The thing is, with "Surfin' Bird" it was a joke campaign whereas "Smells Like Teen Spirit" is far more faithful to the formula that worked two years ago. The RATM group never passed a million members and while there were a lot of multi-buys, I know a load of people who joined the group after it was announced as #1 (don't ask me why, I don't know either) which cancels them out. So the conversion rate (ie. what percentage of members actually downloaded the song) was well over 50%.

 

By Sunday the Nirvana page will probably be pushing 150k members of which I'd be shocked if two thirds didn't download it. I have a funny feeling they'll be #2, either the Military Wives song will be as big as everyone's expecting OR Little Mix will hold up far better than expected. I can't see both of those happening for some reason.

 

At least Nirvana will get a new peak out of it as well :D

The thing is, with "Surfin' Bird" it was a joke campaign whereas "Smells Like Teen Spirit" is far more faithful to the formula that worked two years ago. The RATM group never passed a million members and while there were a lot of multi-buys, I know a load of people who joined the group after it was announced as #1 (don't ask me why, I don't know either) which cancels them out. So the conversion rate (ie. what percentage of members actually downloaded the song) was well over 50%.

 

By Sunday the Nirvana page will probably be pushing 150k members of which I'd be shocked if two thirds didn't download it. I have a funny feeling they'll be #2, either the Military Wives song will be as big as everyone's expecting OR Little Mix will hold up far better than expected. I can't see both of those happening for some reason.

 

At least Nirvana will get a new peak out of it as well :D

 

Glory hunters :D

 

There's no way of telling the conversion rate really, my guess is as good or bad as anybody else's, I know for a fact that I downloaded three different versions of it during xmas week and I know that there were others who were doing way more than that, boasting on the page that they'd downloaded it ten times - different versions from different download sites to ensure that they counted. The likes of Amazon, 7Digital and Play had probabaly never seen so much business :lol: I wonder if the Nirvana song will be offered at 29p on Amazon like Rage was?

By Sunday the Nirvana page will probably be pushing 150k members of which I'd be shocked if two thirds didn't download it. I have a funny feeling they'll be #2, either the Military Wives song will be as big as everyone's expecting OR Little Mix will hold up far better than expected. I can't see both of those happening for some reason.

 

At least Nirvana will get a new peak out of it as well :D

 

My Top 3 prediction:

1. Military Wives 2. Little Mix 3. Nirvana.

Glory hunters :D

 

There's no way of telling the conversion rate really, my guess is as good or bad as anybody else's, I know for a fact that I downloaded three different versions of it during xmas week and I know that there were others who were doing way more than that, boasting on the page that they'd downloaded it ten times - different versions from different download sites to ensure that they counted. The likes of Amazon, 7Digital and Play had probably never seen so much business :lol: I wonder if the Nirvana song will be offered at 29p on Amazon like Rage was?

 

Hopefully. Their record label are also re-releasing a physical copy so that could have made the difference if sales weren't going to be so massive :lol:

Wednesday Update

 

4-11 Military Wives Choir

9-2 Little Mix

20-1 Nirvana

25-1 Damien Rice

40-1 Bar

 

Major move in the Military Wives choir direction in the last 24 hours. I think it's a done deal now.

Will be a strange feeling to have a genuine huge selling xmas #1 that isn't in any way X Factor related (or anti X Factor!), the last was Band Aid 20 in 2004. I wonder what will happen next year, if the winner's single is scheduled to come out on a week other than xmas week again then I can honestly see some buzz returning surrounding the xmas #1. I reckon there'll be a lot more acts going for it than we've had at any point since 2003 which was the last seemingly wide open race (even though in hindsight two songs dominated and the rest were miles behind). In fact, even if the X Factor winner's single DOES still come out on xmas week, the ratings and general interest/sales of related singles dive might encourage others to have a go anyway.

 

I get the feeling that Simon Cowell is done with aiming directly for the xmas #1 anyway, he can see that his xmas #1 domination has just about run its course, the singles market has caught up. It's ok if you're selling 300k of a single in a dead market, like 2006/7 were - nobody could possibly compete, but as general sales increase and X Factor sales decrease, the two will soon meet in the middle and Simon's realised this - the winners are now a lot more vulnerable. It's a lot less risky to just release the single on a normal week and let the winner have their #1 regardless, like Little Mix will get this week, but probably wouldn't have if up against Military Wives in their first week.

Hopefully. Their record label are also re-releasing a physical copy so that could have made the difference if sales weren't going to be so massive :lol:

 

According to the release schedule it is getting a 7inch release!

Will be a strange feeling to have a genuine huge selling xmas #1 that isn't in any way X Factor related (or anti X Factor!), the last was Band Aid 20 in 2004. I wonder what will happen next year, if the winner's single is scheduled to come out on a week other than xmas week again then I can honestly see some buzz returning surrounding the xmas #1. I reckon there'll be a lot more acts going for it than we've had at any point since 2003 which was the last seemingly wide open race (even though in hindsight two songs dominated and the rest were miles behind). In fact, even if the X Factor winner's single DOES still come out on xmas week, the ratings and general interest/sales of related singles dive might encourage others to have a go anyway.

 

I get the feeling that Simon Cowell is done with aiming directly for the xmas #1 anyway, he can see that his xmas #1 domination has just about run its course, the singles market has caught up. It's ok if you're selling 300k of a single in a dead market, like 2006/7 were - nobody could possibly compete, but as general sales increase and X Factor sales decrease, the two will soon meet in the middle and Simon's realised this - the winners are now a lot more vulnerable. It's a lot less risky to just release the single on a normal week and let the winner have their #1 regardless, like Little Mix will get this week, but probably wouldn't have if up against Military Wives in their first week.

 

Im still not sure if the MWC will actually happen, can someone still hit the top spot with just cd sales?

Im still not sure if the MWC will actually happen, can someone still hit the top spot with just cd sales?

 

All signs are pointing towards it being a huge (albeit unexpected) download seller too. Stranger things have happened...

 

We won't know until Sunday but I bet it goes to at least #2 on iTunes, and I reckon it will go to #1 on there actually. No song destined to sell hundreds of thousands of CD singles would end up selling zero downloads, the markets aren't that misaligned I don't think :o

After this year no more Facebook campaigns for Christmas number ones, Rage was something but the novelty has worn off now.

All signs are pointing towards it being a huge (albeit unexpected) download seller too. Stranger things have happened...

 

We won't know until Sunday but I bet it goes to at least #2 on iTunes, and I reckon it will go to #1 on there actually. No song destined to sell hundreds of thousands of CD singles would end up selling zero downloads, the markets aren't that misaligned I don't think :o

 

Two words: Peter Kay.

 

The Children In Need Medley did bugger all on downloads. Would have been a different story had music video sales counted towards the chart, although I have no idea how many of those it sold.

I've just read your Who will get the 2011 Christmas number one? article, interesting reading

 

It's by far and away the most popular article to ever appear on my blog :lol: Getting some interesting discussion going on in the comments section of that post!

It's by far and away the most popular article to ever appear on my blog :lol: Getting some interesting discussion going on in the comments section of that post!

Maybe because you posted the link on your Facebook and all your friends have delved into your lovely treat? :P

That's where I first discovered it. I love your blog posts, I always wanna read more! I agree though, Christmas #1 really is the Military Wives' race to lose now. It's looking to sell 100k plus CD's (:wub:) and with the number of likes it apparently has on iTunes (I don't have ping - or whatever it's called - downloaded) I can see it being at least challenging Little Mix/Coldplay this time next week!

Indeed, Facebook, Twitter and the link's in my sig on here - it seems to have worked, it's had thousands of views. There must be something else though because my blog posts usually get about 50-100 views each :o

Well you have built up more followers since? Maybe people are linking it to other websites because they found it so interesting? Or people searching the Christmas #1 race this year? The possibilities are endless! :P

Thursday Update

 

1-4 Military Wives Choir

5-1 Little Mix

20-1 Nirvana

25-1 Damien Rice

40-1 Bar

 

Just a shedload more money for the Military Wives Choir meaning Little Mix pushed out from 9-2 to 5-1. Almost any price you like outside the top two now.

What the hell is 'Bar'? (Sorry if this has already been answered).

What the hell is 'Bar'? (Sorry if this has already been answered).

 

pretty much anyone else who hasn't been quoted for a bet in the odds

Well you have built up more followers since? Maybe people are linking it to other websites because they found it so interesting? Or people searching the Christmas #1 race this year? The possibilities are endless! :P

 

Just checked my stats and a lot of people are coming from Buzzjack (woo my sig works!) but most seem to be coming from Facebook or Google. It seems to have had a few shares on the former whilst if you type in 'christmas number one 2011' on Google it comes up on the 4th page, which isn't bad promo I guess! Often with the blog I feel like I'm talking to myself so it's great that people are reading this article, although I only really write something when I have something to write about, hence why I only update it two or three times a month sometimes :lol:

The thing is, with "Surfin' Bird" it was a joke campaign whereas "Smells Like Teen Spirit" is far more faithful to the formula that worked two years ago.

 

Eh? Surfin' Bird existed a long time before Family Guy - I assumed people had chosen it because it's a damn good song, and one that people don't readily have a copy of.

 

Is there really anyone out there who still needs a copy of Smells Like Teen Spirit? It was a pretty rotten choice if you ask me.

 

As for the money being donated to charity? Somehow I can't really see Courtney Love turning up anywhere with a big cheque...unless it's got her name on it.