September 23, 201113 yr I keep reading that arguement but it doesn't make any sense to me. :lol: If song A is more likely to qualify than song B then it certainly is automatically more like to win as well since song B doesn't have any chance to win if it doesn't qualify. Or not? :unsure: Some songs have an obvious fanbase - i.e. alternative/indie songs with no pop crossover appeal but huge indie appeal. These are NEVER going to win by just racking up a maximum of 70/80 points overall, but if it's in a semi with everyone likely to appreciate it then whilst it has a high chance of qualifying, it still has little chance of winning. Hence you'll usually find the really obscure alternative songs right towards the bottom of my odds even if I think they've got a decent chance of qualifying. Pop songs are more likely to fly in the final once they're exposed to the other mass of pop voters in the opposite semi.
September 23, 201113 yr That was what I wanted to say but I couldn't put it into words! It made sense in my head anyway :P
September 23, 201113 yr Some songs have an obvious fanbase - i.e. alternative/indie songs with no pop crossover appeal but huge indie appeal. These are NEVER going to win by just racking up a maximum of 70/80 points overall, but if it's in a semi with everyone likely to appreciate it then whilst it has a high chance of qualifying, it still has little chance of winning. Hence you'll usually find the really obscure alternative songs right towards the bottom of my odds even if I think they've got a decent chance of qualifying. Pop songs are more likely to fly in the final once they're exposed to the other mass of pop voters in the opposite semi. Hence the reason I went with a different route :D dance with a bit of rap, or rather 3 tracks rolled into 1 :lol:
September 23, 201113 yr Odds to win from Bwci-Fyrddin: 7/1 Dalisska: Roniit- Now Or Never Finally somebody who knows what they're talking about. :P
September 23, 201113 yr Odds from SéyetBet: 2/1 Hendinia: Velvet- Love Struck 5/2 Kopečka: Loreen- Sober 7/2 Herzebania: Tove Styrke- Call My Name 4/1 FYR Vojvodina: Voltaire Twins- Animalia 5/1 Séyetana: Emmon- Distance 6/1 FSR Rontvia: Lise Karlsnes- Red Hot 7/1 Numayania: Electric Lady Lab- Touch Me 7/1 Allecian: Simon Curtis- Flesh 7/1 Ashton: Morten Breum feat Sissie Marie- Every Time (You Look At Me) 8/1 Juranabaijan: Same Difference ft Alcazar- Karma Karma 8/1 Batidas: Andre Ola feat. Hèlene- Erase You 10/1 Usfland: Marlon Roudette- New Age 10/1 Dalisska: Roniit- Now Or Never 10/1 Ojnoj: Destinee & Paris- True Love 11/1 St Joliver: Medina- Synd For Dig 12/1 Botanikka: Zowie- Smash It 12/1 Daehun: IU- Good Day 15/1 Avalonia: Sweetbox- Fever 15/1 Yuxhaaq: Vanessa Amorosi- Amazing 15/1 Zechonia: Alexz Johnson- Trip Around The World 15/1 Fanadminaj: Havana- Dance Like That 16/1 Persephonia: Joe Goddard feat. Valentina- Gabriel 16/1 Greenfroze: Alex Winston- Velvet Elvis 16/1 Caerfyrddia: Rebekka Karijord- Wear It Like A Crown 18/1 Espen: Melissa Horn- Jag saknar dig mindre och mindre 18/1 Tinnmark: The Deer Tracks- Ram Ram 18/1 Lievant: DWNTWN- Transition 20/1 N-Lazone: Hot Chelle Rae- Tonight Tonight (Riddler Radio Edit) 20/1 Kluminican Republic: Wanessa (FT Bam Bam)- Sticky Dough 20/1 Lotopialand: Liviu Hodor ft Mona- Sweet Love 20/1 Farahtyn: Brock Zanrosso- Perefect Storm 20/1 Kylienips: Kirsty feat. Igor Blaska- Green 20/1 Quotosibb: Cassie Graves ft. NSG- Fairy Tales 22/1 PRoJ: Charlotte Gainsbourg- Terrible Angels 22/1 Fljótavík: Astrid Williamson- Pour 25/1 Unovia: HyunA- Bubble Pop! 25/1 Quintessa: Bodies Of Water - Like A Stranger 28/1 Aquafina: Klass & Bodybangers- I Like 28/1 Budtar: He Is We (FT Owl City)- All About Us 28/1 Isconia: Burning Hearts- Into The Wilderness 30/1 Bignia-Zaragovina: Jedward- Everyday Superstar 35/1 Mezidinia: Diana Vickers- Jumping Into Rivers 36/1 Palmyra: The Potbeleez- From The Music 38/1 Unoshake: The Reason 4- Take It All 38/1 Xanaga: The Feeling- Say No 40/1 Ramrynia: Ben Folds- Still Fighting It 40/1 Elëdan: Orka & Eivør Pálsdóttir- 'Fjøllini standa úti' (live) I'm still excited that it seems like I'm among the frontrunners (and so I've lowered the odds following a mass flurry of betting on Séyetana :D)
September 23, 201113 yr Opening odds from BETidas: 2/1 Kopečka: Loreen- Sober 3/1 Hendinia: Velvet- Love Struck 3/1 Herzebania: Tove Styrke- Call My Name 7/2 Juranabaijan: Same Difference ft Alcazar- Karma Karma 4/1 FSR Rontvia: Lise Karlsnes- Red Hot 9/2 Ojnoj: Destinee & Paris- True Love 6/1 St Joliver: Medina- Synd For Dig 8/1 Seyetana: Emmon- Distance 10/1 Usfland: Marlon Roudette- New Age 10/1 Dalisska: Roniit- Now Or Never ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 12/1 Caerfyrddia: Rebekka Karijord- Wear It Like A Crown 12/1 Batidas: Andre Ola feat. Hèlene- Erase You 12/1 Numayania: Electric Lady Lab- Touch Me 14/1 Yuxhaaq: Vanessa Amorosi- Amazing 14/1 Botanikka: Zowie- Smash It 15/1 Daehun: IU- Good Day 16/1 Fanadminaj: Havana- Dance Like That 18/1 Lotopialand: Liviu Hodor ft Mona- Sweet Love 20/1 Kylienips: Kirsty feat. Igor Blaska- Green 20/1 Espen: Melissa Horn- Jag saknar dig mindre och mindre 22/1 FYR Vojvodina: Voltaire Twins- Animalia 24/1 Lievant: DWNTWN- Transition 24/1 Greenfroze: Alex Winston- Velvet Elvis 25/1 Ashton: Morten Breum feat Sissie Marie- Every Time (You Look At Me) 25/1 Kluminican Republic: Wanessa (FT Bam Bam)- Sticky Dough 26/1 Isconia: Burning Hearts- Into The Wilderness 26/1 Fljótavík: Astrid Williamson- Pour 28/1 Quotosibb: Cassie Graves ft. NSG- Fairy Tales 30/1 Persephonia: Joe Goddard feat. Valentina- Gabriel 30/1 Avalonia: Sweetbox- Fever 32/1 Tinnmark: The Deer Tracks- Ram Ram 32/1 Mezidinia: Diana Vickers- Jumping Into Rivers 34/1 Farahtyn: Brock Zanrosso- Perefect Storm 36/1 Budtar: He Is We (FT Owl City)- All About Us 36/1 Unovia: HyunA- Bubble Pop! 38/1 Allecian: Simon Curtis- Flesh 40/1 Palmyra: The Potbeleez- From The Music 40/1 Unoshake: The Reason 4- Take It All 42/1 Aquafina: Klass & Bodybangers- I Like 44/1 PRoJ: Charlotte Gainsbourg- Terrible Angels 44/1 Quintessa: Bodies Of Water - Like A Stranger 45/1 Bignia-Zaragovina: Jedward- Everyday Superstar 48/1 Zechonia: Alexz Johnson- Trip Around The World 50/1 Elëdan: Orka & Eivør Pálsdóttir- 'Fjøllini standa úti' (live) 54/1 N-Lazone: Hot Chelle Rae- Tonight Tonight (Riddler Radio Edit) 58/1 Xanaga: The Feeling- Say No 60/1 Ramrynia: Ben Folds- Still Fighting It
September 23, 201113 yr Author I've managed to have odds from 7/1 to 38/1. But I'm still liking my chances :)
September 23, 201113 yr 32/1 Mezidinia: Diana Vickers- Jumping Into Rivers Best odds yet :D thanks lol
September 23, 201113 yr Pretty much around the 4th-6th area in the majority of the odds and I'd be ecstatic with that, the front runners are all ridiculously strong this month (even if I did know all of them before the contest :drama:) I still see it as Kopecka's to lose with Herzebania very much the next most likely victors but I can't ignore the pure pop whitewash that happened last month so they may find themselves trailing in behind Hendinia and Ojnoj...
September 23, 201113 yr Pretty much around the 4th-6th area in the majority of the odds and I'd be ecstatic with that, the front runners are all ridiculously strong this month (even if I did know all of them before the contest :drama:) I still see it as Kopecka's to lose with Herzebania very much the next most likely victors but I can't ignore the pure pop whitewash that happened last month so they may find themselves trailing in behind Hendinia and Ojnoj... I genuinely think you've got a very strong chance of being top 5, definitely top 10. From my odds, I think the winner will be amongst my top 6.
September 23, 201113 yr Two sets of odds where I've been within the 5 most likely winners? :drama: This does not happen the Juranabaijan... EVER. Well, maybe with Agnes... :P
September 24, 201113 yr OH LOOK AT XANAGA AT THE BOTTOM OF MOST ODDS. Quelle surprise. But then my last two contests I was bottom of most leaderboards and still managed to qualify. Maybe it will happen again.
September 24, 201113 yr I'm going to be SO MAD if Batidas beats me, I was going to send Andre Ola but everyone said it was tragic :(
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