improvement for Starmer vs Farage since the last time I posted that poll when it was last run in February. It is quite a curiosity that despite approval ratings still being awful, if given the choice between PM Starmer or PM Farage, Starmer clearly wins with the British public right now.

that said there's also a metric here among 2024 Con voters of whom nearly a third would rather see Farage as PM than Badenoch oof,

That data is interesting but it’s hard to make sense of it. It feels a bit like Reform are the protest vote as people don’t actually think they will get in, but they don’t necessarily like Farage? Idk. Feels like this week was pitched for Farage, but I’m guessing with the Liverpool news they will change the timings of their “policy announcements”. Helps Labour I think. But yeah does basically show the Tories are toast.

Feels to me like Farage has a clear ceiling and that if there is a general election where he looks like having a serious chance of becoming PM, it's likely that people will vote for whoever looks most likely to beat him.

If the Conservatives can still exist as a force to take votes off of him that'll help Labour too, but paradoxically, if Conservatives are the main opposition and not Farage, then they have a better chance of beating Labour at the next one too. Interesting dynamic.

I’d imagine in 4 years the fickle electorate will be less annoyed with the tories and have forgotten their 14 years more so less likely to be far behind?

Be great if the right wing vote will be divided for the foreseeable for a change as it’s usually the other way round!

Yeah I think atm the right wing vote is basically just swarmed to Farage.

Everything the Tories did over the course of the last parliament is still too fresh for them to really gain any ground. I'm guessing over the next couple of years that will change. Badenoch will get ousted, Jenrick will probably replace her and probably get a bit of a bounce. But yeah the Right needs to be split for anything on the left (or more Centre) to be within with a chance.

Edited May 27May 27 by ElectroBoy

Don’t view that metric as too relevant. Davey and Badenoch ahead of Farage too. Left wing people tend to be a lot more biased and tribal really and maybe conservatives say don’t know between Farage and Starmer the snp/plaid/lib dems say Starmer over Farage. It’s the only way those polls make sense.

3 hours ago, ElectroBoy said:

Yeah I think atm the right wing vote is basically just swarmed to Farage.

Everything the Tories did over the course of the last parliament is still too fresh for them to really gain any ground. I'm guessing over the next couple of years that will change. Badenoch will get ousted, Jenrick will probably replace her and probably get a bit of a bounce. But yeah the Right needs to be split for anything on the left (or more Centre) to be within with a chance.

I mean actually, this poll is sorta showing there's a ceiling on how much of the 2024 Conservative vote, still a very right-wing subset, can go to Farage. Which is crucial for Reform's chances at a majority.

3 hours ago, Liam Sota said:

Don’t view that metric as too relevant. Davey and Badenoch ahead of Farage too. Left wing people tend to be a lot more biased and tribal really and maybe conservatives say don’t know between Farage and Starmer the snp/plaid/lib dems say Starmer over Farage. It’s the only way those polls make sense.

Why would that make it not relevant? I already went over the virtues of the metric in great detail literally the last time it was run so I won't repeat myself, but given that yes, the (current) Conservative voter breakdown on this poll is 28-Starmer-39-Farage-32-DK, and the current LDem breakdown is 81-Starmer-6-Farage-13-DK, why would that scenario not play out in hundreds of Labour defenses in a general election?

2010-2015, Labour always led Conservatives in the polls, but Miliband never beat Cameron on this question. It's also a good way of showing another side to approval ratings, I'm sure you view approval ratings and or VI as important, but approval ratings don't show polarisation of a figure, the strength of feeling, where it's almost certain that opinions on Farage are more polarised than they are of Starmer.

Also not that it's relevant to this poll's usefulness in any way but lol at decrying left wing people as biased when 87% of Reform 2024 voters still choose Farage.

21 minutes ago, Iz 🌟 said:

Why would that make it not relevant? I already went over the virtues of the metric in great detail literally the last time it was run so I won't repeat myself, but given that yes, the (current) Conservative voter breakdown on this poll is 28-Starmer-39-Farage-32-DK, and the current LDem breakdown is 81-Starmer-6-Farage-13-DK, why would that scenario not play out in hundreds of Labour defenses in a general election?

Because we have metrics for those already? There are party polls and favourability polls. They’re important metrics. They’re completely at odds with this stuff here. So if it’s explained in ways which make it irrelevant such as certain people answering in different ways there it’s just straw clutching.

There is no doubt Farage is despised by a lot of people and Mcsweeney and co are banking on when it’s a two horse race be reform people will go back to Labour to stop Farage that’s clearly the strategy and why they think they can get away with unpopular things constantly but this kind of polling isn’t general public it’s personalities. It’s like questionnaires where some people answer honestly and some say what they think they’re supposed to say. Would I say Badenoch or Farage would make a better prime minister? Nope I don’t know. I’d put don’t know. But right now I’d vote anyone over Starmer.

3 minutes ago, Liam Sota said:

Because we have metrics for those already? There are party polls and favourability polls. They’re important metrics. They’re completely at odds with this stuff here. So if it’s explained in ways which make it irrelevant such as certain people answering in different ways there it’s just straw clutching.

There is no doubt Farage is despised by a lot of people and Mcsweeney and co are banking on when it’s a two horse race be reform people will go back to Labour to stop Farage that’s clearly the strategy and why they think they can get away with unpopular things constantly but this kind of polling isn’t general public it’s personalities. It’s like questionnaires where some people answer honestly and some say what they think they’re supposed to say. Would I say Badenoch or Farage would make a better prime minister? Nope I don’t know. I’d put don’t know. But right now I’d vote anyone over Starmer.

? They're not completely at odds at all. This poll easily sits with the rest of the polling picture we currently have. Reform currently have the most numbers of voters in opinion polls, but most people prefer another party. This poll tells us that they would take Labour over Reform. Starmer is unfavourably viewed, but a decent enough proportion of those unfavourables do not think that any of the other options would be better. It reads more to me that you want to dismiss it (dismissing polls is generally a losing game, something I learned from the 2019 election) because it doesn't fit your narrative than that you genuinely can't see how it can fit or are genuinely entertaining the suggestion that people in a representative sample are en masse lying to pollsters.

Regardless of what you, personally, think (I myself would put DK between Starmer and Davey but would vote for anyone over Farage, to give a pointless personal counter to your personal anecdote), Labour still have a vote share that is relatively substantial, and enough of the rest would choose their leader to be PM over the far more polarising Reform leader. Easy.

44 minutes ago, Iz 🌟 said:

? They're not completely at odds at all. This poll easily sits with the rest of the polling picture we currently have. Reform currently have the most numbers of voters in opinion polls, but most people prefer another party. This poll tells us that they would take Labour over Reform. Starmer is unfavourably viewed, but a decent enough proportion of those unfavourables do not think that any of the other options would be better. It reads more to me that you want to dismiss it (dismissing polls is generally a losing game, something I learned from the 2019 election) because it doesn't fit your narrative than that you genuinely can't see how it can fit or are genuinely entertaining the suggestion that people in a representative sample are en masse lying to pollsters.

Regardless of what you, personally, think (I myself would put DK between Starmer and Davey but would vote for anyone over Farage, to give a pointless personal counter to your personal anecdote), Labour still have a vote share that is relatively substantial, and enough of the rest would choose their leader to be PM over the far more polarising Reform leader. Easy.

So you’re telling me someone votes in a poll that they’re voting Green definitely or Lib Dem definitely or Plaid definitely or SNP definitely they also say they don’t like Starmer and don’t think he’s doing a good job but because they’d choose Starmer over Farage THAT part is the relevant part? It just doesn’t make any real sense.

Davey is up 14% on Farage. Badenoch 4%. None of them are going close. If you ask someone who hates Trump would Trump or Hitler he worse and they say Hitler it’s not a win for Trump. Green voters who view Farage as a fascist thinking Davey or Starmer or anyone is better than Farage is a given but what’s the relevance? Maybe if we had the French system. All these polls said similar months ago and the results of the recent elections reflected the actual important metrics not this stuff.

Maybe you’re seeing something I’m not but if Starmer’s unfavourable are worse than Farage and reform are polling 5% better than Labour I’m not seeing how this matters at all

52 minutes ago, Liam Sota said:

So you’re telling me someone votes in a poll that they’re voting Green definitely or Lib Dem definitely or Plaid definitely or SNP definitely they also say they don’t like Starmer and don’t think he’s doing a good job but because they’d choose Starmer over Farage THAT part is the relevant part? It just doesn’t make any real sense.

Davey is up 14% on Farage. Badenoch 4%. None of them are going close. If you ask someone who hates Trump would Trump or Hitler he worse and they say Hitler it’s not a win for Trump. Green voters who view Farage as a fascist thinking Davey or Starmer or anyone is better than Farage is a given but what’s the relevance? Maybe if we had the French system. All these polls said similar months ago and the results of the recent elections reflected the actual important metrics not this stuff.

Maybe you’re seeing something I’m not but if Starmer’s unfavourable are worse than Farage and reform are polling 5% better than Labour I’m not seeing how this matters at all

Not necessarily, but there's a good chance voters like those exist in what will be Labour-Reform battlegrounds at the next general election, a type of election where we know voters, particularly less engaged voters who vote in generals but not locals, consider this question quite strongly. Obviously the other matchups won't matter in as many places but they are also useful baselines for seats that are a different kind of 2-way marginal. All dependent on individual party strength per seat of course but this is where elections are won and lost.

This is a valid part of the polling picture, it matters on balance as much as other single pieces, in its own context. Maybe it doesn't matter and people won't vote against Reform strongly enough to keep them from having a majority, but anti-votes and choosing vote effectiveness are so often a key part of elections especially FPTP ones; I find it silly to be so dismissive of what this tells us that favourability polls and voting intention do not, what voters might do when making more tactical choices relevant to the system they find themselves in.

So let’s just put it in context with today’s polling. Same company probably most of the same people polled.

So Labour recording their worst ever rating. Now 8 points behind reform. Tories up 3 now 4 above Lib Dem’s despite being behind in the last poll. 48% combined between Reform and Tory.

Now look at the H2H with Badenoch and Farage

Badenoch (29%) vs Farage (25%)

then add the fact yougov say this

2024 Tory voters are closely divided on whether they would prefer Nigel Farage or Kemi Badenoch as prime minister

Kemi Badenoch: 38%

Nigel Farage: 33%

So reform are polling at 29%

33% of Tory voters think Farage would be better than Badenoch

Yet in their H2H she is up 29-25

Do those numbers make sense to you? To me it just says too many people aren’t answering or saying don’t know for it to have any relevance. In a multi party system where the main ones are in the teens or 20’s it’s less relevant than ever as so many people answering aren’t voting either of those two anyway.

Yes, they make sense to me because I've read the data tables in detail and you haven't.

All the answers to your questions about that 'best PM' poll are in here: https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Copy_of_Internal_BestPM_250519_002.pdf

But anyway, these are 2024 Conservative voters, not those who are currently listing them as voting intention, so you're not comparing like with like. 60% of current Conservative voters, plus some from left-leaning parties, are what is contributing to Badenoch winning that H2H with Farage, it's not a poll of solely the right. It's relevant because in any FPTP election, votes can get squeezed and it's useful to see where those squeezes might go, if they're DKs, they might be undecided or just can't be squeezed away from their chosen party, which is fine, that's also useful info. Farage doesn't pick up much outside the Reform believers though, and incidentally his matchup with Starmer has the lowest percentage of DKs among all the matchups, people have largely made up their mind on that one. At the moment of course, things could all still change.

And then if you're going to combine Conservative and Reform on that latest poll, you might as well combine Labour, Lib Dem and Greens which adds up to 47%. I wouldn't, but you can easily see how a centrist leader comes out ahead in a 2-way race even when well behind a far-right leader when all parties are included. See the recent Romanian election for an example of how those sorts of numbers worked. Which, a Macron-esque strategy, grab votes from the far-left to the centre-right, even if both those immediate groups hate him, they hate him less than Reform, might be how Starmer wins another term.

also no, YouGov does not poll the same people all the time, come on. Read their methodology, they have millions of participants and each poll is a different nationally representative sample.

Welsh Parliament voting intention

The Reform drop with YouGov reads like polling noise but also tracks that Reform's current ceiling is somewhere just below 30. Opinium's poll today has them on 30.

The last month of polling being strong for Reform before settling back towards equilibrium after local results sorta tracks. Labour doing their best over the past few weeks to remove long-term polling weaknesses (WF change, grooming gangs report), plus largely neutrally or positively received actions (Spending Review, trade deals, Starmer in his favourable statesman environment at G7), their way of dampening the otherwise ideal Reform conditions, which aren't going away yet, the vibe and feeling is still very much 'fuck the government'.

The vibe certainly doesn't feel like merely 45% of Britain want to vote for right wing parties, although admittedly I am not actually in the UK. It's 10% higher than that here in France and yet we are not in our second consecutive summer of pogroms against ethnic minorities.

Wouldnt read much into it. Labour have handled some recent stuff better and they reversed the fuel payments. Probably gave them a boost. I think Labour handled the grooming gang stuff the last few days pretty good tbh I wouldn’t be surprised if that leads to a few reform types going back to Labour also in future polls. Reform’s ceiling is 40% in my opinion who knows if they’ll ever hit it