I get your argument but some of your examples are suspect , like Britney, Gaga and possibly a few more

But acts like Emeli sande are ommitted

I think Chappell's a unique case, she broke through with a new song (Good Luck, Babs) which doesn't even feature on the album - it's basically an old album where songs have blown up from it on the back of GLB so I think she has bigger things to come yet with the upcoming "current" era.

Ordinary looking better by the day. Chappell will need a huge first day

Alex Warren could end up being this years 'Beautiful things' unfortunately. It's not a terrible song I just find it a bit bland which clearly means its the next number one :(

2 hours ago, Eric_Blob said:

How do you know this isn't her peak though?

There are a plethora of artists who peak with their breakthrough era that makes them household names and then decline after that, Britney Spears, Christina Aguilera, 50 Cent, Lady Gaga, Alanis Morisette, Olivia Rodrigo, Duffy, James Blunt, Ke$ha, etc.

I think Dido is another example, maybe. Arguably only a very slight decline on her 2nd album but it didn't follow the logic of "my breakthrough era made me a huge star so my next one will be bigger".

I'm not sure if last year was Chappell's 1st album (and i think technically it wasnt Alanis Morisette's 1st album, etc), but she broke through in the mainstream and became a household name and it's functionally hardly any different to what happened with these other artists, and why I specifically chose "breakthrough era" instead of "1st album" in the previous paragraph.you've

I disagree with your point. You're having a mix bag of artists. Most of those you listed had amazing 2nd eras, Britney is the perfect example of you reap what you've sown, same as Dido, Christina, Olivia Rodrigo. Dido's 2nd era was as huge as the first maybe even more. Of course it's not an universal rule. People who have a huge hit but are borderline annoying (James Blunt, Mika) are never have 2 huge eras in a row.

Life for Rent wasn't bigger than No Angel though. It got off to a faster start, for sure, but in the end, No Angel is certified 10x platinum and Life for Rent is 9x platinum. You may disparage James Blunt but his career has had a longer tail than Dido's despite the second era not quite matching the first. Let's not forget that the "difficult second album" situation - there are probably even more examples of artists who faltered with their second era in comparison to those who stepped it up.

Chappell feels more comparable, on a bigger scale, to someone like Sabrina Carpenter, who was building her status with the emails i can't send era, helped by a couple of viral hits, before launching Espresso. Espresso of course took on a life of its own, but that was through the strength of the song itself, so it remains to be seen if The Giver will do well off the back of what will undoubtedly be a strong start (and obviously her biggest to date but that's not hard).

Artists like Britney and Olivia had huge debut eras anyway (let's not forget both their debut singles went to #1).

Playboi Carti & Kendrick Lamar

21 minutes ago, Sour Candy said:

Playboi Carti & Kendrick Lamar

No way is Carti dropping an album 🤣 He's the boy who cried wolf

Now that we've heard 'The Giver' I'm even more convinced it's heading straight to #1!

FUFN is amazing though, really hope that smashes too!

I voted for Anxiety, if it keeps rising I think it could be next

Not so sure that the new Chappell song will reach number 1 here

Is Chappell releasing a video for the giver