Posted September 29, 200717 yr Unless the Tories pull something unexpected out of the bag this week, I think Brown probably will call one, most likely for 1st November. Opinion polls are showing Labour with an 11-point lead now, so he'd be pretty stupid to let that go to waste imo. Your thoughts?
September 29, 200717 yr Author Bah, there was meant to be a poll attached to this post! I wonder why it didn't work...
September 29, 200717 yr Leaving aside any party political considerations, the arguments are like this. For an election Thony Blair said that he would serve a full term. Therefore, voters at the last election will have expected a fresh election soon after the new PM took over. The opposition parties have been calling for one - even though they probably don't want one. So, he can say "You asked for an election. Here is one". Against There doesn't need to be one. They are only half way through the term, they have a helathy majority and there isn't a major crisis meaning they feel the need to ask for a vote of confidence. A week ago I was fairly certain there wouldn't be an autumn election. Now, I'm not so sure.
September 29, 200717 yr Against There doesn't need to be one. They are only half way through the term, they have a helathy majority and there isn't a major crisis meaning they feel the need to ask for a vote of confidence. Except should they win a 2007 election they won't need to call another one for another four years. Given right now there's not much chance of them NOT being re-elected, it would be an easy way of guaranteeing their stay in power a tad longer. It does seem like all the signs are there for an autumn election; Labour are in the healthiest position they've been in for a while, there's been talk of "election advisers" being brought in by them. And Brown may well want to put to rest any talk of him being an unelected PM.
September 29, 200717 yr Think Gordon may just call one but will be stupid if he does. There's no need as they're only half-way through the term. I know it's very unlikely but what if he was beaten? He'd go down in history as the shortest serving PM ever.
September 29, 200717 yr Think Gordon may just call one but will be stupid if he does. There's no need as they're only half-way through the term. I know it's very unlikely but what if he was beaten? He'd go down in history as the shortest serving PM ever. Not quite. Even if he goes for Oct 25 and loses, he will have lasted one day longer than George Canning in 1827. He did have a good excuse though. He died.
September 29, 200717 yr When is the latest date an election can be called? Can an election wait until 2009 for example?
September 29, 200717 yr Author When is the latest date an election can be called? Can an election wait until 2009 for example? There needs to be an election atleast every 5 years, so he could wait until spring 2010 in theory. Elections are mostly held every 4 years though, and would only be delayed further than that if the reigning party thought they were likely to lose.
September 29, 200717 yr Author Think Gordon may just call one but will be stupid if he does. There's no need as they're only half-way through the term. I know it's very unlikely but what if he was beaten? He'd go down in history as the shortest serving PM ever. That's true in theory, but realistically, barring some major disaster, there's little chance of Labour losing an election held in the next month. It would be a far bigger gamble not to seize this chance, especially considering economic recession may be on the horizon... Edited September 29, 200717 yr by Danny
September 29, 200717 yr Bah, there was meant to be a poll attached to this post! I wonder why it didn't work... Sorted :cheer:
September 30, 200717 yr i think there will be one soon, brown is way ahead in the polls so could secure 5 years by going now whilst the tories are so.... where?...lol. its worrying though that many of thatchers old palls are backing brown!!! including lord tebit!
September 30, 200717 yr Can't understand why Cameron's again calling for one, according to this morning's news, considering he's likely to lose.
September 30, 200717 yr Can't understand why Cameron's again calling for one, according to this morning's news, considering he's likely to lose. The only explanation I can think of, is he knows he's on his way down and out, this is a last roll of the dice for him. He's probably aware it's a lost cause, but he's looking doomed either way.
September 30, 200717 yr Can't understand why Cameron's again calling for one, according to this morning's news, considering he's likely to lose. 1) He's been calling for an election since Brown took over. He'd appear a bit of a chump (even more so than normal) if he suddenly changed his tune now. 2) If Brown doesn't call an election, Cameron can accuse him of running scared.
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