Figures obtained by Newsnight prove the Tories soft-peddled their Oldham campaign to prop up the Lib Dems - despite being by far the wealthiest party, the Tories spent half as much on their campaign as did Labour and the Lib Dems, and even spent £4000 less than UKIP! Proof if ever there was that the Lib Dems are fast becoming a client party to the Tories - propped up when it suits their masters, but mercilessly trashed when it doesn't (e.g. in the No to AV campaign, where the Tories are apparently happy to let "AV = Clegg and tuition fees" be the main argument; and in the many Tory-Lib marginals at the next election).

It proves no such thing. Only this week the Lib Dems gained a seat from the Tories in a local byelection.

 

The fact that the Tories didn't put up much of a fight in Oldham isn't exactly a secret. It was plain for all to see. I suspect the Lib Dems and Tories will spend roughly the same as each other in Barnsley (i.e. as little as they can get away with without being accused of not fighting a serious campaign).

Poll for the Barnsley by-election unsurprisingly indicates Labour are on course for a landslide win in what has always been a safe seat for them - they're estimated to get around 63% (up 16% on last May's general election), while the Tories are a very distant second on 13%. The Lib Dems, who beat the Tories to second place last time, could struggle to hold onto their deposit - they're put on 6%, down 11% from the election and only slightly ahead of UKIP.

That would put the Labour and Tory votes roughly the same as in the 2005 election with the Lib Dem vote well down. I suspect the turnout will be very low which could mean this poll is not particularly accurate (unless they've made adjustments depending on the likelihood to vote).

Apparently the turnout in Barnsley was 36.5%. Any party that does badly is bound to point to this and say that their supporters knew they couldn't win so they stayed at home.

This was today? Oh well, at least I can hear the results at a more respectable time.

I think Labour will only have a modest increase in their share of the vote... probably to about 52%. Apparently UKIP may have come second.

My town of birth. There's more chance of me becoming a Buzzjack Admin (no chance) than there was of Labour not winning here.

My town of birth. There's more chance of me becoming a Buzzjack Admin (no chance) than there was of Labour not winning here.

I think we can all agree with that :lol:

Interesting that the Lib Dem representative at the count is Tim Farron, the party president. Normally a party expecting a bad result would put up someone lower down the rankings.

I think we can all agree with that :lol:

 

 

Thought you would. :naughty: The Labour candidate actually knocked on my mum's door yesterday. :o She's never met Roy Mason or Eric Illsley in her life. Anyway he's a very tall chap and "quite charming" she said. He asked who she was voting for and she said "You"

I'd forgotten that Roy Mason was a Barnsley MP. From the comments made by party reps on the BBC it does look like UKIP have come second although it is likely to be a very distant second.

I'd forgotten that Roy Mason was a Barnsley MP.

 

 

Yeah, former Northern Ireland Secretary. He's been retired as an MP for years yet still has Special Branch armed protection officers 24/7 and his home is like a fortress. :rolleyes: They say he's still at risk of assassination from Irish extremists. One of the few politicians apart from former Prime Ministers to still have 24 hour armed protection.

Edited March 4, 201114 yr by Common Sense

It looks like the BNP have sadly come third, with the Tories fourth and Lib Dems fifth. Humilation for both Coalition parties if true.

Yeah, former Northern Ireland Secretary. He's been retired as an MP for years yet still has Special Branch armed protection officers 24/7 and his home is like a fortress. :rolleyes: They say he's still at risk of assassination from Irish extremists. One of the few politicians apart from former Prime Ministers to still have 24 hour armed protection.

Yes, I can remember him as NI Secretary and Defence Secretary. It's a shame that someone well into his eighties still needs tight security.

It looks like the BNP have sadly come third, with the Tories fourth and Lib Dems fifth. Humilation for both Coalition parties if true.

 

 

:o Well I know the town well and there is a lot of anger against immigrants. I'd say half of Barnsley is probably racist too. :(

Edited March 4, 201114 yr by Common Sense

It looks like the BNP have sadly come third, with the Tories fourth and Lib Dems fifth. Humilation for both Coalition parties if true.

Given the circumstances of the byelection it's inevitable that they would do relatively well. Anyone wanting to vote against Labour because of Eric Illsley wouldn't want to vote Tory or Lib Dem. I suspect this will be a one-off. When there are byelections caused by the death of the sitting MP, it will be different. Labour will be expected to do well.

The Lib Dems have come SIXTH!

The Lib Dems have come SIXTH!

 

That is shocking. Do the Lib Dems normally do well in Barnsley, or is this typical of the region?

That is shocking. Do the Lib Dems normally do well in Barnsley, or is this typical of the region?

 

They came second last time, beating the Tories by 6 votes. It's a Labour heartland, to be sure, but the Lib Dems usually get around 15% - the fact they've dived to below 5% is very worrying.

 

Labour got 61%, up 14% from the general election. UKIP came second as predicted (have they ever done that before?), Tories third, BNP fourth, an independent candidate fifth.

That is shocking. Do the Lib Dems normally do well in Barnsley, or is this typical of the region?

The Lib Dems have never done very well in Barnsley. Using my normal rules, UKIP came a very distant second and then four candidates came joint sixth.