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  • Iz 🌟
    Iz 🌟

    Just because I've seen that 10th/16th safest seat number bandied about and it's wrong. Though they shouldn't be losing their 49th safest seat like this either.

  • Harve
    Harve

    One of the less Reform-friendly archetypal safe Tory seats. If Reform pick this up then the Conservatives's existence is in trouble (which I think we knew already).

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10 hours ago, Steve201 said:

So Reform is cutting through into Scotland as well then….

I seen an interesting article on Denmark the other day. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1mgkd93r4yo.amp

That’s basically what the SNP will have to do to stop reform if they don’t I’m pretty sure reform will become the biggest party in Scotland in the very near future. It’s always been a complete myth that Scotland is some progressive paradise. They just weren’t affected by big immigration and the anti-English sentiment was the biggest driver but now that’s no longer the case on both fronts so Scotland will be one to watch.

'look all the left party has to do to stop the anti-immigration far-right is to become the anti-immigration far-right'

Denmark's not even all that successful as an anti-migration case, it was never a big immigration target and the Social Democrats' success over there is more to do with the right being splintered. They're still facing a labour shortage and some of their policies are the inhumane and racist ones that pro-migration people warn about, 'parallel societies' is insanely alienating. Spain's model on the other hand as mentioned in that article is a much better way of solving migration I think, using migrants strategically to fill in labour gaps. But to keep it on Scotland, I'm not sure the SNP government can even tackle immigration that effectively as a devolved government.

I do agree however that the SNP's dominance in Scotland and the primary topic being nationalism vs unionism has hidden some less obvious divisions between the parties, mostly nationalist conservatives in the ranks of the SNP, that may now emerge under a different political dynamic with SNP fatigue in Holyrood. Reform did do well here and if replicated they'd be a big force in the Scottish government. Also offers an opportunity for Scottish Labour to tack left and attack the SNP from all sides, as they did here.

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