Oops, I should have put Labour a poor fourth - and have now edited it.

Lib Dem 2% ahead of UKIP, according to Twitter sources.

The Ukip candidate has come close to accepting she isn't going to win so it looks like she is second

Thornton Lib Dem 13,342

James Ukip 11,571

Hutchings Con 10,559

O'Farrell Lab 4,088

 

I think the Tory candidate's speech means she doesn't expect to stand again

After her DISASTER of a campaign I don't see her standing again either!

The UKIP getting so close to actual power really does scare me.

The UKIP getting so close to actual power really does scare me.

 

Don't worry, it's more than likely just a protest vote. Very sad though really for modern politics, they only have 1 policy and that one is completely flawed.

Don't worry, it's more than likely just a protest vote. Very sad though really for modern politics, they only have 1 policy and that one is completely flawed.

They've had a bit more than one policy for a while now. They're effectively running on an old school Tory manifesto.

 

But on the upside, even if they do win a by-election it won't really be power in any meaningful sense.

Well, you can't deny that his political image is not up to scratch at all. He's not even convinced with himself and a lot of other prime ministers have had belief in what they are saying. Maybe his image was good at the start, but when it came to it, he couldn't deliver on his hype. The Tories won't get into power next time, unless they elect a new effective leader (Adam Afriyie is a good example) for the next election.

 

I think that, despite all the cuts, Cameron will get a small overall majority, maybe under 20 or even single figures, in 2015.

The squeezing of the Lib Dem vote means that it'll be back to the old days of a percentage point here or there swinging it either way for the big parties. That said, I can't imagine Cameron managing a majority over 20 whereas Labour could easily stretch to 50 odd with the right campaign.

But does anyone seriously see Ed Milliband as a potential Prime Minister? I thought John Major was lightweight but Milliband?

So? If you're implying that John Major and Ed Miliband are both lightweight, Ed Miliband has a good chance of being the next Prime Minister if John Major is anything to go by.

So? If you're implying that John Major and Ed Miliband are both lightweight, Ed Miliband has a good chance of being the next Prime Minister if John Major is anything to go by.

 

The difference being that John Major inherited the role of Prime Minister following Thatcher's ousting instead of being elected to the role.

Edited March 3, 201312 yr by Brett-Bloodsport

But does anyone seriously see Ed Milliband as a potential Prime Minister?

 

I certainly don't.

 

To be fair to John he did win the 1992 GE, albeit with a small majority, when most people thought Labour would get in.

Edited March 3, 201312 yr by Common Sense

The pain of a parliamentary system is that a Prime Minister (or the equivalent abroad) is expected to appear presidential when there's no constitutional reason why they should. Ed will probably be PM in 2015, by default really but it's the strength of the Cabinet behind the PM that's far more important.

I think that, despite all the cuts, Cameron will get a small overall majority, maybe under 20 or even single figures, in 2015.

After your insistent predictions of a 100+ majority for Cameron at the last election, why do you bother?

I've been thinking about this and it wouldn't surprise me if the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats dropped out of the three main political parties at the next election. I'm predicting that Labour and UKIP will be in the top three at the next election as well.

After your insistent predictions of a 100+ majority for Cameron at the last election, why do you bother?

 

 

Well he did become PM so I was partly right. :lol:

I've been thinking about this and it wouldn't surprise me if the Conservatives [...] dropped out of the three main political parties at the next election. I'm predicting that Labour and UKIP will be in the top three at the next election as well.

You genuinely think there is any chance in the world that a party which got 10.5m votes at the last election and which has consistently stayed at around 30% in the opinion polls even at its worst could finish fourth at the next election?

 

There is the very small chance UKIP could beat the Lib Dems on votes at the next election, but absolutely zero chance they'll beat them on seats. Their best result to date is second place with 27% in one by-election. If they can't even win a seat at a by-election, a time when a protest vote for all intents and purposes doesn't matter at all and can be made freely, they aren't going to be winning any seats (or indeed as many votes) at the next election when protest votes could make a difference to the result, and when a lot of the people who are voting UKIP would much rather see Cameron as PM than Ed Miliband.