The Glasgow East by-election has got to be the electoral contest of the year...in terms of political impact possibly bigger even than Crewe and Nantwich. If the SNP can capture this constituency then New Labour are almost certainly finished both sides of the border.

 

Whilst the Tories and Liberals might see slight improvements in their share of the votes this is going to be a bitter fought battle between Labour and the SNP...with no prisoners taken. If the SNP capture Glasgow East then I would hazard a guess that the Labour Party will dump Gordon Brown virtually overnight.

 

2005 General Election Result for Glasgow East

 

Labour - David Marshall - 18,775 votes (60.7% share)

SNP - Lachlan McNeill - 5,268 votes (17.0% share)

Liberals - David Jackson - 3,665 votes (11.8% share)

Tories - Carl Thomson - 2,135 votes (6.9% share )

Socialists - George Savage - 1,096 votes (3.5% share)

 

Labour Majority 13,507

 

Turnout 30,939 (48.2% of electorate)

If Labour loses its 3rd safest seat in Scotland, is it the end for Brown?

Yes, if Glasgow East falls I really think Flash Gordon will need to go. But I don't think Labour will lose Glasgow East. They will have a hugely reduced majority but I think they'll hold on to it.

 

Labour could stick a red rosette on a dead sheep there and the masses would still vote for it. <_<

I would personally love to see Glasgow East fall to the SNP, I really would.... And there is something in the air which exists now where it's conceivable that it may just happen.... The discontent that people are showing towards Nu Labor and "Pa Broon" is just unbelievable, far moreso than in 2005... If the SNP go in all guns blazing, there's just something in my gut that tells me that a protest vote could see Nu Labor fall..... There's no reason why the SNP shouldn't win tbh, they're far more popular in Scotland than Nu Labor are at the moment and we Scots aren't exactly shy in telling the Govt of the day to fukk off, remember the Tory wipe out in '97, "safe" Tory seats were falling like 10-pins....? :lol: :lol: Ahhh, sweet memories...... ^_^

It's not natural SNP territory. Even though the SNP is far to the left of 'Nu Labour', the poorest people in Scotland don't tend to vote SNP. The East End of Glasgow also has a high Catholic population. Catholics in West Cental Scotland have historically voted Labour. And that's an additional factor the Nats need to overcome. The state of the economy ain't going to matter a jot to most of the 'I vote Labour because my faither voted Labour' types.

 

The only thing which could perhaps go against Labour is voter apathy in the poorer areas. If Labour don't get the vote out and if the people in the more affluent areas like Garrowhill do go to the polls then the SNP maybe have a chance. But I still have doubts. It's too much of an ask I suspect. Glasgow East is not full of floating voters wanting to give Gordy a kick in the teeth. Voting loyalties are entrenched here. Over many generations.

 

I once worked beside a highly educated guy who was Catholic. We were having a heated discussion about the SNP and independence. He told me he would never vote SNP in a million years because if Scotland was independent it would be run by the Orange Lodge and Catholics would lose all their rights. Totally ludicrous but that's what he'd been brought up to believe. Then you have the Orangemen (dirt poor or otherwise) who all vote Tory. My aunt didn't have a pot to p*** in but voted Tory all her life. She was in The Lodge. They never vote SNP either.The SNP will break up the beloved Union with Northern Ireland you see and we can't have that. :rolleyes:

 

All I'm saying is there's a lot more to voting patterns in West Central Scotland than the effects of an economic downturn.

 

 

 

http://www.stv.tv/news/Labour_Lauches_byel...080708151253368

 

http://i37.tinypic.com/2v8nvkn.jpg

Margaret Curran

 

Labour finally launched their Glasgow East by-election campaign today and ran straight into trouble. Candidate Margaret Curran claimed she had lived in the East End all of her life. In fact she lives on the South Side of Glasgow.

 

Unveiled at last- The candidate Labour believes can hold its third safest Scottish seat. Margaret Curran said: ""I've worked in the east end all my life, and lived in the east end all my life." In fact she has lived in middle class areas of the south side for a number of years. :lol:

 

Ms Curran has actually spent much of her life on Glasgow's South side. She is of course an

MSP who wants to be an MP. Asked, if successful would she quit Holyrood, she replied: ""That will be resolved in the short term. I think..."

 

As for how long the short term would be , she replied: ""Well, can I tell you what I'll do - I'm making my position very clear - I'll take that to the constituents,the people I speak to on the doors. I'll ask them. "

 

She also appeared to back Scottish Labour's line on an independence referendum, saying: "I am not frightened of the verdict of the Scottish people." On Iraq, she seemed to want to duck the question. Asked if she supported the war in Iraq, she replied: "I voted in the Scottish Parliament for us to have a second resolution at the... em... United Nations, um, em, and that's what I'll be doing. Thank you." :lol:

 

( If you really want a laugh click on the video- oh dear..... :lol: )

I worked for years in that very street where she was being interviewed! :teresa:

I see she is a member of the Scottish Parliament as well, that means Labour will have to stop hassling wee Alex, about wearing 2 hats. :lol:

 

I think this contest might be pretty close, Broon hasnt really done much for this part of the country.

if this seat fall to SNP, brown should watch his ass because i imagine one of the only seats safer is his and he could loose his safety margin if not his own seat at the next general election

Read tonight that Labour are delaying the vote on embryo research till The Autumn (after the by-election),so as not to have an adverse reaction. One third of the voters in this by election are catholic, just shows that they are running scared.

Read tonight that Labour are delaying the vote on embryo research till The Autumn (after the by-election),so as not to have an adverse reaction.

 

Pathetic fukkin' cowardice.... <_< Another example of how progress and political debate is being held hostage by religious extremism....

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics...asgow-East.html

 

 

'A vote Labour cos a've always voted Labour and ma faither voted Labour' :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics...asgow-East.html

'A vote Labour cos a've always voted Labour and ma faither voted Labour' :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

 

Pathetic really innit....? I really cant stand these types, they just clearly dont even look at the issues... The Tories have them too... How else do you explain a prick like Boris Johnson being elected as an MP.....?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/poli...icle4322703.ece

 

 

Labour MPs told to invade Scotland ahead of Glasgow East by-election

 

Isabel Oakeshott, Deputy Political Editor

 

Every Labour MP will be ordered to campaign in Glasgow East amid mounting panic that the party could lose the by-election in the constituency this month.

 

Party whips are launching an extraordinary operation to ensure that every minister and backbencher hits the streets on the tough estates of Easterhouse to try to stave off the threat from the Scottish National party (SNP).

 

The rearguard action is remarkable because Labour’s Margaret Curran will be defending a majority of 13,500. The SNP needs a swing of 22%.

 

The visits will be strictly monitored, with backbenchers required to clock in when they reach Glasgow. MPs have been warned the trips are not a “jolly” and that they must be seen to be doing the “donkey work” of canvassing.

 

Ministers who can show they have too much work on to make the 800-mile round trip from London will be required to contact voters by telephone.

 

The orders risk triggering a mutiny within the party, with many MPs struggling to hide their lack of enthusiasm for campaigning in one of the grimmest constituencies in Britain.

 

It could also prove extremely costly for Labour, which is already in financial trouble. The cheapest saver return tickets to Glasgow from London next week cost more than £100. MPs will not be able to claim the trip on parliamentary expenses and may turn to the party for help.

 

There is mounting speculation at Westminster that a defeat for Labour would prove terminal for Gordon Brown’s leadership. Party strategists admit that until this month, the seat had been seen as so secure that no campaign resources have been directed at it.

 

“It’s not as if we’re starting from any sort of base. We’re starting from absolutely nothing,” said one Labour official.

 

The latest YouGov poll put the SNP on 33% in Scotland, with Labour on 29%.

 

Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, has warned Glasgow East could be hit by a “political earthquake”. The constituency has the highest proportion of voters on incapacity benefit in the country with unemployment at 50% in some areas.

 

Religion could also play a part in the poll, which was called after the surprise resignation of David Marshall. The area is staunchly Roman Catholic and many voters are opposed to the embryology bill.

 

:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

 

(Are they going to get police protection to do their canvassing? Better not leave their cars unattended :lol: )

 

 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/poli...icle4318994.ece

 

 

Inside Glasgow East, where Gordon Brown's a cursed name

Tough place to live, easy place to die

 

http://i37.tinypic.com/dfg03q.jpg

 

Ben Macintyre

“I cannae wait to get my kids out of here.”

 

Easterhouse, a grim council estate in the East End of Glasgow, must once have been an attractive place, set on a green hill on the edge of the city. Now — like the woman I am talking to — it seems frayed, close to despair.

 

Karen Livingston has a tired face, five children, no job and a cramped home in a grey block overlooking a muddy wasteland where gangs fight most nights with knives and golf clubs. She closes the curtains so the children do not see. She is locked in a desperate feud with a neighbour over allegations of drug dealing. She is on medication for panic attacks. And she is 35. In Easterhouse, that is already old.

 

We are standing outside a dimly lit, ill-stocked supermarket in the mid-morning rain. The library is shuttered. Even the “regeneration centre” has boarded windows. A small knot of wary local residents has gathered to watch John Mason, the SNP candidate, hand out leaflets at the bus stop.

 

 

The mere mention of the Prime Minister's name provokes a blast of fury from the man standing next to Ms Livingston, a beery explosion of rage of which only the expletives are comprehensible.

 

Kathleen Conaghan, a large purple stud in her tongue and small Scottish flag in her hand, is more lucid: “My vote is going to the SNP. It's the ones that don't vote that end up letting Labour in.”

 

If she is representative of her fellow constituents, then Mr Brown is in deep political trouble.

 

Glasgow East is more than just traditional Labour territory: for five decades the party has taken for granted the support of voters here almost as a feudal right. At the last election, David Marshall, the Labour MP since 1979, was returned with a majority of 13,500. To take the seat, the SNP needs a swing of 22 per cent. But the by-election on July 24, triggered when Mr Marshall resigned because of ill-health, takes place in a changed political landscape. The SNP is in government in Scotland and on a roll. David Cameron has also waded in, calling this the “broken society by-election”, payback for Labour's failure to tackle drug addiction, knife crime and poverty.

 

After Labour's embarrassing defeat in Crewe & Nantwich and its chronic performance at Henley, Mr Brown's enemies predict that a Labour defeat in Glasgow East would carry such unbearable symbolic weight that the Prime Minister may be forced out.

 

That apocalyptic vision may be premature, ramped up by a Scottish press that is keen to give this by-election heavy national significance. A combination of tradition, apathy and a strong candidate in Margaret Curran, a Member of the Scottish Parliament, may yet see Labour cling on. But the mere fact that defeat is being contemplated is a sign of how much arteries have hardened in Labour's heartland.

 

Glasgow East is a hard place to live, and a grotesquely easy place to die. In parts of the constituency, male life expectancy is 54, lower than The Gambia, nearly a decade lower than Bangladesh, and about 24 years below the national average. Move just a few miles to leafy Bearsden and you will live, on average, 30 years longer. Despite this, people here do not and cannot leave. For all Ms Livingston's lament, her kids are stuck in a ghetto ringed by some of the saddest statistics in Britain. Glasgow East has the highest proportion of voters on incapacity benefit or disability allowance and the fewest qualifications in higher education; nearly half the constituency's homes are social housing; and, in parts, unemployment has reached 50 per cent.

 

Money has been spent on the area, including investment in schools and housing, but the visible effect is negligible. A visit to the drug-drenched estates of Easterhouse prompted Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader, to found the think-tank Centre for Social Justice.

 

Whether the pervasive sense of social injustice in Glasgow East will translate into nationalist votes is more doubtful. Mr Mason has proved an effective city councillor, but in his pinstriped suit on the pavement of Easterhouse he looks oddly out of place: once the rebel on the Scottish political landscape, the SNP has become the party in power.

 

After an almost comical search for a Labour candidate — the favourite, George Ryan, another city councillor, unexpectedly bowed out citing personal reasons — the party settled on Ms Curran, a former minister in the Scottish Parliament: experienced in the street fight that is Glasgow politics, local and extremely tough. “Ye wouldnae want to take a broken pay packet home tae her,” as one of my Glasgow friends put it.

 

There is another quality to the East End electorate that is probably best defined by the Scots word “thrawn”, meaning contrary or perverse. If the experts in Westminster are predicting disaster for Mr Brown, then the voters here may well do precisely the opposite, partly out of residual sympathy for an underdog, partly out of defiance, and partly out of habit.

 

“I've always voted Labour. Always will. Just like my father did,” said Douglas Connor, heading to the shops in Easterhouse. “None of youse is going to tell me how to vote.” :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

 

Another important tribal element is religion. Glasgow East is predominantly Roman Catholic, while Mr Mason is a Baptist. The Government's decision to delay the controversial Embryology Bill may prove to be a canny tactic and head off potential resentment.

 

Inevitably, the Labour campaign is focusing on the rare pockets of success here. To that end, Ms Curran poses manfully among the sporrans and kilts of Britain's largest maker of formal Highland dress, a business that employs 120.

 

“The things I have to do,” says Ms Curran with a tight smile, holding up a kilt for the cameras.

 

“What is that tartan?” we ask.

 

“That,” Tony Burns, general manager of ACS Clothing, says “is the Dress Gordon.”

 

“Is it popular?”

 

“Not very,” he says, apparently unaware of the gift he is presenting to the press. “It is just about 8 or 9 per cent.” He shakes his head, and sighs. “No, the Gordon is not too popular.”

 

Whether Glasgow East changes its political stripes will depend on just how unpopular Gordon has become.

 

 

(Good article. So true. But so f*ckin depressing too :cry: )

 

 

This isn't a normal by-election. Glasgow East voters realise they could kill the UK Labour government by voting Labour out of its third-safest seat in Scotland. Gordon Brown would probably be finished. Many voters here believe Labour deserves to lose Glasgow East, but more may decide Britain doesn't deserve a return of the Tories. Better the monkeys you know than the monkeys you don't. :thinking:

You gotta read this one!

 

http://www.order-order.com/2008/07/exclusi...r-fakes-93.html

 

 

:lol: :lol: :lol: :arrr:

Today's political decision, delay the 2p increase in fuel duty. Nothing to do with the election then.

Edited July 16, 200817 yr by brian91

Of course not! :o :teresa:

 

Although I doubt there's all that much car ownership in Glasgow East. Not the 4x4 gas guzzlers anyway! :lol:

Sitting up waiting for result. Seems to be a lot closer than I expected. Come on the Nats!!!! :cheer: :yahoo: :cheer:

Looking very close