With Gordon Brown likely to ask The Queen for a dissolution of Parliament on Tuesday for a May 6th election I think we should have a thread to discuss everything General Election related. I hope that's okay with the two mods here. :)

 

So after a narrowing of the polls recently, two new polls just out tonight suggest a widening of the Tory lead and a Tory overall majority.

 

Angus Reid

CONSERVATIVES 38

LABOUR 27

LIB DEMS 20

Andy Cooke calculator: Conservative majority of 60

 

YouGov

CONSERVATIVES 39

LABOUR 29

LIB DEMS 20

Andy Cooke calculator: Conservative majority of 56

Edited April 3, 201015 yr by Victor Meldrew

Of course the only poll that matters is the one on election day. There's so much talk around political blogs and forums about a hung parliament but I firmly think the Tories will win with a comfortable overall majority.

Could we have a Portillo moment in 2010 with a high-profile minster or ex-minister losing his or her seat?

 

Well it may well be Children's Secretary Ed Balls, who defends the newly-created Morley and Outwood seat with a notional 8,669 majority. He's the Cabinet minister most at risk.

 

Former Home Secretary Jacqui Smith is even more at risk and defends a 2,163 majority in Redditch. I feel sure she'll lose her seat and can't wait to see that!

Edited April 3, 201015 yr by Victor Meldrew

Could we have a Portillo moment in 2010 with a high-profile minster or ex-minister losing his or her seat?

 

Well it may well be Children's Secretary Ed Balls, who defends the newly-created Morley and Outwood seat with a notional 8,669 majority.

An 8,669 majority is pretty damned safe in Morley and Outwood. Wouldn't that require a swing of about 13% to overturn? The Tories aren't doing THAT well in marginals...

An 8,669 majority is pretty damned safe in Morley and Outwood. Wouldn't that require a swing of about 13% to overturn? The Tories aren't doing THAT well in marginals...

 

Yes but it means he's the Cabinet minister most at risk.

With Gordon Brown likely to ask The Queen for a dissolution of Parliament on Tuesday for a May 6th election I think we should have a thread to discuss everything General Election related. I hope that's okay with the two mods here. :)

 

So after a narrowing of the polls recently, two new polls just out tonight suggest a widening of the Tory lead and a Tory overall majority.

 

Angus Reid

CONSERVATIVES 38

LABOUR 27

LIB DEMS 20

Andy Cooke calculator: Conservative majority of 60

 

YouGov

CONSERVATIVES 39

LABOUR 29

LIB DEMS 20

Andy Cooke calculator: Conservative majority of 56

That isn't the latest YouGov or the latest Angus Reid. The latest YouGov is 39/31/19, Angus Reid 37/28/22...

 

YouGov's pretty unreliable as it still tries to take into account the 'Shy Tory' vote, which is, er, probably vastly outweighed by the 'Shy Labour' vote this time around :lol:

 

ICM seems a bit more believable in that it seems to show the Chancellors debate as having had some sort of effect - most people seem to agree that Cable won, and it's reflected in 38/29/23...

 

Overall though, I'm pretty certain we're still going to see a hung parliament, with Labour teaming up with the Lib Dems. Which I would very much welcome!

Yes but it means he's the Cabinet minister most at risk.

Darling has a majority of about 7,200 off the top of my head. I need to check others...

Yeah, Liam Byrne's got one of 5,500, but he won by about 700 votes in the by-election the year before. No idea how safe his seat is, but I'd say he's most likely (and he'd lose it to the Lib Dems anyway).

Interesting to see the Lib-Dems polling better after Cable's performance on Monday. They usually go up during the election campaign too due to increased exposure. I'm sure the Tories will be attacking them more as they could well deny Cameron a majority.

Yeah, Liam Byrne's got one of 5,500, but he won by about 700 votes in the by-election the year before. No idea how safe his seat is, but I'd say he's most likely (and he'd lose it to the Lib Dems anyway).

 

 

One paper today says to forget the Cabinet as it thinks Joe Public wants to see Jacqui Smith beaten more than anyone else!

 

I'm going to sleep all day Thursday and then stay up all night. Should be an interesting night!

Edited April 3, 201015 yr by Victor Meldrew

Jacqui Smith is likely to lose. A defeat for Ed Balls (which doesn't seem likely) wouldn't be anything like a Portillo moment. Portillo was defending a majority of 14500 and had a much higher profile than Balls.

 

Another former Home Secretary, Charles Clarke, could lose Norwich South to the Lib Dems.

 

Because of boundary changes it's hard to be precise about how many gains the Tories need to win a majority. However, on one estimate they need 111 gains. That means they need to win Morecambe and Lonsdale (Lab maj 5000, swing required 6%) and every seat with a smaller majority. Assuming they fail to take some of the Lib Dem seats and some of the harder Labour seats as well as the seats where they start in third place, we get roughly to Renfrewshire East (Lab maj 6500, swing required 7%). To get a comfortable majority they need to win seats like Bristol East (Lab maj 7500, swing required 8.25%). Just beyond that are the two seats (Crewe and Norwich N) which the Tories won in byelections.

Actually, I reckon the fact that the Tories are terrified of a hung parliament means that they won't go for the Lib Dems at all, just in case! It's going to be a very interesting campaign...

Does anyone think the three live televised debates, on BBC1, ITV1 and Sky could win or lose the election for Labour or Tories? How important will they be do you think? Could Cameron's performance mean the difference between a hung parliament and a Tory overall majority?

Edited April 3, 201015 yr by Victor Meldrew

Does anyone think the three live televised debates, on BBC1, ITV1 and Sky could win or lose the election for Labour or Tories? How important will they be do you think? Could Cameron's performance mean the difference between a hung parliament and a Tory overall majority?

 

Hopefully everyone will see how much of a smarmy git he is and vote against him. Generally don't Election Days slightly favour the current government as some people chicken out of protest voting?

The scum made a song and dance the other day about Labour leaflets not have Gordon Brown on it, my local Torie candidate posted his bull$h!t leaflet through earlier and it fails to mention the eton prick anywhere on it.

 

It doesn't do anything really apart from say oooh look at me i'm posing outside Cupar Train Station. :/

 

 

I'm in one of the safest Lib Dem seats in the country, Sir Ming will get 50-60% of the vote in my region easily. Labour are useless and everyone votes Lib Dem to ensure the Tories don't stand a chance, they only get the land owners/some of St Andrews anyway.

 

 

 

I'm hoping by the next election we'll be approaching a stage where the Lib Dems are actually considered as a real election candidate.

 

 

Up North, the best seats to aim for are the SNP one's, even those with a huge majority. The SNP have made a complete f*** up of Scotland at Holyrood, i think they'll find people deserting them in droves come the next scottish election

The scum made a song and dance the other day about Labour leaflets not have Gordon Brown on it, my local Torie candidate posted his bull$h!t leaflet through earlier and it fails to mention the eton prick anywhere on it.

 

It doesn't do anything really apart from say oooh look at me i'm posing outside Cupar Train Station. :/

I'm in one of the safest Lib Dem seats in the country, Sir Ming will get 50-60% of the vote in my region easily. Labour are useless and everyone votes Lib Dem to ensure the Tories don't stand a chance, they only get the land owners/some of St Andrews anyway.

I'm hoping by the next election we'll be approaching a stage where the Lib Dems are actually considered as a real election candidate.

Up North, the best seats to aim for are the SNP one's, even those with a huge majority. The SNP have made a complete f*** up of Scotland at Holyrood, i think they'll find people deserting them in droves come the next scottish election

 

That's bound to be bad for the Tories then cos those seats will be split between Lib Dems and Labour?

The scum made a song and dance the other day about Labour leaflets not have Gordon Brown on it, my local Torie candidate posted his bull$h!t leaflet through earlier and it fails to mention the eton prick anywhere on it.

 

It doesn't do anything really apart from say oooh look at me i'm posing outside Cupar Train Station. :/

I'm in one of the safest Lib Dem seats in the country, Sir Ming will get 50-60% of the vote in my region easily. Labour are useless and everyone votes Lib Dem to ensure the Tories don't stand a chance, they only get the land owners/some of St Andrews anyway.

I'm hoping by the next election we'll be approaching a stage where the Lib Dems are actually considered as a real election candidate.

Up North, the best seats to aim for are the SNP one's, even those with a huge majority. The SNP have made a complete f*** up of Scotland at Holyrood, i think they'll find people deserting them in droves come the next scottish election

It's interesting how the perception of the SNP has changed over the last year or so. Only a year ago the assumption was that they might take seats from Labour. Now it's assumed they may well lose seats.

That's bound to be bad for the Tories then cos those seats will be split between Lib Dems and Labour?

Pretty much. The Tories only have 1seat north of the boarder anyway. :o

 

It's interesting how the perception of the SNP has changed over the last year or so. Only a year ago the assumption was that they might take seats from Labour. Now it's assumed they may well lose seats.

In the past year the $h!t's really hit the fan for them. It's pretty much been reviled that their election promises were gimmicks and lies. They've been hit by scandal after scandal, personally i'm loving it. The sooner that smarmy ass is out of a position of power the better.

Have to admit, although I promised myself I wouldn't vote for the two main parties, I'm thinking now I probably will vote Labour... now that the Tories are (finally) making some actual pledges, the more I hear of them, the more turned off I am by them. I guess my working-class roots made me see sense in the end. I might even do some leafletting for them (I am a gap-year student with no job afterall... :) ).

Edited April 3, 201015 yr by Danny

Have to admit, although I promised myself I wouldn't vote for the two main parties, I'm thinking now I probably will vote Labour... now that the Tories are (finally) making some actual pledges, the more I hear of them, the more turned off I am by them. I guess my working-class roots made me see sense in the end. I might even do some leafletting for them (I am a gap-year student with no job afterall... :) ).

 

an example of what ive said all along, when it comes down to it and dispite the polls, boy cameron simply isnt electable, hes full of hot air and is not a credible pm.