So Reform is cutting through into Scotland as well then….

10 hours ago, Steve201 said:

So Reform is cutting through into Scotland as well then….

I seen an interesting article on Denmark the other day. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1mgkd93r4yo.amp

That’s basically what the SNP will have to do to stop reform if they don’t I’m pretty sure reform will become the biggest party in Scotland in the very near future. It’s always been a complete myth that Scotland is some progressive paradise. They just weren’t affected by big immigration and the anti-English sentiment was the biggest driver but now that’s no longer the case on both fronts so Scotland will be one to watch.

'look all the left party has to do to stop the anti-immigration far-right is to become the anti-immigration far-right'

Denmark's not even all that successful as an anti-migration case, it was never a big immigration target and the Social Democrats' success over there is more to do with the right being splintered. They're still facing a labour shortage and some of their policies are the inhumane and racist ones that pro-migration people warn about, 'parallel societies' is insanely alienating. Spain's model on the other hand as mentioned in that article is a much better way of solving migration I think, using migrants strategically to fill in labour gaps. But to keep it on Scotland, I'm not sure the SNP government can even tackle immigration that effectively as a devolved government.

I do agree however that the SNP's dominance in Scotland and the primary topic being nationalism vs unionism has hidden some less obvious divisions between the parties, mostly nationalist conservatives in the ranks of the SNP, that may now emerge under a different political dynamic with SNP fatigue in Holyrood. Reform did do well here and if replicated they'd be a big force in the Scottish government. Also offers an opportunity for Scottish Labour to tack left and attack the SNP from all sides, as they did here.

A year after being stripped of the whip for sending offensive messages in a Whatsapp group, Andrew Gwynne has resigned as an MP, triggering a by-election in his Manchester based Gorton & Denton constituency. Although Labour won this seat with more than 50% of the votes, the current Nowcast predicts it will be a tighter contest:

Of course this doesn't take into account that this is a by-election and there's many factors that could influence the results. The biggest one being whether Andy Burnham will stand (if the NEC don't force an all-female shortlist on the party), as his popularity in Manchester is pretty high. If Labour are hoping that they'll be given a free run by the "stop Reform" alliance, the reinvigorated Greens may look at the above and think they may have a chance of taking the seat, especially if they try to pull away the 8% currently predicted for the Workers Party (especially if they run a Gaza-friendly candidate). Reform would need to run an absolutely spotless candidate to ensure chance of victory, but that would be a mountain for them to climb.

Interesting in that it allows for the possibility of Burnham but I also think it's quite a high-risk strategy of embarassment in this environment. Greens and Reform will both want to make their claim to the seat and surely Starmer won't allow for a rival that easily.

Early rumours (that should be taken with a Lot’s worth of salt) that it could see both the Greens & Reform running their highest profile non-MPs. If all 3 of them end up on the ballot paper I would be a very surprised panda.

Oh goodness, hope this doesn't turn into a "minor political celebrity" election -

George Galloway contested the predecessor seat of Gorton in 2017 (initially at a by-election, which become the General Election when it was called early), winning 8% of the vote. If he runs for the Workers Party, then there's no hope of them standing aside to give the Greens a boost.

Polanski would be an idiot to stand in a seat like this!

Could be proved wrong in less than 24 hours as that's all he's got apparently but I honestly don't think Burnham is standing, this smells like too much of a media frenzy about the possibility of a leadership challenge and he has to know getting blocked by the NEC after standing down as mayor or god forbid losing would torch his career instantly.

Polanski might as there's a possibility the Greens can capitalise here and he won't be done in by losing.

If Andy Burnham wants to what is best for the Labour party, he will say that he is going to concentrate on his current job, and that he isn't interested in standing in any parliamentary byelection.

Burnham is attempting to run.

Game on for Celebrity By-Election

And... he's blocked.

me when I'm in a 'blow a story up for no reason and alienate everyone who wants to vote with me' competition and my opponent is the Labour Party

Looks like Labour’s NEC would rather see a Reform UK MP in Gorton than the risk of Andy Burnham challenging Starmer’s leadership from within parliament.

If they thought that this would stop Labour Party psychodrama, it’s a ruddy funny way of doing so.

Very bad decision. Who's on the NEC? STARMER. He's running scared of Burnham. He may not even have been elected or may not have won and PM challenge.

Anyway his Mayoral term expires before the GE, in 2028 I believe, so he could stand then and they couldn't use the Mayoral cost excuse.

Edited January 25Jan 25 by CRAZY CHRIS

2 hours ago, Brett-Butler said:

Looks like Labour’s NEC would rather see a Reform UK MP in Gorton than the risk of Andy Burnham challenging Starmer’s leadership from within parliament.

If they thought that this would stop Labour Party psychodrama, it’s a ruddy funny way of doing so.

The counter argument is Burnham might not win the by-election and Manchester has a nice £5m election at the cost of a tax payer all because of a vanity project. Burham had his chance to be a MP in 2024, he should own it and run again in 2029. Instead he ran off to a safe job and is now having to pay the price.

Also, hilarious how a Blarite is now the hope of the a wing of the Party. He is a better communictor than Starmer, but don't think he's a better politican.

19 minutes ago, Rooney said:

The counter argument is Burnham might not win the by-election and Manchester has a nice £5m election at the cost of a tax payer all because of a vanity project.

I don’t think Burnham has to resign in order to stand as an MP, only if he were to win the by-election.

Gorton and Denton looks like fairly fertile territory for Green gain if the centre + left bloc is not hopelessly split between them, Worker's Party and Labour. I don't think the right wing vote (ignoring whatever the hell Worker's Party are) should be much higher than 35% here, even if almost all of that is Reform.

i think polanski has decided not to run so relying on the local green party to select a great candidate and everyone behind them x

Matt Goodwin is the Reform candidate.

I have never wanted a person or politician to lose more.