The coalition government is undergoing its first major cabinet reshuffle tomorrow. There are already rumours flying about that Andrew Lansley will lose his post as Health Secretary for ballixing the NHS. Any thoughts on the reshuffle, it's impact etc?

This is rather long and I wrote most of it several weeks ago but these are some thoughts. I didn't get round to finishing it.

 

 

OK, so it seems that Cameron’s first major Cabinet reshuffle will be happening soon, probably shortly after the Olympics are over. All previous reshuffles have been the result of a resignation and have been very limited in scale. That would suggest that this will be the only major reshuffle before the election. So, let’s have a bit of fun and speculate on what might happen.

 

Starting at the top, he is obviously not going to reshuffle himself out of a job (more’s the pity) and it is unlikely that Nick Clegg’s job will change. But what about the rest? This is meant to be a reasonably non-political look at the Cabinet concentrating more on competence rather than whether I agree with what ministers have done.

 

Chancellor - George Osborne. Suspicions before the election that he wasn’t up to the job will have been reinforced by the shambles that was the last Budget. However, the chances of him being sacked from the Cabinet altogether are minimal. He will only be moved if there is to be a change in economic policy and that isn’t going to happen.

 

Foreign Secretary - William Hague. He had a bit of a wobbly start and made a bit of an idiot of himself when he claimed early in the Libyan revolution that Gaddafi had fled the country. However, overall he has grown into the job. When discussing his brief he commands some respect.

 

There has been a suggestion that Hague and Osborne might swap jobs. My guess is that they will both stay put. Hague seems to like his current job and I think he would be reluctant to leave. Similarly, Osborne has shown no sign of any interest in foreign policy. With all that is going on in the world, is it a good idea to have a new Foreign Secretary who would take some time to master their brief?

 

Home Secretary - Theresa May. This job has always been known as one of the most difficult as is largely driven by events. Home Secretaries tend to be judged by their reaction to these events rather than anything proactive they do. May’s latest crisis is the G4S Olympic security fiasco. If she survives this (and I suspect she will as she has generally been successful in pinning the blame on someone else) then she will stay. Besides, Cameron has said that there will be women on one third of Tory ministerial posts by the next election so he can’t afford to sack too many (if any).

 

Justice Secretary - Ken Clarke. Still very much a politician of the old school. He prefers to speak for himself rather than relying on spin doctors. This means the occasional gaffe (e.g. his comments on “real rape”). I suspect he is for the chop. HIs views are unpopular with many in the Tory party and I suspect he will go as a concession to the right wing of the party. His replacement may not be as right wing as some people want but will be more willing to do the leader’s bidding.

 

Business Secretary - Vince Cable. There has been some speculation that he will go but I think he will stay. He remains popular with Lib Dem activists so Clegg cannot afford to lose him unless he chooses to retire.

 

Education - Michael Gove. Whatever you think of what he’s done (and I disagree with just about all of it), it cannot be denied that he has made a difference. He has driven through changes with relatively little fuss. That might suggest a promotion if there is a vacancy. That could be Justice Secretary or, if May goes, Home Secretary.

 

Health - Andrew Lansley. Unlike Gove, Lansley’s reforms have met with strong opposition. Lansley’s inept attempts to defend them haven’t helped. I think he will be moved to a lower profile post.

 

Culture, Media and Sport - Jeremy Hunt. Somehow he has survived the Murdoch / BSkyB saga. My guess is that he will be moved. That’s one reason I think the reshuffle will happen after the Olympics which are part of his remit. A straight swap with Lansley is a distinct possibility. If that happens then I suspect there will be little legislation from either department.

 

There have been some rumours that a Lib Dem may be made Health Secretary with a Tory becoming Business Secretary. That would mean the Lib Dem Health Secretary taking the flak for any problems that arise from Lansley’s changes. Surely Clegg isn’t that daft.

 

Defence - Philip Hammond. He’s been in the job for less than a year so will probably stay.

 

Transport - Justine Greening. She’s also been in the job for less than a year but her position is more interesting. Both coalition parties opposed the building of a third runway at Heathrow. However, there has been speculation that the Tories are rethinking their policy. But Greening is MP for Putney which will be adversely affected by another runway. Therefore, Greening has good constituency reasons for continuing to oppose it. If she is moved or sacked that will be seen as a clear sign of yet another u-turn. Does Cameron really want that? Of course, if policy on Heathrow really is about to change then she will have to leave the Cabinet but that brings us back to the issue of female ministers.

 

Energy and Climate Change - Ed Davey. A difficult one for Clegg. Even under Chris Huhne the department was struggling against Osborne’s hostility to a green agenda. Davey seems to be finding it even more difficult. Here’s a suggestion I’ve not seen anywhere. Cameron gets his way and moves a Lib Dem to Health but the price he pays is that Cable moves to Energy and Climate Change and stands up to Osborne.

 

Scotland - Michael Moore. Unlike Cameron Clegg didn’t make any promise about the number of women holding Lib Dem ministerial posts. However, the number of women MPs (let alone ministers) is embarrassingly low. Making Jo Swinson Scottish Secretary will help to address that even if Moore has done nothing to justify being sacked.

 

Wales - Chery Gillan. Plenty of speculation that she will go, partly because her constituency will be affected by the High Speed rail line to Birmingham. As a constituency MP she has to follow her constituents and oppose it.

 

Cameron has said that he wants more women in the Cabinet. If he dumps Gillan then he needs to promote at least one woman into the Cabinet.

 

It now (this bit is written now rather than several weeks ago) seems certain that David Laws will return to government. He may get some sort of strategic role outside the Cabinet. Labour may kick up a fuss about his expenses but the retaliation is simple. Peter Mandelson.

You missed Environment - Caroline Spelman is off!