May 10, 201114 yr Author Time for a second bash at predicting now we have the running order and all the songs... SF1 Position [previous prediction] · Points · Country 01 [07] · 171 · Azerbaijan 02 [03] · 130 · Hungary 03 [01] · 117 · Russia 04 [02] · 098 · Finland 05 [04] · 092 · Norway 06 [06] · 083 · Serbia 07 [05] · 069 · Greece 08 [11] · 061 · Lithuania 09 [10] · 058 · Georgia 10 [09] · 057 · Armenia - 11 [08] · 054 · Turkey 12 [12] · 052 · Poland 13 [16] · 049 · Croatia 14 [14] · 044 · Switzerland 15 [13] · 039 · Albania 16 [18] · 017 · Iceland 17 [15] · 011 · San Marino 18 [19] · 009 · Portugal 19 [17] · 007 · Malta This is going to be an absolute bloodbath on the 10th, isn't it? Here's my analysis which has focused far more on voting patterns (be they related to countries, positions, types of song etc.) than my previous ones: SF1 01 [01] · 114 · Azerbaijan 02 [02] · 110 · Hungary 03 [04] · 109 · Finland 04 [14] · 097 · Switzerland 05 [07] · 087 · Greece 06 [05] · 082 · Norway 07 [11] · 076 · Turkey 08 [03] · 069 · Russia 09 [09] · 069 · Georgia 10 [06] · 060 · Serbia -------------------- 11 [15] · 057 · Albania 12 [16] · 056 · Iceland 13 [12] · 054 · Poland 14 [10] · 048 · Armenia 15 [13] · 044 · Croatia 16 [08] · 044 · Lithuania 17 [17] · 020 · San Marino 18 [18] · 020 · Portugal 19 [19] · 009 · Malta The closest I came to calling the final outcome with 8/10, but I still missed Switzerland and Iceland the first time, and overpredicted Norway (but then, unless your name is Keith Mills, you probably did too) and just about did so for Armenia the first time and Turkey the second (fair enough for both given they were judged on previous positions!). Hopefully we should get equally beautiful almost correct predictions for SF2 as I did for both, which almost wholly cleared out the dreck... Anyway, some random predictions I'll make for now - Ireland, Iceland and Portugal will qualify. Well, one in one out isn't too bad!
May 11, 201114 yr I'm going to make a prediction for semi 2: Bosnia-Herzegovina Austria Netherlands Belgium Slovakia Ukraine Moldova Sweden Cyprus Bulgaria Macedonia Israel Slovenia (Haven't listened to this much but I've heard good things...) Romania Estonia Belarus Latvia Denmark Ireland Slovakia, Belarus and maybe Bulgaria could be qualifiers too....bit uncertain there. Out of those I predicted, Netherlands, Denmark and Israel are probably the most in danger. I think we could see a Armenia/Turkey style result for Ukraine & Moldova tomorrow night.
May 11, 201114 yr Yes please. Armenia/Turkey out, now lets get rid of Ukraine's cure for insomnia :D I STILL have no idea how it goes after all these months, whenever it comes on shuffle I feel like I've never heard it before - so so boring... I do feel like they might still slip into the final though :( My semi 2 predictions though, bearing in mind I only got 7/10 for semi 1; Bosnia-Herzegovina Austria Netherlands Belgium Slovakia Ukraine Moldova Sweden Cyprus Bulgaria Macedonia Israel Slovenia Romania Estonia Belarus Latvia Denmark Ireland Certainties for me are Estonia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Denmark. Then the likely's are Austria, Slovenia, Sweden, Romania, Ireland and sadly - Ukraine. The final position could go to any of Netherlands, Moldova, Cyprus and Israel I think, but I'm taking a punt on The Netherlands as they deserve it for putting more effort in a la Switzerland. And frankly, Moldova and Cyprus don't imo. As for Israel, I still think it's forgettable and will be overshadowed by just about everything. If it wasn't by Dana it would be lucky to finish above last in the semi. As it is, I think it may finish 11th...
May 11, 201114 yr My prediction for Semi Final 2. I expect at least three of my predicted qualifiers to be wrong, as per usual :lol: 01. Denmark 02. Estonia 03. Bosnia & Herzegovina 04. Romania 05. Cyprus 06. Slovenia 07. Ukraine 08. Sweden 09. Austria 10. Israel --- 11. Ireland 12. Moldova 13. Bulgaria 14. Latvia 15. Netherlands 16. FYR Macedonia 17. Belarus 18. Slovakia 19. Belgium It's either Israel or Ireland for 10th place imo. I'd like to see both going through, and that may happen if Cyprus doesn't engage with the audience. At the moment though, they are looking incredibly strong. Ukraine have the ultimate gimmick, so I think they'll go through despite the throwaway song.
May 11, 201114 yr Author What's the Ukrainian gimmick? I haven't cared enough about the track to watch the rehearsal. I'm still not seeing why you think Cyprus is a qualifier :lol:
May 11, 201114 yr What's the Ukrainian gimmick? I haven't cared enough about the track to watch the rehearsal. I'm still not seeing why you think Cyprus is a qualifier :lol: They've bought along the sand artist from Ukraine's Got Talent. 518XP8prwZo It'll be very effective, but it will mean that nobody will notice Mika at all :lol: The backdrop for Cyprus looks amazing, although they do have a wailing woman that may scare all the voters away ala Poland 2010. I think it'll score well with the Balkans anyway.
May 11, 201114 yr Author They've bought along the sand artist from Ukraine's Got Talent. 518XP8prwZo It'll be very effective, but it will mean that nobody will notice Mika at all :lol: The backdrop for Cyprus looks amazing, although they do have a wailing woman that may scare all the voters away ala Poland 2010. I think it'll score well with the Balkans anyway. Oh gosh, that's absolutely stunning. Ukraine sailing into the final then :( I'm thinking the fact it transforms into dirgey rock (which has never done well at the contest, only just squeaking through for Bosnia last year - and that wasn't particularly dirgey) will be the death of Cyprus. Not to mention a strong lack of culturally friendly votes...
May 11, 201114 yr Ukraine :rolleyes: Typical pulling out the (admittedly amazing) gimmicks to mask the crap song. Will the juries really vote for it based on what's happening behind her on stage though? They're supposed to focus on the song/vocals. As for the televoters, I can't imagine myself in any situation picking up the phone to vote for a country just because they've got some interesting prop on stage - hopefully others will feel the same way.
May 11, 201114 yr Semi 1 01. Russia 02. Azerbaijan 03. Hungary 04. Turkey 05. Greece 06. Finland 07. Serbia 08. Norway 09. Armenia 10. Georgia Final 05. Azerbaijan 07. Hungary 09. Russia 11. Finland 13. Greece 14. Norway 15. Turkey 16. Serbia 21. Armenia 25. Georgia Not too bad predictions wise, must say though - I was shocked at Switzerland (and to a lesser extent Lithuania) going through.
May 11, 201114 yr For SF2, my predictions are (in no particular order): Denmark Estonia Ireland Belarus Israel Austria Sweden Ukraine Slovenia Bosnia-Herzegovina With Romania just missing out, I think if Ireland didn't have such a good position, they wouldn't get through.
May 11, 201114 yr Yes please. Armenia/Turkey out, now lets get rid of Ukraine's cure for insomnia :D I STILL have no idea how it goes after all these months, whenever it comes on shuffle I feel like I've never heard it before - so so boring... I do feel like they might still slip into the final though :( My semi 2 predictions though, bearing in mind I only got 7/10 for semi 1; Armenia and Turkey missing out had made me more confident that Ukraine will fail to qualify. You said it yourself last night, nobody is safe anymore. Performing 6th and coming after another ballady type song it should easily get lost. That said the song is so dull it doesn't need any help getting lost. :zzz: I get the feeling people are predicting a Ukraine qualify based on ideas that were snuffed out and put to bed in semi one. (i.e There are countries that will always qualify) Edited May 11, 201114 yr by Sabrewulf
May 11, 201114 yr Despite Turkey falling out in the semis, I would still say that Greece, Ukraine and Russia are 'safe as houses' when it comes to qualifying every year. Definitely wouldn't mind being proven wrong, given that all have been off the mark these past few years imo =\. Turkey is a shock, but Armenia have never sent a song that didn't deserve to qualify - so it's difficult to say whether they were always 'safe' qualifiers. The same goes for Azerbaijan, we can't really judge if they're 'always' going to be safe, given that this is only their third contest and they've really pulled out the stops every year so far.
May 11, 201114 yr Despite Turkey falling out in the semis, I would still say that Greece, Ukraine and Russia are 'safe as houses' when it comes to qualifying every year. Definitely wouldn't mind being proven wrong, given that all have been off the mark these past few years imo =\. Turkey is a shock, but Armenia have never sent a song that didn't deserve to qualify - so it's difficult to say whether they were always 'safe' qualifiers. The same goes for Azerbaijan, we can't really judge if they're 'always' going to be safe, given that this is only their third contest and they've really pulled out the stops every year so far. I agree with you on Armenia and Azerbaijan, I think people only assumed that they're 'safe as houses' based on the fact that they've always comfortably finished top ten in the final and usually amass their high votes from exactly the same countries every year. I still think that Greece, Ukraine and Russia *could* potentially DNQ at some point, but they'd literally need to send a typical Macedonian dad-rock type entry, surely they wouldn't even get away with it? I know Russia's entry last year was dire but it was almost so bad it was good (it wasn't good - but it stood out). A nice slice of dad-rock drawn in 2nd would SURELY send any country out? But you never know now - I always thought that Turkey were one of the untouchables but obviously not, I think bringing back the juries is potentially the best thing that ever happened to the contest, as once again it's more of a 'song contest' than a spectacle contest, although ask me again if on Sunday after the UK have finished 3rd, we find out that we won the televote and came 6th with juries. I may not be so complimentary about them :lol:
May 11, 201114 yr I wouldn't class Azerbaijan really as a country that always coasts through just by showing up. They've always sent songs that deserved to make it. (albeit in varying degrees but still)
May 11, 201114 yr DEEEEENG DAWNG (in final version) is a TRACK OF LIFE http://www.moopy.org.uk/forums/images/icons/disco.gif If it doesn't make it I may have to SLIT JEDWARD'S FACES OPEN Can't you just do this regardless? :( I was just away to say exactly this :lol:
May 11, 201114 yr I was just away to say exactly this :lol: Faces will be slit, Dana has been ATROCIOUS in the rehearsals. Pair that with a song that's almost as much as a non-event as Ukraine's and you have a pretty comprehensive non-qualifier!
May 11, 201114 yr what will be the shock NQ tomorrow, Stella style? ha? I'll put my money on Eric Saade :kink:
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