A predictor thread for petal! With just over a month to go until Ariana drops album #8 I thought I’d make a thread about how we think this will do on week one.

Tried to make options as realistic as possible by looking at how much her biggest debuts had been!

This time around she’s releasing an album on tour so there’s promo there, there’s been a longer pre order period than there was for her last two releases too, and there’s many variants / bundles too. I think these will / should all work in her favour.

For reference these are her UK opening sales so far!

Yours Truly - 7,164 (#7)

My Everything - 23,766 (#3)

Dangerous Woman - 19,582 (#1)

sweetener - 44,755 (#1)

thank u, next 65,214 (#1)

positions - 27,472 (#1)

eternal sunshine - 38,207 (#1)

And I believe these are her US sales in week one

Yours Truly - 138k (#1)

My Everything - 169k (#1)

Dangerous Woman - 175k (#2!! Behind Drakes Views)

sweetener - 231k (#1)

thank u, next - 360k (#1)

positions - 174k (#1)

eternal sunshine - 227k (#1)

Edited June 27Jun 27 by Jordanlee1402

Hoping it'll be another upward trend / her best first week since thank u, next - went for the 45-54k option! I'll guess 46k as an exact figure, beating sweetener.

Chose 250-299k in the USA so an improvement on eternal sunshine there as well

Also forgot to add the “position” on there on where we think this will enter! 🤩

I’m hopeful for a #1 debut on both unless something major happens. I’m gonna perhaps be optimistic here and say 300k or just under for the USA! As for the UK I think it might do similar-ish to sweetener so maybe around the 45k mark. I think if we get another single before album release sales might be higher / more pre orders could happen!

I think this should hold up decent enough though with the tour (and the UK shows being directly after album release!).

EDIT: Since this thread there’s yet another version of the album available (tour version) with a 32 page booklet. This is just on the US store as of yet so hoping the UK get this.

Edited June 28Jun 28 by Jordanlee1402

Some more variants have now been added to the store (the US Store that is) but hopefully the UK get access to the store too!

3 weeks to go for the release.

EDIT: so the new cover is on the UK store but the edition with the 32 page booklet isn’t as of yet. There’s 9 variations of the album on the UK store at the moment a mix of different covers, CD, digital download, cassette. And HMV also have a different cover as well unique to them too. At the moment I have two editions ordered but I always do a digital download from iTunes too so that’ll be 3 sales off of me!

Edited July 11Jul 11 by Jordanlee1402

I think the hype is not as big as it was with eternal sunshine and I am going for UK 25k-34k / US 150k-199k, but I could be wrong!!!

We’re now in the immediate days before release!

Any updated predictions anyone?

Edited Friday at 22:341 day by Jordanlee1402

@talkofthecharts on twitter have given this a projection of 275k+ in the U.S. at the moment!

so looking at her second biggest debut behind thank u, next

Should of read your comment first grossly overestimated now with 350k🤣🤣

Can see it doing anywhere between 40 and 70k here went for 65k

275 is the minimum apparently so probably looking at 300ish

Oh now they're saying its defo over 300k and Petal the single is challenging for #1 over there. Is she about to do the chart double on Billboard!

The streaming figures for the UK were pretty great yesterday (slightly over eternal sunshine).

Physical sales im intrigued to see! I do hope she has some strong sales though. I have 3 copies of the album and I imagine some other stans will have bought more than one copy! I’m hopeful she could potentially be coming for the (bar thank u, next) best sales week of her career here?

62m worldwide streams impressive but lower than olivia is Ariana a bigger physical seller have i been optimistic 😅

According to Hits Daily Double she's projected to do over 300k in the US.