Ive said it before - never under estimate the gullibilty stupidity and bigotry of people. History has an endless list of examples to prove it...

It's not surprising that his outrageous statements are helping him rather than hurting him. He STARTED his campaign with the 'Mexicans are criminals and rapists' thing. I don't think there's anything he can say that's so outrageous that it'll lose him his base supporters who are keeping him in the lead.

 

There are still 13 other people in the race on the Republican side anyway. Once people start dropping out more, Trump's frontrunner status will be challenged more. Just a question of whether that even happens before the votes start coming in.

The frightening thing about Trump is that he is still the Republican front-runner only eight weeks away from the first votes. Most people assumed his campaign would have self-destructed by now, but his pronouncements just get more and more extreme.

The key thing to remember is just how many Don't Knows there still are. This year's Republican field is the widest and most notionally qualified* at this stage that there has ever been, which means voteshares are incredibly diffuse among the eight or so vaguely competitive candidates (plus another four that...aren't.). In practice he only has about a sixth of the support of Republican voters currently, which equates to about 7% of US voters all in all? I could probably believe that as an estimate for the number of feral nativists in a given population.

 

 

*yes, laughable considering the state of the GOP currently, but in terms of the fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth best placed candidate of a given field. This year you have sitting Senators and Governors in those slots, whereas in the past typically after fourth you just get a load of mentalists who once read a conspiracy theory and based a bestseller and a campaign around it. Although given that's basically Ben Carson this year...

The key thing to remember is just how many Don't Knows there still are. This year's Republican field is the widest and most notionally qualified* at this stage that there has ever been, which means voteshares are incredibly diffuse among the eight or so vaguely competitive candidates (plus another four that...aren't.). In practice he only has about a sixth of the support of Republican voters currently, which equates to about 7% of US voters all in all? I could probably believe that as an estimate for the number of feral nativists in a given population.

*yes, laughable considering the state of the GOP currently, but in terms of the fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth best placed candidate of a given field. This year you have sitting Senators and Governors in those slots, whereas in the past typically after fourth you just get a load of mentalists who once read a conspiracy theory and based a bestseller and a campaign around it. Although given that's basically Ben Carson this year...

The difference is that, this time, the mentalists are the front-runners. Of course, if the number of candidates is down to about four by the ned of February, support might begin to coalesce behind a slightly more sensible candidate (insofar as there is one).

The difference is that, this time, the mentalists are the front-runners. Of course, if the number of candidates is down to about four by the ned of February, support might begin to coalesce behind a slightly more sensible candidate (insofar as there is one).

My point was more that even the mentalists aside, you would very rarely have ten Senators and Governors in the race at this stage.

I think Rubio will win the general if he can win the primary. But that's a massive if.

I think he'll win the primary but not the general.

By the way, this is some HIGH GRADE PLUTONIUM election wonkery but feast your *.*s on THIS

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/...ctive_tool.html

 

(after that we can chill out with some Campaign Trail)

something similar happened with Barack Obama in 2008, although he arguably did not win the popular vote).

 

???

 

He clearly won the popular vote in the Dem Primaries.

something similar happened with Barack Obama in 2008, although he arguably did not win the popular vote).

 

???

 

He clearly won the popular vote in the Dem Primaries.

He didn't actually win the popular vote in the Democratic primaries in 2008 because of the way the primaries and caucuses are structured - it's across 50 states and on a delegate basis. Hillary got 17.8m votes and Obama got 17.5m votes.

 

Obama's campaign turned strategically maximising delegates from each state's primary and caucus into an art. Basically Hillary managed to win the overall popular vote because of winning resoundingly in the big states like California and New York, but Obama organised well enough that those big wins were weighed out in the delegate count by how much he was killing her in the small states and the caucus states (which didn't count towards the popular vote) where she wasn't putting in as much effort.

 

Plus, given the actual presidential election is done on an electoral vote rather than popular vote basis nobody really took Hillary winning the popular vote as a serious reason why she should've been taken to have won the '08 primaries (also because Florida and Michigan where she racked up big wins got disqualified for reasons it's far too late to go into).

I think he'll win the primary but not the general.

 

 

Agreed. He won't beat Clinton.

I sincerely hope that Donald Trump becomes the next President of the U.S.A. He is a true American patriot and is not afraid to say what a lot of Americans are feeling. That is why Obama is really low in opinion polls - he is not. I think Trump will easily beat Hilary Clinton. A strong leader is needed at this dangerous time in the World with all this terrorism being witnessed on our TV screens week after week. We must face up to cancerous ideologies that are attempting to ruin the world and do something about it. Putting boots on the ground in Syria would be a good first step in my opinion to buttress the air strikes now taking place. ISIL will be defeated but it will take time and a concerted effort by many nations and influential people.

 

Brian

Edited December 10, 20159 yr by Brian Quinn

It's not surprising that his outrageous statements are helping him rather than hurting him. He STARTED his campaign with the 'Mexicans are criminals and rapists' thing. I don't think there's anything he can say that's so outrageous that it'll lose him his base supporters who are keeping him in the lead.

 

http://assets.bwbx.io/images/iiF0kSjBk5jQ/v1/-1x-1.jpg

 

WELP

I sincerely hope that Donald Trump becomes the next President of the U.S.A. He is a true American patriot and is not afraid to say what a lot of Americans are feeling. That is why Obama is really low in opinion polls - he is not.

Obama isn't 'really low' in the opinion polls though - his approval rating is in the high 40s, which is about average for a president (lower than Bill at this stage, but legions higher than Dubya).

 

I think Trump will easily beat Hilary Clinton. A strong leader is needed at this dangerous time in the World with all this terrorism being witnessed on our TV screens week after week. We must face up to cancerous ideologies that are attempting to ruin the world and do something about it. Putting boots on the ground in Syria would be a good first step in my opinion to buttress the air strikes now taking place. ISIL will be defeated but it will take time and a concerted effort by many nations and influential people.

 

Great, but I'm not sure what any of that has to do with electing a man willing to contravene the Constitution to enact racist policies, before we even get to how ludicrously isolated America would be internationally as a result.

I sincerely hope that Donald Trump becomes the next President of the U.S.A. He is a true American patriot and is not afraid to say what a lot of Americans are feeling. That is why Obama is really low in opinion polls - he is not. I think Trump will easily beat Hilary Clinton. A strong leader is needed at this dangerous time in the World with all this terrorism being witnessed on our TV screens week after week. We must face up to cancerous ideologies that are attempting to ruin the world and do something about it. Putting boots on the ground in Syria would be a good first step in my opinion to buttress the air strikes now taking place. ISIL will be defeated but it will take time and a concerted effort by many nations and influential people.

 

Brian

 

 

Agreed. Trump speaks a lot of sense and would make a great President.

Agreed. Trump speaks a lot of sense and would make a great President.

LOL

I did have to laugh at The Donald saying he would run as independent if he wasn't ''treated fairly''. I guess it's okay to dish out racist, sexist, homophobic and all the rest BS, but it's not such a sweet pill to swallow yourself. Not that I'm really worried about him anymore, he's so much of a pantomime figure now that he doesn't really stand a chance, he will run on his own ticket, probably damage whatever Republican does get the nod and make it better for HRC.

People confuse the ability to speak BS rhetoric, which anyone with half a brain can do - and trumpy wumpy clearly has half a brain the inept, innaccurate and dumb statements he makes - with an ability to actual run a country and not cock everything up dubya stylee and just make things worse for everyone.

 

A country of what 300 million and the best they can offer is a hare-brained spoilt bitter twisted billionaire to run the country....? I refer everyone to harrison ford's comment about being President.

 

 

A country of what 300 million and the best they can offer is a hare-brained spoilt bitter twisted billionaire to run the country....?

He certainly isn't the best they can offer.

I mean, it's always easier for a rich white man with connections, no matter his qualifications, to shoehorn himself into politics than it is for pretty much everyone else, but that clearly doesn't mean he's the best or that thousands of others with sincere intentions wouldn't try if they could (or if the odds weren't stacked against them).