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> Eurovision Song Contest 2017 · Predictions
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LexC♀
post Mar 18 2017, 09:18 PM
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As is tradition, I bring you the predictions thread.

• Feel free to go into as much or as little depth and detail as you wish, from ‘I think the UK Germany will come last’ to full predictions of everyone’s positions with points and justifications essays.
• You will make some predictions that turn out to be wrong, that's the name of the game. The challenge will be to see if you can end up with comparatively less egg on your face than everyone else, just make sure you've thought through your bold assertions before you make them.
• New information comes to light all the time between now and the live show so you can revise your predictions as often as you like (within reason though, obviously).
• If you're Ryan and you say something ridiculous like "PKN are coming top of the televote" or "Zoe isn't qualifying" then prepare to be scalpT

BuzzJack, start predicting NOW!
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LexC♀
post Mar 18 2017, 09:19 PM
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And if you want to see how way off we were last year, this be last year's thread.
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J▲hq
post Mar 18 2017, 09:58 PM
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QUOTE(LexC @ Mar 18 2017, 09:18 PM) *
• If you're Ryan and you say something ridiculous like "PKN are coming top of the televote" or "Zoe isn't qualifying" then prepare to be scalpT


Or "Italy aren't winning"

basil.gif

Semi 1

Feel pretty confident on these
Sweden
Belgium
Azerbaijan
Portugal

Think these are safe bets (in part due to past form)
Armenia
Greece
Poland
Australia

In terms of quality, these SHOULD be through (but I worry these may be what we're weeping for on the evening of May 9th)
Latvia
Iceland
--
These could sneak in
Finland
Moldova
Montenegro
Cyprus

I would be shocked at these (and maybe a little disgusted)
Slovenia
Albania
Georgia
Czech Republic



Semi 2

Will eat my hat etc.
Romania
Serbia
Bulgaria
Estonia
Israel

One of the best entries of the year (but it's MACEDONIA)
Macedonia

Don't really get this (but they've been in every final since 2011)
Hungary

Safe enough
Belarus

Final two picks
Denmark
Netherlands
--
Not ruling it out (though in the case of Russia I f***ing wish I could!)
Russia
Austria
Switzerland
Norway
Lithuania

I'm ruling you out (unless Europe LIVES for the crazy!)
Croatia
Ireland
Malta
San Marino
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LexC♀
post Mar 18 2017, 10:02 PM
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QUOTE(J▲hq @ Mar 18 2017, 09:58 PM) *
Or "Italy aren't winning"

basil.gif


Or

QUOTE(J▲hq @ Mar 18 2017, 09:58 PM) *
Semi 1

Feel pretty confident on these
Portugal


basil.gif
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gooddelta
post Mar 18 2017, 10:06 PM
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1. Italy

No idea after that...! I don't think Sweden will be as high as second as the odds currently suggest, but beyond what I believe will be a relatively clear winner (as in, by at least 50 points) I don't know right now how things will line up underneath.
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J▲hq
post Mar 18 2017, 10:13 PM
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QUOTE(LexC @ Mar 18 2017, 10:02 PM) *
Or



basil.gif


I mean it does feel WRONG to be 'confident' on Portugal of all countries, especially when I consider the song a total bore myself (like third least favourite), but the odds and story around him have really drawn me in..
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LexC♀
post Mar 18 2017, 10:23 PM
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In longform, I rebute Portugal's status as a favorite.

(I was working on this one anyway, I'm not so quick at writing these that I can knock that out in five minutes, I hasten to add)
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LexC♀
post Mar 18 2017, 10:24 PM
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QUOTE(J▲hq @ Mar 18 2017, 10:13 PM) *
but the odds and story around him have really drawn me in..


Like how the odds and story around PKN resulted in them coming last in their semi?
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Cameron
post Mar 18 2017, 10:26 PM
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I just want Switzerland, Azerbaijan and Denmark to somehow all qualify. I know Switzerland are esc flops but I live in hope
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Iz~
post Mar 18 2017, 10:33 PM
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I have not been understanding one bit the hype about Portugal either. There is so much nothing there on first listen, the song sounds ancient in style, there's HIM, and I think we've established that the elderly just don't vote as much as we think they do. Or at least they don't vote how we'd expect them to.

Lex sums it up perfectly in his article but I also feel compelled to share what I wrote about it a few days ago, I'm doing the whole entry overview thing from a position more of EMOTION and personal opinion, so as to not completely be stealing your thunder there Lex but I did talk a bit about how I expect it out, but on the borderline, I'm not quite as confident as Lex in predicting it straight out.

I'm definitely going to attempt a full prediction soon. I got several things completely wrong on my first prediction in that thread last year so I want to be a bit more careful with how I approach this.
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Umi
post Mar 18 2017, 10:47 PM
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'Amar pelos dois' is basically the new 'Sognu', isn't it?
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Ryan.
post Mar 19 2017, 12:12 AM
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Going to do mine by splitting up the jury and televote as when I did it last year I actually predicted Bosnia & H and Greece to DNQ. When I did my normal predictions I didn't have the guts to do it so it seemingly helps me be more objective about things! All predictions are calculated by adding the two votes together with lowest winning except for Romania who get a bit of a boost for being an easy televote winner.

Semi-Final One

Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction

01 02 01 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
02 03 03 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
03 06 04 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
04 09 02 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
05 01 14 Greece: Demy - This Is Love
06 08 07 Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons
07 05 13 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me
08 12 06 Iceland: Svala - Paper
09 04 16 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
10 16 05 Finland: Norma John - Blackbird
11 07 15 Poland: Kasia Moś - Flashlight
12 14 08 Albania: Lindita - World
13 11 11 Latvia: Triana Park - Line
14 13 10 Georgia: Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith
15 17 09 Czech Republic: Martina Bárta - My Turn
16 15 12 Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity
17 10 18 Montenegro: Slavko Kalezić - Space
18 18 17 Slovenia: Omar Naber - On My Way


Semi-Final Two

Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction

01 02 01 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
02 05 02 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
03 07 03 The Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
04 01 14 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
05 03 11 Estonia: Koit Toome and Laura - Verona
06 08 06 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
07 12 04 Switzerland: Timebelle - Apollo
08 06 10 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive
09 10 08 F.Y.R. Macedonia: Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone
10 11 09 Serbia: Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep
11 04 18 Russia: Julia Samoylova - Flame Is Burning
12 18 05 Malta: Claudia Faniello - Breathlessly
13 16 07 Norway: JOWST - Grab The Moment
14 09 16 Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
15 15 12 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air
16 13 15 Hungary: Joci Pápai - Origo
17 14 17 Lithuania: Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution
18 19 13 Ireland: Brendan Murray - Dying To Try
19 17 19 San Marino: Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The Night


I'll give individual reasons at some point like I did last year. Very very difficult to order them at this early stage and I'm sure I'll be making edits, but I am happy with my 2 top 10s there! I didn't add the votes up until after doing each separate half so I didn't know what my result was going to look like but it has come out similar to what I had in my head so I'm going with this.
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Umi
post Mar 19 2017, 12:45 AM
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Are you basing your prediction for Serbia on Malta's performance last year? I can't see how they do anywhere near as poorly in the televote as that.
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RobBob
post Mar 19 2017, 12:52 AM
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I think Romania's televote success might be being overestimated quite a bit, that's my prediction.
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LexC♀
post Mar 19 2017, 12:52 AM
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And I don't think Romania is going to be anywhere near as low as fourteenth with the jury. It's too much of a standard pop song to be universally snubbed in such a way.
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ScottyEm
post Mar 19 2017, 10:33 AM
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In no particular order:

Semi 1

Australia
Azerbaijan
Belgium
Sweden
Portugal (could literally go either way)
Armenia
Cyprus
Iceland (so long as they sort out the staging and styling)
Latvia
Poland (dyaspora and the song isn't COMPLETELY atrocious, so will probably sneak in)

The token shock: realising Semi 1 is more competitive than previously thought, I think Greece may struggle again. I don't think the juries will be overly enthusiastic and it's too generic to pull in the televotes? Could be wrong...


Semi 2

Denmark (total borderline though, it's generic as hell but will sneak in with it being a rather shoddy year)
Hungary
FYR Macedonia
Romania
Russia (jury may place this outside the top ten but televote will prop it upwards)
Serbia
Bulgaria
Estonia (I hope... I can see this being a potential fanwank also)
Israel
Lithuania (dyaspora and a likely cleaned up version for Kiev will get it through)

The token shock: Lithuania qualifying.


This post has been edited by ScottyEm: Mar 19 2017, 10:44 AM
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AdamAloud
post Mar 19 2017, 06:32 PM
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Not doing specific positions yet, it's too hard without the running order/hints about staging.

Semi 1
Australia
Azerbaijan
Belgium
Georgia
Greece
Iceland
Latvia
Moldova
Poland
Sweden

Semi 2
Belarus
Bulgaria
Croatia
Denmark
Estonia
Hungary
Israel
Macedonia
Romania
The Netherlands
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Ryan.
post Mar 19 2017, 07:39 PM
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QUOTE(Umi @ Mar 19 2017, 12:45 AM) *
Are you basing your prediction for Serbia on Malta's performance last year? I can't see how they do anywhere near as poorly in the televote as that.


I wasn't actually but coming to think of it that could be a valid comparison there. In Too Deep is a very professionally produced pop song but there's nothing about it that makes me think people are going to rush to their phones to vote for it. I think juries will actually prefer it to televoters due to its contemporary nature. Of course we haven't seen Tijana live and she could be amazing, but from what I've seen and heard she doesn't seem to be anything particularly amazing or have a massive likeability factor (see Poli and potentially Jana). Serbia no longer have the advantage of being uptempo as the second half is filled with them and will be performed in better positions. Serbia's lack of televoting support on occasions has continued to surprise me also and I'm not getting caught out again! I still think she'll qualify of course, but I imagine her doing what Sanja did and squeeze through rather than be safely through.

QUOTE(RobBob @ Mar 19 2017, 12:52 AM) *
I think Romania's televote success might be being overestimated quite a bit, that's my prediction.


Yeah perhaps, there's nothing else in this semi that screams obvious televote winner so I've gone with the most memorable thing that isn't going to be overly polarising (see Croatia).

QUOTE(LexC @ Mar 19 2017, 12:52 AM) *
And I don't think Romania is going to be anywhere near as low as fourteenth with the jury. It's too much of a standard pop song to be universally snubbed in such a way.


That's just based on rap's horrendous record with juries. The only time I remember a rap song doing okay is Greece 2011 and even that was only 9th with prime running order slot. Indeed, with the current voting system Greece wouldn't won that semi overall - Azerbaijan would have done.
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Liаm
post Mar 20 2017, 04:44 AM
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I'll maybe do proper predix later but I am so prepared for Iceland to unjustly DNQ again sad.gif
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David
post Mar 20 2017, 07:28 PM
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Always fun doing the first set of predictions. Probably wildly inaccurate, but here we go!

First Semi Final

01 Portugal
02 Belgium
03 Armenia
04 Azerbaijan
05 Moldova
06 Iceland
07 Sweden
08 Australia
09 Greece
10 Montenegro
11 Finland
12 Cyprus
13 Albania
14 Czech Republic
15 Latvia
16 Georgia
17 Poland
18 Slovenia

Second Semi Final

01 Estonia
02 Hungary
03 Bulgaria
04 FYR Macedonia
05 Serbia
06 Israel
07 Romania
08 Belarus
09 Netherlands
10 Croatia
11 Russia
12 Austria
13 San Marino
14 Denmark
15 Norway
16 Switzerland
17 Lithuania
18 Ireland
19 Malta

Final

01 Italy
02 Portugal
03 Armenia
04 Belgium
05 Estonia
06 Bulgaria
07 Iceland
08 Hungary
09 FYR Macedonia
10 Romania
11 Australia
12 Sweden
13 Spain
14 Azerbaijan
15 Montenegro
16 United Kingdom
17 Moldova
18 Serbia
19 France
20 Belarus
21 Greece
22 Israel
23 Ukraine
24 Croatia
25 Germany
26 Netherlands
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