Another last place for me? REALLY?

 

TSSSSK.

 

Another last place for me? REALLY?

 

TSSSSK.

Why do you worry so much about it? You know the results.

 

Unless we are right and you know it. :D

Final odds from Betvia:

 

5/2 Tinnmark: Laleh - Some Die Young

3/1 Botanikka: Emma Hewitt - Colours

5/1 Ashton: Elen Levon - Like A Girl In Love

5/1 Numayania: Asteroid Galaxy Tour - Heart Attack

6/1 ChrIseland: Annah Mac - Girl In Stilettos

7/1 FYR-Vodjvodnia-On-The-Wold: Frida Hyvonen - Terribly Dark

8/1 FSR Rontvia: Gossling - Wild Love

10/1 Elëdan: Emma Marrone - Non E L'Inferno

10/1 Farahtyn: Serebro - Mama Lover

12/1 Sangria: Gabrielle - Høster

12/1 Syndare: Butterfly Boucher - Not Fooling Around

12/1 Letland: Max Barskih - Dnace

14/1 PRoJ: Lianne La Havas - Forget

15/1 Kopečka: Lisa Miskovsky - Lover

15/1 Seyetana: Xenia - Sing You Home

18/1 Land Of Jack: Karmin - Brokenhearted

20/1 Hendinia: Smith & Thell - Kill It With Love

20/1 Fljótavík: Rachel Sermanni - The Fog

22/1 Batidas: Goodwill & Hook n Sling - Take You Higher

25/1 Budtar: Ariana Grande - Put Your Hands Up

25/1 Skall: Active Child - Diamond Heart

28/1 Persephonia: Azari & III - Reckless (With Your Love)

30/1 Scherzland: Jessica Lowndes - Nothing Like This

33/1 Allecian: Graph Gonzales - Eyes In The Dark

35/1 Ramyrnia: Kristina Maria - Our Song Comes On

35/1 Terra Avium: Kaskade ft. Skylar Grey - Room For Happiness

35/1 Juranabaijan: The Disco Boys - Around The World

40/1 Kluminican Republic: CSS - Hits Me Like A Rock

50/1 UnoShake: San Cisco - Awkward

Wow, it's good to see Gabrielle is climbing up and now she's in the top 10 in some odds although she was in midtable recently. I hope she can do it (top 10) but I think it will be very hard because only a few points will separate the low top ten from 20th place.

Why do you worry so much about it? You know the results.

 

Unless we are right and you know it. :D

I'm just not used to being predicted last... I'm usually around the 20/1 mark and that's my comfort zone - the odds for The Fog have been by FAR the worst I've ever received and I don't quite see what makes her track so much worse than some of the other tracks I've sent previously. I think even Ljusår got better odds! :D

 

(Plus I'm just trying to keep the discussion going as it seemed to have all fallen a bit flat...)

Ljusår was superb. Rachel, unfortunately, is not. Plus there is the host's curse to think of :kink:

The host's curse?

 

I genuinely like Rachel's song, it's like a more leftfield KT Tunstall track to me...

That'll be why I don't like it then :lol: Always found her a bit overrated.

 

Yes the host of a contest has a tendency to do really badly the following year. It's similar in Eurovision, except it's the previous contest's host that suffers.

Didn't Rich win 2 contests in a row before, how come the curse didn't apply for that then? :lol:

The host's curse is a bit of a myth. As many hosts as have flopped in the next contest have done well, Mdice also won the contest that they hosted and two on the trot in XV/XVI and Kopecka came 2nd twice in a row last year etc...

 

The only truth in it is that sometimes when hosts know that they have an auto qualification and don't have to worry about a DNQ they throw something completely different out there, just for the sake of it, because they know that everybody competing will have to listen to it and it won't get stuck in the wrong semi etc...hence why I sent Example in XVIII, of course I knew it was never going to smash, but that was far from the aim of sending it! Many hosts have taken similar risks when they auto qualify and they almost never pay off.

 

The other argument for the curse is that the host sends a song that would ordinarily DNQ. By the time that you get to the final, everybody's already got their favourites to support and the unheard track, unless it's a 10/10 to a lot of people, falls by the wayside, so if you get a host sending a 7/10 or 8/10 (in the mind's of the majority, obviously tastes are subjective), the track tends to finish bottom five in the final. That's why I took the risk the last couple of times I've hosted to take part in the semis, and gather some fans at that stage, assuming that they find my entry strong enough, rather than being all but ignored in the final. I bet Ria's Over You would have done MUCH worse than 9th if I'd let it autoqualify, it was more of a grower, and going through the semis definitely helps the growers out.

Hmm. Batidas finished 9th after our win so that doesn't seem that bad in retrospect. Especially following that with 4th place for two consecutive consecutive.

 

Then that pesky Gotye came along and ruined it all for me. :drama: :P

 

Actually, I didn't autoqualify when I sent 'Black Video' so that might explain why it did well.

The host's curse is a bit of a myth. As many hosts as have flopped in the next contest have done well, Mdice also won the contest that they hosted and two on the trot in XV/XVI and Kopecka came 2nd twice in a row last year etc...

 

The only truth in it is that sometimes when hosts know that they have an auto qualification and don't have to worry about a DNQ they throw something completely different out there, just for the sake of it, because they know that everybody competing will have to listen to it and it won't get stuck in the wrong semi etc...hence why I sent Example in XVIII, of course I knew it was never going to smash, but that was far from the aim of sending it! Many hosts have taken similar risks when they auto qualify and they almost never pay off.

 

The other argument for the curse is that the host sends a song that would ordinarily DNQ. By the time that you get to the final, everybody's already got their favourites to support and the unheard track, unless it's a 10/10 to a lot of people, falls by the wayside, so if you get a host sending a 7/10 or 8/10 (in the mind's of the majority, obviously tastes are subjective), the track tends to finish bottom five in the final. That's why I took the risk the last couple of times I've hosted to take part in the semis, and gather some fans at that stage, assuming that they find my entry strong enough, rather than being all but ignored in the final. I bet Ria's Over You would have done MUCH worse than 9th if I'd let it autoqualify, it was more of a grower, and going through the semis definitely helps the growers out.

I agree with this. The 'curse' is simply just that hosts choose to send songs that would usually DNQ, but because they AQ they can take the risk. I very much doubt that the 'curse' would've applied had Tyron won the contest before Loreen won and Sober AQ'd :P

 

I'm just going to work out the average odds now, so if you still haven't posted yours and you want them to be included - post them within the next 15 minutes or so please :)

BJSC XLII AVERAGE ODDS TO WIN!

 

I have averaged out everyone odds to one decimal place, so where countries have the same odds, the higher country will actually be more favoured than the other :)

 

Also, I have included each country's highest and lowest odds so we can judge which countries are the most consistent or inconsistent!

 

So, here are BJSC's average odds for tonight's final in Fljotavik!

 

01. 4/1 Tinnmark (2/1 - 11/1)

02. 4/1 Botanikka (3/1 - 10/1)

03. 7/1 Ashton (4/1 - 12/1)

04. 9/1 FSR Rontvia (5/1 - 18/1)

05. 12/1 ChrIseland (4/1 - 50/1)

06. 13/1 Numayania (5/1 - 25/1)

07. 13/1 Eledan (8/1 - 20/1)

08. 13/1 FYR Vojvodina-on-the-Wold (7/1 - 35/1)

09. 15/1 Letland (10/1 - 30/1)

10. 18/1 Farahtyn (10/1 - 30/1)

 

11. 23/1 Hendinia (12/1 - 45/1)

12. 24/1 Kopecka (15/1 - 50/1)

13. 25/1 Sangria (10/1 - 40/1)

14. 26/1 Syndare (8/1 - 100/1)

15. 27/1 Batidas (12/1 - 80/1)

16. 27/1 Budtar (12/1 - 50/1)

17. 28/1 Scherzland (18/1 - 42/1)

18. 30/1 Seyetana (15/1 - 75/1)

19. 32/1 Land Of Jack (7/1 - 100/1)

20. 38/1 Terra Avium (25/1 - 60/1)

 

21. 38/1 PRoJ (14/1 - 100/1)

22. 40/1 Allecian (25/1 - 75/1)

23. 43/1 Persephonia (15/1 - 100/1)

24. 44/1 Skall (25/1 - 80/1)

25. 45/1 Kluminican Republic (20/1 - 100/1)

26. 46/1 Fljotavik (18/1 - 125/1)

27. 47/1 Ramrynia (35/1 - 66/1)

28. 51/1 Juranabaijan (30/1 - 100/1)

29. 59/1 UnoShake (25/1 - 100/1)

 

Lots of higher odds this time round as no-one really knows the chances of a majority of countries! Going to be fascinating! :D

Edited March 18, 201213 yr by Ryan741

I like those odds, I'd be quite happy with a top 20 position even if it is just scraping in! :P

:nocheer: Time to dark horse this bitch then.

 

I'm surprised how low Vojvodina are now, but the top 8 looks approximately right. I'm still rather sure it'll be Laleh winning this, let's hope I don't jinx it.

Max Barskih with odds for coming Top10? Hmm... I'm not seeing that happening actually!

 

Laleh is gonna win this one, easily.

15. 27/1 Batidas (12/1 - 80/1)

 

Based on my predictions, I'd say this is relatively fair. I personally predict Batidas to finish somewhere between 16-20. Definitely not top 10 but ultimately don't think 'Take You Higher' will be bottom 8 either (although if that does happen then so be it :D ).

I'm not expecting to finish anywhere near as high as 4th, more like 8th-14th, which would be decent enough (as long as it's a hit! :P)

 

I think it's Tinnmark's to lose though and if Laleh does indeed win, it will be the first time I've EVER lost a winner by not confirming in time :drama:

Bottom 10 seems about right for me. Just pleased I got to the final tbh :lol: