Is this the end of the LibDem soufflé surge? Tomorrow's News of the World has an Ipsos-Mori poll – conducted the day after the second debate – putting things back to where they were pre-debates: Tories with a six point lead over Labour and the LibDems lagging seven points behind Labour, i.e. 36-30-23. This is broadly where Mori had them in March.

 

The polls are in a state of flux, to be sure. But Ipsos did a full, 1,200 weighted sample, telephone poll. Even on this basis, Cameron would be 42 seats short of a majority. But this is the best news he's had since the first TV debate – and a sign that he might yet pull through with a majority.

 

Yet other polls in tomorrow's Sundays suggest that there is still some rise in the LibDem soufflé. ComRes for Sindy has Con 34 Lab 28 LD 29. As John Rentoul puts it: "three-horse race, Labour third"

Ben Page from Mori has been on Sky News to discuss this poll. Apparently he came about as close as he could to rubbishing his own organisation's poll, in particular pointing out that roughly one poll in 20 is a rogue. In a General Election campaign that means roughly one rogue poll per week.

Is this the end of the LibDem soufflé surge? Tomorrow's News of the World has an Ipsos-Mori poll – conducted the day after the second debate – putting things back to where they were pre-debates: Tories with a six point lead over Labour and the LibDems lagging seven points behind Labour, i.e. 36-30-23. This is broadly where Mori had them in March.

 

The polls are in a state of flux, to be sure. But Ipsos did a full, 1,200 weighted sample, telephone poll. Even on this basis, Cameron would be 42 seats short of a majority. But this is the best news he's had since the first TV debate – and a sign that he might yet pull through with a majority.

 

Yet other polls in tomorrow's Sundays suggest that there is still some rise in the LibDem soufflé. ComRes for Sindy has Con 34 Lab 28 LD 29. As John Rentoul puts it: "three-horse race, Labour third"

There's now another reason to dismiss this as a rogue. Only 10% of the sample said they voted Lib Dem last time compared with the 22.5% who actually did so. Some pollsters adjust for this, Mori don't.

From BBC's website - all Sunday's polls:

 

Ipsos Mori/News of the World poll: Lib Dems on 23% (down nine), Labour second with 30% (up two) and the Conservatives in the lead on 36% - up four.

 

ComRes for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror: It also puts the Tories in first place, but on 34% (down one), followed by the Lib Dems on 29% (up two) with Labour third on 28% (up three).

 

An ICM poll of 1,020 people for the Sunday Telegraph: the Conservatives on 35% (up two points on last Sunday), Labour on 26% (down two) and the Lib Dems on 31% (up one).

 

YouGov for the Sunday Times: the Tories on 35% (up two on last week), with the Lib Dems down one on 28% and Labour down three on 27%.

From BBC's website - all Sunday's polls:

 

Ipsos Mori/News of the World poll: Lib Dems on 23% (down nine), Labour second with 30% (up two) and the Conservatives in the lead on 36% - up four.

 

ComRes for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror: It also puts the Tories in first place, but on 34% (down one), followed by the Lib Dems on 29% (up two) with Labour third on 28% (up three).

 

An ICM poll of 1,020 people for the Sunday Telegraph: the Conservatives on 35% (up two points on last Sunday), Labour on 26% (down two) and the Lib Dems on 31% (up one).

 

YouGov for the Sunday Times: the Tories on 35% (up two on last week), with the Lib Dems down one on 28% and Labour down three on 27%.

 

them maths dont add up.... :unsure: what am i missing?

them maths dont add up.... :unsure: what am i missing?

Don't add up in what way? They don't add up to 100% because of all the minor parties. Similarly, the plus and minus figures don't add up to zero because of people switching between the major parties and the minor ones. You would generally expect a drift away from the minor parties as the election approaches. It's interesting to note that some of these polls show a move in the opposite direction.

them maths dont add up.... :unsure: what am i missing?

Plaid Cymru, the snp, The Greens, UKIP etc.

There seems widespread misunderstanding of what the polls are for. Opinion polls are not to gauge public opinion but to influence it.

 

What do we make of Clegg's commets today? I really don't think he was ruling out a coalition with Labour; I think he was choosing his words very carefully. I think he was saying that, if the Lib Dems get more votes than Labour, then he Clegg would expect to be the PM in their coalition; and if Labour get more votes than the Lib Dems (but less than the Tories), Clegg would be willing to let Brown or someone else in Labour be the PM in their coalition.

 

I'm still very sure that the Lib Dems will ally with Labour. It would just be crazy for the Lib Dems to go with the Tories when they're extremely reluctant to bring in electoral reform and when they've behaved absolutely disgustingly towards Clegg in the last week. Even if Clegg himself was leaning towards the Tories, the rank-and-file centre-left Lib Dems just wouldn't allow it.

What do we make of Clegg's commets today? I really don't think he was ruling out a coalition with Labour; I think he was choosing his words very carefully. I think he was saying that, if the Lib Dems get more votes than Labour, then he Clegg would expect to be the PM in their coalition; and if Labour get more votes than the Lib Dems (but less than the Tories), Clegg would be willing to let Brown or someone else in Labour be the PM in their coalition.

 

I'm still very sure that the Lib Dems will ally with Labour. It would just be crazy for the Lib Dems to go with the Tories when they're extremely reluctant to bring in electoral reform and when they've behaved absolutely disgustingly towards Clegg in the last week. Even if Clegg himself was leaning towards the Tories, the rank-and-file centre-left Lib Dems just wouldn't allow it.

Yeah, I interpreted it as this too. Clegg would be CRAZY to go for the Tories if he has any hope of electoral reform.

What do we make of Clegg's commets today? I really don't think he was ruling out a coalition with Labour; I think he was choosing his words very carefully. I think he was saying that, if the Lib Dems get more votes than Labour, then he Clegg would expect to be the PM in their coalition; and if Labour get more votes than the Lib Dems (but less than the Tories), Clegg would be willing to let Brown or someone else in Labour be the PM in their coalition.

 

I'm still very sure that the Lib Dems will ally with Labour. It would just be crazy for the Lib Dems to go with the Tories when they're extremely reluctant to bring in electoral reform and when they've behaved absolutely disgustingly towards Clegg in the last week. Even if Clegg himself was leaning towards the Tories, the rank-and-file centre-left Lib Dems just wouldn't allow it.

I think if Clegg says he would ally with Labour he will lose votes fast. There are more anti-labour voters then anti-conservative voters. So he has to not commit and basically be happy to get the best deal from either party to form a coalition.

Yeah, I interpreted it as this too. Clegg would be CRAZY to go for the Tories if he has any hope of electoral reform.

Electoral reform will be one of the things that are bargained for whenever coalition talks happen(or not whatever is the case).

What do we make of Clegg's commets today? I really don't think he was ruling out a coalition with Labour; I think he was choosing his words very carefully. I think he was saying that, if the Lib Dems get more votes than Labour, then he Clegg would expect to be the PM in their coalition; and if Labour get more votes than the Lib Dems (but less than the Tories), Clegg would be willing to let Brown or someone else in Labour be the PM in their coalition.

 

I'm still very sure that the Lib Dems will ally with Labour. It would just be crazy for the Lib Dems to go with the Tories when they're extremely reluctant to bring in electoral reform and when they've behaved absolutely disgustingly towards Clegg in the last week. Even if Clegg himself was leaning towards the Tories, the rank-and-file centre-left Lib Dems just wouldn't allow it.

I've been saying the same for the last few days. Why do people automatically assume that Brown or Cameron will be PM? If the Lib Dems get more votes than Labour then Clegg will be perfectly entitled to say that one of the conditions of a deal with Labour is that he is PM - even if Labour have more ministers. So the slogan becomes "Vote Clegg, get Clegg".

All irrelevant as Cameron will be PM on May 7th with a small overall majority. I'm willing to exchange name and address via PM with anyone who will bet me on that.

I can see the LibDems telling both sides to do one and there being a minority Government.

 

Up here in Holyrood that's what the LibDems did. Both Labour and the SNP were after them and the Libs turned them both down. The SNP was because they wouldn't drop their xenophobic independence policy and i can't remember why they wouldn't side with Labour.

All irrelevant as Cameron will be PM on May 7th with a small overall majority. I'm willing to exchange name and address via PM with anyone who will bet me on that.

 

Then I will officially sacrifice my cat to the great god Imhotep.

All irrelevant as Cameron will be PM on May 7th with a small overall majority. I'm willing to exchange name and address via PM with anyone who will bet me on that.

 

I re-iterate what I said the other day: unless Brown or Clegg is filmed p***ing on Diana's grave in the next two weeks, it ain't happening.

 

What happened to the predicted 100+ majority btw?

I can see the LibDems telling both sides to do one and there being a minority Government.

 

Up here in Holyrood that's what the LibDems did. Both Labour and the SNP were after them and the Libs turned them both down. The SNP was because they wouldn't drop their xenophobic independence policy and i can't remember why they wouldn't side with Labour.

The isn't much different between the 3 parties, nothing as dividing as independence anyway.

I think the chances are slightly higher of a Lib-Cons alliance rather then a Lib-Lab, if nothing else because the Liberals would instantly lose some credibility with a vote for change and get Labour again. A Lib-lab alliance could be on the cards if Brown stood down, but I can't see him doing that in a coalition.

Edited April 25, 201015 yr by Ricky

All irrelevant as Cameron will be PM on May 7th with a small overall majority. I'm willing to exchange name and address via PM with anyone who will bet me on that.

There are plenty of people on Betfair willing to rip you off give you a good bet, how about you head on over there.

The isn't much different between the 3 parties, nothing as dividing as independence anyway.

I think the chances are slightly higher of a Lib-Cons alliance rather then a Lib-Lab, if nothing else because the Liberals would instantly lose some credibility with a vote for change and get Labour again. A Lib-lab alliance could be on the cards if Brown stood down, but I can't see him doing that in a coalition.

 

OTOH, if it was a Lib-Lab coaltion, they could atleast say that the majority of the public had voted for a centre-left government. A Lib-Tory alliance would have no mandate whatsoever.

The isn't much different between the 3 parties, nothing as dividing as independence anyway.

I think the chances are slightly higher of a Lib-Cons alliance rather then a Lib-Lab, if nothing else because the Liberals would instantly lose some credibility with a vote for change and get Labour again. A Lib-lab alliance could be on the cards if Brown stood down, but I can't see him doing that in a coalition.

But that's where things could be different if Nick Clegg led the coalition rather than Brown. Brown could be offered something like the Foreign Office