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> Eurovision Song Contest 2018 · Semi Final One, Tuesday 8th May at 8pm UK/Lisbon time, 9pm CET
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AdamAloud
post May 6 2018, 09:04 PM
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Welcome to the Eurovision Song Contest 2018! Gay Christmas has finally come round yet again and we're in for a corker of a year! We're in Lisbon for the first time ever after Salvador Sobral strode his way to victory in Kyiv last year with the song 'Amar Pelos Dois', smashing records to become the biggest scoring Eurovision song of all time (including under the old system before a smart arse pops up with 'but there's double points now!!1'). This not only marked Portugal's first victory in the contest after 49 attempts since their debut in 1964, but was also the first time the country even managed to break the top 5. Proof that anyone can win Eurovision (can't wait for 2028 in Valentina's Back Garden!).

The first semi final is a literal bloodbath of epic proportions. There will be tears, tantrums and most likely broken backs come Wednesday morning. Not only is this the semi final with 19 contestants compared with the second semi's 18, it is also the most competitive semi final with the majority of the favourites of the year with both the bookies and fans alike. So make sure you have your say when the voting opens, if your country is voting in this semi final of course, which as ever is up to the 19 competing countries along with half of the automatic qualifiers, which are Portugal, Spain and United Kingdom in this instance.

Use this thread to discuss everything leading up to Tuesday's big show, including Monday night's dress rehearsal where the juries will decide 50% of the final result. Also feel free to make your predictions of which 10 countries will make Saturday's grand final. I'll be adding together everyone's predictions shortly before the live broadcast to see how right Buzzjack were!

Let the Eurovision Song Contest begin!



01. Azerbaijan Aisel - X My Heart
02. Iceland Ari Ólafsson - Our Choice
03. Albania Eugent Bushpepa - Mall
04. Belgium Sennek - A Matter Of Time
05. Czech Republic Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me
06. Lithuania Ieva Zasimauskaitė - When We're Old
07. Israel Netta - TOY
08. Belarus ALEKSEEV - Forever
09. Estonia Elina Nechayeva - La Forza
10. Bulgaria EQUINOX - Bones
11. Macedonia Eye Cue - Lost & Found
12. Croatia Franka - Crazy
13. Austria Cesár Sampson - Nobody But You
14. Greece Yianna Terzi - Oniro Mou
15. Finland Saara Aalto - Monsters
16. Armenia Sevak Khanagyan - Qami
17. Switzerland ZiBBZ - Stones
18. Ireland Ryan O'Shaughnessy - Together
19. Cyprus Eleni Foureira - Fuego



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AdamAloud
post May 6 2018, 09:05 PM
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Here's who the bookies are predicting to qualify as of Sunday evening, using Eurovision World as the source.

01. Israel
02. Cyprus
03. Czech Republic
04. Estonia
05. Bulgaria
06. Greece
07. Austria
08. Lithuania
09. Belgium
10. Armenia

---
11. Azerbaijan
12. Finland
13. Switzerland
14. Belarus
15. Croatia
16. Ireland
17. Albania
18. Macedonia
19. Iceland
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Hans
post May 6 2018, 09:10 PM
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Greece, Lithuania, Belgium and particularly Armenia qualifying over Finland, Ireland, Macedonia and Azerbaijan would be tragic sleep.gif

This post has been edited by Midge: May 6 2018, 09:10 PM
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cantthinkofaname
post May 6 2018, 11:22 PM
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Prematurely going to predict the following results without having watched most of the rehearsal videos:

01. Israel Netta - TOY
02. Estonia Elina Nechayeva - La Forza
03. Bulgaria EQUINOX - Bones
04. Czech Republic Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me
05. Cyprus Eleni Foureira - Fuego
06. Austria Cesár Sampson - Nobody But You
07. Belgium Sennek - A Matter Of Time
08. Lithuania Ieva Zasimauskaitė - When We're Old
09. Azerbaijan Aisel - X My Heart
10. Armenia Sevak Khanagyan - Qami
--------------------------------------
11. Switzerland ZiBBZ - Stones
12. Greece Yianna Terzi - Oniro Mou
13. Finland Saara Aalto - Monsters
14. Ireland Ryan O'Shaughnessy - Together
15. Croatia Franka - Crazy
16. Belarus ALEKSEEV - Forever
17. Albania Eugent Bushpepa - Mall
18. Macedonia Eye Cue - Lost & Found
19. Iceland Ari Ólafsson - Our Choice
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Liаm
post May 6 2018, 11:41 PM
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Gonna predict:


01 Estonia
02 Israel
03 Cyprus (probably a v optmistic top 3 prediction on my behalf as they're all in my top 5 of the whole thing laugh.gif)
04 Bulgaria
05 Czech Republic
06 Lithuania
07 Armenia
08 Azerbaijan
09 Greece
10 Belgium
---
11 Finland
12 Austria
13 Belarus
14 Switzerland
15 Ireland
16 Albania
17 Croatia
18 Macedonia
19 Iceland

The fact I stand to lose 3 of my top 10 overall (Finland, Switzerland and Macedonia) is not great, I'm almost certain on the latter two not making but Saara is feeling increasingly unlikely sad.gif I really hope Bulgaria is a shock DNQ here, I'd swap that, Armenia and Belgium for Finland, Switzerland and Macedonia then I'd be happy with what I predicted. Honestly though I think down to Belarus could Q and I've got a bit of a feeling about Switzerland being the shock Q for some reason, come thru mystic Liam x
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ScottyEm
post May 7 2018, 12:19 AM
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I think Saara and her team have done enough to get her into the final. It would devastating for her to miss out. What has helped her case is Greece and especially Armenia have received a very muted response from the press centre. I think Belgium could be a bit too boring televoters to appreciate, so I’d expect Sennek to be in trouble?
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Jason
post May 7 2018, 12:56 AM
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My prediction:

1 Israel
2 Cyprus
3 Estonia
4 Czech Republic
5 Bulgaria
6 Lithuania
7 Azerbaijan
8 Belgium
9 Belarus
10 Greece
------------------
11 Austria (God save us from this snoozefest in the final night please) sick2.gif
12 Finland
13 Armenia
14 Albania
15 Ireland
16 Switzerland
17 Croatia
18 Macedonia
19 Iceland
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Iz
post May 7 2018, 12:54 PM
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I don't think I'm going to vote. There's just too many good songs in here but none that are on a level that really stand out above the others so what will be will be. Maybe Macedonia, but maybe also Estonia, maybe Bulgaria and Finland and I don't know if it'll even do anything.
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ScottyEm
post May 7 2018, 01:55 PM
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UK jury this year includes a 23 year old gaydio DJ. 12 points to Saara thank you please.
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LexC
post May 7 2018, 02:30 PM
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Lex's FINAl SEMI ONE PREDICTIONS

01 Israel

I think the fan press have overplayed it a little and so are understandably a bit more muted on this one but I still think that first impression juries and televoters get will be Netta at her full power and they're going to fall in love with her.

02 Cyprus

I expect this to be THE breakout hit from the first semi on iTunes/Spotify

03 Czech Republic

Along with Cyprus, this'll be the one that really hits the charts on Tuesday Night/Wednesday - plus the commentators are likely to mention his injury which should dial up the sympathy votes

04 Estonia

Even though opera is a pretty big handicap, I think this is strong enough to overcome that and qualify quite comfortably. I think the public will have a really strong response to this but, like with Il Volo, the jury score will only be around 8th or so.

05 Bulgaria

The direct inverse of Estonia, I think this will be a really strong jury song but I can see this failing to crack the top 10 of the public vote. If it looks really spooky and austere and they fail to blend together on Monday/Tuesday night then I think they could potentially be in trouble

06 Finland

I actually think Finland's done enough with what they've been given and since it's mostly the fans/people who are tuning in specifically to watch Eurovision that vote in the semis, I think this will have an audience enough to qualify relatively safely. I do, however, believe that they'll leave Finland's reveal til last though! #SaveSaara

07 Azerbaijan

Should be a really strong opening with good staging. I wouldn't call them safely through but, like Finland, they've used the resources at their disposal effectively.

08 Switzerland

We're back to "utilising their resources the best way they can" here - I think Coco especially is going to perform the hell out of this and should see Switzerland back in the final again after four years

09 Austria

I think this will do an "Anja Nissen" so to speak and be top 5 with the juries but get the bare minimum needed from the televote which for Austria is basically all they want

10 Albania

Okay I know this is what I've been blithering on about since March but I can really see Albania being the shock qualifier. It's locked in for high televote points from Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Croatia, Switzerland, Armenia and Azerbaijan from the get go. If all of those countries give this, say, 8 points on the televote then that'll mean it's north of 60 televote points just by turning up. Then add onto that the 50+ jury points that I can see juries very easily awarding to this song and then that's enough points to qualify. I think this'll be the "shock" third qualifier reveal that gets the fans all on edge.

~

11 Lithuania

This is nice and safe but in Semi One, even for Lithuania, safe just isn't going to cut it. Plus being on so early/before Israel, I think this'll have trouble making it from short term to long term memory for most people.

12 Armenia

Having seen the presentation, I think the performance verges between either visually grey/uninteresting or too macho & aggressive. My instinct is calling this one out but I wouldn't be surprised if it knocks out one of Austria/Switzerland

13 Greece

I think this is shooting for "simple" but ends up with "plain". I think the Greek diaspora votes also may well be swallowed up by Eleni later in the show.

14 Belgium

Like Greece, this has high aspirations but ultimately ends up falling flat.

15 Belarus

Cute for a laugh, but this is going to sink without trace.

16 Croatia

Pulled itself up from a no-hoper but it's still really struggling here

17 Ireland

This just exists as a pallet cleanser to set up Cyprus smashing it out of the park

18 Macedonia

What COULD have been a charmingly bonkers 3-in-1 staging has actually ended up just another tepid Macedonian mess.

19 Iceland

100% confident that this will come last.
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Jerick
post May 7 2018, 03:06 PM
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Prediction

1. Israel Netta - TOY
2. Estonia Elina Nechayeva - La Forza
3. Cyprus Eleni Foureira - Fuego
4. Bulgaria EQUINOX - Bones
5. Czech Republic Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me
6. Finland Saara Aalto - Monsters
7. Austria Cesár Sampson - Nobody But You
8. Greece Yianna Terzi - Oniro Mou
9. Azerbaijan Aisel - X My Heart
10. Belarus ALEKSEEV - Forever

----------------------------------------------------------
11. Armenia Sevak Khanagyan - Qami
12. Lithuania Ieva Zasimauskaitė - When We're Old
13. Ireland Ryan O'Shaughnessy - Together
14. Belgium Sennek - A Matter Of Time
15. Macedonia Eye Cue - Lost & Found
16. Albania Eugent Bushpepa - Mall
17. Switzerland ZiBBZ - Stones
18. Croatia Franka - Crazy
19. Iceland Ari Ólafsson - Our Choice
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pippa
post May 7 2018, 03:09 PM
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I will be devastated if Finland fail to qualify.
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pippa
post May 7 2018, 03:17 PM
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1. Cyprus Eleni Foureira - Fuego
2. Israel Netta - TOY
3. Estonia Elina Nechayeva - La Forza
4. Bulgaria EQUINOX - Bones
5. Finland Saara Aalto - Monsters
6. Czech Republic Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me
7. Belarus ALEKSEEV - Forever
8. Ireland Ryan O'Shaughnessy - Together
9. Azerbaijan Aisel - X My Heart
10.Belgium Sennek - A Matter Of Time
----------------------------------------------------------
11. Armenia Sevak Khanagyan - Qami
12. Lithuania Ieva Zasimauskaitė - When We're Old
13. Greece Yianna Terzi - Oniro Mou
14. Austria Cesár Sampson - Nobody But You
15. Iceland Ari Ólafsson - Our Choice
16. Albania Eugent Bushpepa - Mall
17. Switzerland ZiBBZ - Stones
18. Croatia Franka - Crazy
19. Macedonia Eye Cue - Lost & Found

I feel Cyprus are a safe top 5 and possibly top 3 this year. A win for Cyprus or Finland would be the result i would greatly welcome this year.

Ireland could be a dark horse, not to win but qualify in the semi final.


This post has been edited by pippa: May 7 2018, 03:18 PM
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Cameron
post May 7 2018, 04:14 PM
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Let’s pray for Macedonia to not come bottom 3 in the semi please
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ScottyEm
post May 7 2018, 04:24 PM
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Greece and Armenia I think are out. Too niche, will fail to translate outside the Balkan area IMO. These sort of entries need to create a striking mood or feeling to pull off, which apparently both have failed to do in the staging (and given I dislike both entries, I’m secretly pleased smile.gif). Belgium or Finland to get the last announcement, agreed.
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Iz
post May 7 2018, 04:30 PM
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QUOTE(Cameron @ May 7 2018, 05:14 PM) *
Let’s pray for Macedonia to not come bottom 3 in the semi please


I really hope so, all these predictions are quite upsetting for them, they deserve a huge break but I feel like there's too much in this semi for them to get noticed.

QUOTE(ScottyEm @ May 7 2018, 05:24 PM) *
Greece and Armenia I think are out. Too niche, will fail to translate outside the Balkan area IMO. These sort of entries need to create a striking mood or feeling to pull off, which apparently both have failed to do in the staging (and given I dislike both entries, I’m secretly pleased smile.gif). Belgium or Finland to get the last announcement, agreed.


I'd agree but you have to be careful predicting those two out, they often find a way to surprise, I'm feeling like Armenia will make it regardless.
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pippa
post May 7 2018, 06:17 PM
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Macedonia are in trouble this year and i cant see them doing much better than second or third last.

Out of Greece and Armenia i would think Armenia have a greater chance of going through.
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Liаm
post May 7 2018, 09:38 PM
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Press poll for the jury rehearsal



Obviously this isn't really anything in terms of what the juries are gonna give but great to see Eleni landslide and Zibbz come across so well. Oops at Netta but as Lex said she's had the overhype from the fan press etc. so it's not such a shock here. I really hope can storm the juries and qualify wub.gif
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ScottyEm
post May 7 2018, 09:51 PM
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Switzerland 3rd, Israel 12th. The press centre can jog on... now just imagine if this top 19 in some way reflected the outcome?!
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Esmerelda
post May 7 2018, 11:31 PM
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I remember the press poll had Blanche on 0 points last year in the semi.
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